Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Ernie Estrella
- Edited by Marc Caviglia

I often equate fantasy football to managing your retirement portfolio. If you were wise, you would have diversified in a variety of players–some proven, some not so proven. You would have placed your trust in some reliable Fortune 100 veterans and put a small fortune on the up-and-comer. A hot shot in the draft? Perhaps a pre-season warrior? Or maybe you’ve read something about a late-bloomer and then you let him sit on your roster, waiting, hoping, and praying that he is fully integrated into his respected team’s offense by the start of December when you make your playoff run. You’ve been bombarded with mock drafts and laid your trust in cheat sheets; why take more advice? Well, because you don’t just want to do well in your league, you want to win.

Some owners believe that once you’ve assembled your draft, the job is done–that it’s all about managing the lineup. In rare cases, that’s true, but not all leagues or rosters are created equal. Some leagues have shallow benches and let’s face it, not everyone is so lucky. Leagues with 12 or 14 and gulp, 16 teams deep don’t leave much space for roster shuffling. Dynasty leagues love the idea of stowing away someone all-season long and then unleashing them next season and some have allowed owners to throw the proverbial dart at a college player. Now that’s serious long-term investing.

I won’t be going as far into the college game, but like a financial advisor, I will be looking at several teams and seeing what kind of long-term fantasy potential their players have. From their starters to their unknown bench players, I’ll let you know if I’m Bullish on a player, because I’m optimistic about him and think his stock will rise, or if I’m Bearish on those whose stock long term value will eventually fall. A Hold means that the future is being written today, no change in value today or tomorrow. There are a dozen or so more players that will be discovered over the course of the next 16 weeks. We’re hoping to uncover some of them for you, and if someone has already swooped in on these players, then Long Term Investing will encourage you to evaluate other teams in the same manner.

Let’s start with a team every one is talking about: the Washington Redskins. Who wasn’t blown away by their Week 1 mouth-punching defeat of the Saints? Who dey? Dey kicked your ass, Drew Brees, in your house. But are they for real? Washington has an opportunity to raise some eyebrows in the first two months of the season. However, after their Week 10 bye, the Redskins will be tested as five of their last seven games will be against NFC East teams and the other two, Baltimore and Cleveland have stiff defenses.

Quarterbacks

Robert Griffin III - Most owners drafted the Baylor product as their backup. Now they’re wondering if he’s worth starting. Skeptics of Cam Newton asked the same thing last year and time proved there was nothing fleeting about his historic rookie season. Griffin displays similar potential, making the right reads, throwing the ball short, deep, and most of all, accurate–completing 73% of his passes. He had a great command of the offense and showed us a sliver of what that playbook contains. Fantasy owners had to like that Griffin running 10 times, nearly 25% of Washington’s eye-popping 44 rushing attempts. That’s like another touchdown is standard scoring, and that makes him a starter in my book. But like any player, you just have to consider the matchups. The Saints are typically a defense that’s slow on the edges and I’m not ready to say he’ll have the same type of success against divisional foes that will try to plug the run. Unlike Newton though, Griffin’s best weapon may be his head and arm, instead of his legs.
Long-Term Analysis: Extremely Bullish

Rex Grossman and Kirk Cousins - There was some muttering about Cousins being ready if RG3 struggled out of the gates. Grossman was inactive in Week 1 so one ugly hit and Cousins would’ve played. Win or lose, no one is dethroning Griffin in the Nation’s capital. Just remember, he could get hurt running the ball so much.
Long-Term Analysis: Bearish

Running Backs

Alfred Morris - No one knew who would lead the running game for the Redskins. Roy Helu was the starter last season. Evan Royster was announced first on the depth chart after the preseason only to have Morris surprise owners late into the weekend as the starter.  Morris carried the ball 28 times (63% of the carries) for 96 yards and scored two touchdowns, handling the ball in nearly every major situation. He lacked that break away speed though and averaged just 3.4 yards per carry. Take away his one 18-yard run and his average falls to 2.9 yards. It would be much simpler to name Morris the starter but this is Mike Shanahan, who said on Monday, “Morris right now is our starting running back.” Not the biggest endorsement, but at least he’s getting those crucial goal line carries, which in fantasy is gold.
Long-Term Analysis: Slightly Bullish

Evan Royster, Roy Helu and Darrel Young - Each got two carries in the game and Helu was the only Redskins back to have a pass (3 total) thrown his way. Helu is useful in a deficit when Washington needs to generate points quickly. I wouldn’t sell off Helu just yet, but if you can find a back who’s getting more than 5 touches in a game, then I would prefer him over any of these other Redskin backs, for now. 
Long-Term Analysis: Slightly Bearish

Wide Receivers

Pierre Garçon - If you have him, his trade stock is soaring. So if you’re already WR deep, and you’re finding it tough to find weeks where you can play him, then you can move him to strengthen your weaker positions. On the flip side, if you wanted to upgrade your WR position, Garçon will come at a higher price–just remind the owner that his foot is hurt. Yes, Garçon’s foot got injured on that 88-yard touchdown, and it’s unclear as to how or if it will be a problem. He’s had nagging injuries over the years so that is a downside owners should have considered when drafting him, and prospective buyers should know before buying in, but if anything is clear, it’s that Garçon was heavily targeted up until that point.
Long-Term Analysis: Bullish