Hi BBs. I am 1 week away from my draft. What round should I target Arian Foster and Jacoby Jones in. I love that Houston team this year. Your thoughts

bamamarg - 28 August 2010 07:27 PM

Hi BBs. I am 1 week away from my draft. What round should I target Arian Foster and Jacoby Jones in. I love that Houston team this year. Your thoughts

Bama… I bet you can’t wait for your draft!  It’s exciting to know that the NFL season is just nine days away.  I share the same love for the Houston Texans as you in 2010. I was talking to fellow staff member Allie Fontana over the weekend about how explosive this Houston offense seems to be.  They should be a fun team to watch every Sunday.

While I am not as high on Arian Foster as most people are, he has been impressive in the preseason and had a great game against the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday. Foster showed good speed, he made people miss and hauled in four receptions out of the backfield. No player is climbing up the draft boards at the rate he is and for this very case I think wherever you draft him you will have to overpay.  Foster ranks No.52 in our current Top 150 rankings and is being drafted in Round 5 of most 12-team leagues. I’m not saying the potential isn’t there for him to be a worthy Round 5 pick, but what scares me is that Gary Kubiak is impatient when it comes to running backs fumbling. Foster fumbled late in year in 2009 and had a fumble early in the preseason. While Houston doesn’t have the depth that they had a year ago at RB, it doesn’t mean Kubiak will allow Foster to cough up the football all season long.  My own personal preference is to let another owner take Foster in late Round 4 or early Round 5 and let them ride the roller coaster all season long. Now this doesn’t mean that I think Foster will tank; however, I’d rather use my Round 5 pick on a guy who has a bit more stability. Finally, if Foster did fall to me in Round 6 and I was drafting him as my RB3 I would consider it.

As for Jones, Kubiak continues to say the Texans have three starting wide receivers and Jones had another solid preseason game against Dallas. He is big, physical, can run with the best of them and continues to improve every time he take the field… this is what you want out of a sleeper wide receiver.  Currently, I like him in Round 12-13 of a 12-team league and as a WR5/WR6. The potential is there to exceed expectations, though I am not writing Kevin Walter off like most are.  Remember, Schaub heavily favors Andre Johnson in the passing game and Owen Daniels seems to be getting back on track, so Jones will start the season no more than a fourth or fifth option, behind Johnson, Foster, Daniels and to some degree Walter. 

As much as I like the Texans offense, and think they are going to score tons of points, I still only have complete trust in Johnson and Schaub… and if Daniels proves early on he is healthy you can feel comfortable about him each week. 

Enjoy your draft bamamarg!

Bama… I also wanted to link you to our Top 150 Rankings that we updated today…

http://brunoboys.net/entry/2010-fantasy-football-top-150-rankings/

Marc gave you a pretty thorough analysis there so I don’t have a whole lot to add except to comment on how fast he is rising up draft boards. I loved him three weeks ago when you could grab him in the later flyer rounds but now it’s looking like you are going to have to go 4th round if you want Foster, and to me that’s simply not worth it. I know Marc said five, but seriously, that’s how fast his stock is rising right now. If you want him that bad go for it, but I wouldn’t spend anymore than a 5th round pick.

Actually, sneaky draft strategy if you REALLY want him: when you enter your draft room and are waiting for things to begin, casually say something like “So whose going to overpay for Arian Foster?” and see what happens. Hopefully that’ll give some owners cold feet (though I don’t know how draft savvy your league is), allowing you to get him a little later. No guarantees but it’s worth a shot. I’m going to try it in one of my upcoming drafts.

As far as Jacoby goes, he surely has the talent, just needs the touches. The creme tends to rise to the top in the NFL, however I wouldn’t hold your breath; sometimes it doesn’t happen week one. I’m willing to take him as my WR4, roughly the 11th round.