Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Lane Rizzardini
- Edited by Marc Caviglia

2011 has now drawn to a close, and with the fantasy football season all wrapped up we’re using this last edition of Touch Me, Baby for 2011 to go over the entire season and see what stood out among the numbers.

It was an entertaining year overall, which we started off right by adding more player analysis, ten more tight ends to the chart, and more statistical categories to help make your weekly analysis easier. We watched Jordy Nelson and Victor Cruz emerge out of almost no where to become the leading receivers on their teams and forces in the NFL. We all let Maurice Jones-Drew fall to the second round of our fantasy drafts due to injury concerns, only to see him win the rushing title and rack up the most touches in the league.

We’ll break down some of the biggest standouts from the 2011 season as well as all the interesting facts and lessons we can glean for next season.

It’s never too early to get prepared for the season ahead, so slip into something comfortable and get ready to be touched for the last time this season! Thanks for reading!

**Stat Note: the stat referred to as “Plays” is found by calculating (Carries + Targets)/Total Team Plays**

Running Backs Touches & Targets

	Players	Team	Plays	Carries	Season Carry%	Targets	Receptions	Season Target %	RZ Plays
1	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	407	343	70%	64	43	14%	49
2	Ray Rice	BAL	395	291	63%	104	76	19%	52
3	Arian Foster	HOU	350	278	51%	72	53	15.50%	57
4	LeSean McCoy	PHI	342	273	61%	69	48	12.50%	62
5	Chris Johnson	TEN	341	262	70%	79	57	13.50%	25
6	Michael Turner	ATL	327	301	66.50%	26	17	4%	60
7	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	326	285	64%	41	28	8%	48
8	Steven Jackson	STL	318	260	63.50%	58	42	10.50%	21
9	Frank Gore	SFO	312	282	57%	30	17	7%	57
10	Michael Bush	OAK	303	256	55%	47	37	9%	44
11	Cedric Benson	CIN	295	273	60%	22	15	4%	55
12	Shonn Greene	NYJ	294	253	57%	41	30	7.50%	43
13	Ryan Mathews	SDC	281	222	51%	59	50	10%	21
14	Matt Forte	CHI	279	203	44.50%	76	52	16%	31
15	Willis McGahee	DEN	269	249	46%	20	12	5%	22
16	Reggie Bush	MIA	268	216	46%	52	43	11%	30
17	Beanie Wells	ARI	259	245	63%	15	10	3%	34
18	Rashard Mendenhall	PIT	256	228	52.50%	28	18	5%	40
19	Adrian Peterson	MIN	232	209	47%	23	18	4.50%	38
20	Fred Jackson	BUF	220	170	43.50%	50	39	9%	30
21	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	215	171	42%	44	34	7.50%	33
22	Roy Helu	WAS	211	151	38%	60	49	10%	38
23	LeGarrette Blount	TBB	209	184	53%	25	15	4%	12
24	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	203	142	32%	61	47	12%	21
25	Michael Tolbert	SDC	200	121	28%	79	54	13.50%	49
26	DeMarco Murray	DAL	198	163	40%	35	26	6%	19
27	Darren Sproles	NOS	198	87	20%	111	86	17%	34
28	Peyton Hillis	CLE	195	161	39%	34	22	6%	21
29	Ben Tate	HOU	194	175	32%	19	13	4%	31
30	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	NEP	194	181	41%	13	9	2%	41
31	Daniel Thomas	MIA	181	165	35%	16	12	3.50%	26
32	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	180	155	35%	25	16	5%	13
33	Dexter McCluster	KCC	178	114	23.50%	64	46	13%	12
34	Brandon Jacobs	NYG	175	152	37%	23	15	4%	24
35	Felix Jones	DAL	172	128	31%	44	33	8%	20
36	James Starks	GBP	170	133	34%	37	29	7%	22
37	Pierre Thomas	NOS	169	110	25.50%	59	50	9%	26
38	Jackie Battle	KCC	162	149	30.50%	13	9	3%	18
39	Thomas Jones	KCC	160	153	31.50%	7	5	1.50%	19
40	Ryan Grant	GBP	158	134	34%	24	19	4%	19

Running Back Notes:

1. Of all the big-name running backs that could have led the play total for the season, no one imagined it would be Maurice Jones-Drew, who saw his stock drop severely due to concerns about offseason knee surgery. He also played in the least productive offense in the league which averaged a measly 259.3 yards per game due to having absolutely zero weapons besides Jones-Drew, yet there was the Pocket Hercules blowing through eight-man fronts on his way to the league rushing title. He showed that injury concerns were totally unfounded and once again established himself as one of the best players in the NFL. Fantasy owners will not make the same mistake again.

2. Darren Sproles received less than 100 carries this season, but his value came in the 111 targets he received in the New Orleans Saints pass-happy offense, which led all running backs and would have placed 25th among all wide receivers, absolutely staggering numbers. If you had him in a PPR-league, he was a quality RB2 starter for you all season as he racked up 86 receptions that beat out all but four wide receivers, not just running backs. He is a perfect fit for the New Orleans Saints and should be just as valuable next season in an offense that won’t be slowing down anytime soon.

3. Marshawn Lynch carried the momentum (and probably some New Orleans Saints defenders) from that ridiculous 67-yard touchdown run from the playoffs last season into a breakout 2011 campaign that led to a No. 6 finish in fantasy points among running backs, largely due to an obscene streak in which he scored one or more touchdowns in 10 of the final 13 games of the season. He may not repeat these numbers in 2012, but he must be regarded as a top-15 back for his fierce running style that can lead to a lot of touchdowns for fantasy owners.

4. Matt Forte suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 13 but still managed to finish top-15 in total plays among running backs. This is due largely to his role as the feature back and overall focal point of the Chicago Bears offense, accounting for over 37-percent of the team’s total yardage until he went down. He should have no problem healing up over the offseason and since the Bears will surely have no plans of letting him go, count on more of the same workload for next season, which includes a sizeable amount of work in the passing game and makes him a Round 1 pick in all formats.

5. As usual, we were Shanahaned all season as the Washington Redskins head coach started Tim Hightower at the beginning of the season, then proceeded to go with Ryan Torain, Tashard Choice, even practice-squad back Evan Royster got a crack at things. The big winner at the end of the year though was Nebraska rookie Roy Helu, who emerged as the best of the group once Hightower went down and proved he could handle a sizeable workload with four consecutive weeks of 23-plus carries. Any Mike Shanahan backfield will be tough to deal with, but we continually see how profitable it can be to own one of his guys so it will be important to watch this situation closely in the offseason.

Wide Receivers Targets

	Players	Team	Targets	Receptions	Season Target %	RZ Plays
1	Roddy White	ATL	179	100	30%	29
2	Wes Welker	NEP	173	122	28%	20
3	Calvin Johnson	DET	158	96	24%	24
4	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	154	80	28%	17
5	Brandon Lloyd	STL	150	70	27%	13
6	Dwayne Bowe	KCC	142	81	28.50%	17
7	Brandon Marshall	MIA	141	81	30%	21
8	Pierre Garcon	IND	134	70	25%	16
9	Steve Johnson	BUF	133	76	23%	19
10	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	133	76	22.50%	13
11	Reggie Wayne	IND	132	75	25%	14
12	Victor Cruz	NYG	131	82	22%	11
13	Steve Smith	CAR	129	79	25%	11
14	Antonio Brown	PIT	124	69	23%	10
15	Mike Williams	TBB	124	65	21%	15
16	Nate Washington	TEN	121	74	21%	12
17	Percy Harvin	MIN	120	87	23.50%	18
18	Greg Little	CLE	120	61	21%	8
19	A.J. Green	CIN	115	65	21.50%	17
20	Vincent Jackson	SDC	115	60	20%	11
21	Michael Crabtree	SFO	115	73	25.50%	15
22	Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK	115	64	22%	8
23	Jabar Gaffney	WAS	115	68	19.50%	18
24	Mike Wallace	PIT	114	72	21%	12
25	Nate Burleson	DET	110	73	16.50%	17
26	Marques Colston	NOS	107	80	16%	13
27	Anquan Boldin	BAL	106	57	19.50%	12
28	Jerome Simpson	CIN	105	50	20%	13
29	DeSean Jackson	PHI	104	58	19%	9
30	Dez Bryant	DAL	103	63	18%	13
31	David Nelson	BUF	98	61	17%	15
32	Steve Breaston	KCC	98	61	20%	8
33	Santonio Holmes	NYJ	98	51	18%	13
34	Andre Roberts	ARI	98	51	18%	6
35	Early Doucet	ARI	97	54	18%	11
36	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	96	63	17%	12
37	Plaxico Burress	NYJ	96	45	17.50%	21
38	Jordy Nelson	GBP	95	68	17%	15
39	Santana Moss	WAS	95	46	16%	13
40	Torrey Smith	BAL	95	50	17.50%	8
41	Austin Collie	IND	94	54	18%	12
42	Eric Decker	DEN	94	44	22%	10
43	Damian Williams	TEN	94	45	16%	9
44	Julio Jones	ATL	94	54	16%	8
45	Greg Jennings	GBP	93	61	17%	14
46	Mike Thomas	JAC	91	44	19.50%	6
47	Deion Branch	NEP	87	51	14%	15
48	Doug Baldwin	SEA	85	51	17%	3
49	Titus Young	DET	85	48	13%	8
50	Davone Bess	MIA	85	51	18%	13

Wide Receiver Notes:

1. It looked early on like Wes Welker would easily lead the league in targets, but it is Roddy White who took the title with a late surge where he saw double digit targets for six consecutive games between Week 11 and Week 16. It is his second consecutive season with triple-digit reception totals but more importantly he didn’t tail off like he did last season, bringing some optimism for his 2012 campaign. Unfortunately at age-30, he is struggling with drops and is likely in a declining phase. He could take a major hit in 2012 as Julio Jones emerges as the team’s more explosive receiving threat.

2. Wes Welker may not have had the most targets, but he surely did more with his by racking up 122 receptions to lead the league while finishing second in yards with 1,569, a career high along with his nine touchdowns. These feats are even more astounding considering he is 30-years old and is only a little over one year removed from a major ACL tear. He may not hit these totals again but he will continue to be a high-end option especially in PPR-formats as a major part of the New England Patriots high-flying offense.

3. Calvin Johnson was the story of the beginning of the season as he exploded off the line for 11 touchdowns and five games of 100-plus yards before the Detroit Lions Week 9 bye. He predictably cooled off mightily after that, but it doesn’t do anything to mar his league-leading 1,681 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns, leading to a 44-fantasy point advantage over the next best receiver, Jordy Nelson. Drop off or not, Megatron is by far the best receiver in the league and will be the No. 1 receiver off the board in 2012 drafts.

4. In a more unfortunate story, Mike Williams was a victim of the dreaded sophomore slump as he went from 11 touchdowns in 2010 to just three this season. Much of the blame can be put on Josh Freeman who took a major step back in his development this season but Williams wasn’t exactly his rookie-self either, dropping a significant amount of passes on his way to completely devastating fantasy owners. It will be hard to trust him next season especially with a new coaching staff in place, but knowing his potential he could be a nice sleeper in 2012.

5. At the beginning of the season, Hakeem Nicks was regarded as a top-5 receiver while Mario Manningham was considered a top-sleeper pick. Fast forward to now, and it’s Victor Cruz that finished No. 4 in fantasy points among wide receivers as the New York Giants most productive receiver. Nicks performed well overall but proved to be inconsistent as he posted just as many sub-eight point fantasy totals as he did double-digit games while Manningham apparently isn’t as interested in playing football as we thought. With as little history of success as Cruz has it’s hard to believe he will repeat, but if Manningham doesn’t get his act together Cruz can definitely fulfill the No. 2 receiver spot opposite Nicks, which should be plenty of value to achieve WR2 status.

Tight End Targets

	Players	Team	Targets	Receptions	Season Target %	RZ Plays
1	Jimmy Graham	NOS	149	99	22.50%	26
2	Brandon Pettigrew	DET	126	83	19%	22
3	Rob Gronkowski	NEP	124	90	20%	26
4	Kellen Winslow	TBB	121	75	20.50%	12
5	Jason Witten	DAL	117	79	20.50%	15
6	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	116	80	19.50%	16
7	Dustin Keller	NYJ	115	65	21%	20
8	Aaron Hernandez	NEP	108	75	18%	24
9	Brent Celek	PHI	97	62	17.50%	17
10	Vernon Davis	SFO	95	67	21%	8
11	Jermichael Finley	GBP	92	55	17%	16
12	Jermaine Gresham	CIN	92	56	17%	14
13	Ed Dickson	BAL	89	54	16%	12
14	Greg Olsen	CAR	88	45	17%	11
15	Antonio Gates	SDC	88	64	15%	14
16	Marcedes Lewis	JAC	85	39	18%	13
17	Owen Daniels	HOU	84	54	18%	12
18	Fred Davis	WAS	82	55	14%	8
19	Jared Cook	TEN	81	49	14%	6
20	Heath Miller	PIT	74	51	14%	7
21	Benjamin Watson	CLE	71	37	12.50%	7
22	Visanthe Shiancoe	MIN	70	36	14%	7
23	Dallas Clark	IND	65	34	12%	10
24	Jeremy Shockey	CAR	62	37	12%	7
25	Jake Ballard	NYG	61	38	10%	12
26	Lance Kendricks	STL	58	28	10.50%	7
27	Anthony Fasano	MIA	52	30	11%	6
28	Dennis Pitta	BAL	49	34	9%	5
29	Evan Moore	CLE	47	34	8%	8
30	Scott Chandler	BUF	46	38	8%	12

Tight End Notes

1. Jimmy Graham was touted as a top sleeper pick going into 2011 and he didn’t disappoint. In fact, he probably exceeded expectations by finishing No. 1 among tight ends with 99 receptions and was narrowly beat out by Rob Gronkowski for the league lead in yardage. Between he and Antonio Gates, we’re becoming big fans of tight ends who barely played football in college and Graham will be highly drafted going into next season as the New Orleans Saints most reliable receiver.

2. The only man to exceed Jimmy Graham in scoring, Rob Gronkowski beat out the third-highest scoring tight end (teammate Aaron Hernandez) by a whooping 106 fantasy points. Most of this was due to the record-shattering 17 receiving touchdowns he racked up, the most ever by a tight end. He proved to be an unstoppable force that gave defenses fits and produced for fantasy owners even when Aaron Hernandez was in the lineup, making him a prime target in fantasy leagues in 2012.

3. Scott Chandler was a frustrating conundrum for fantasy owners all season, coming out strong with four touchdowns in his first three games as a heavily-targeted red zone option for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buffalo Bills offense. Of course, when you’re only used in the red zone and your offense sputters you are suddenly not so effective, which is exactly what happened to Chandler as he posted zero fantasy points in each of the following three weeks. He began to be used more between the 20’s before he got hurt Week 13, but unless we see a commitment to using him more often everywhere on the field, his red zone usage won’t give him enough fantasy value to be drafted.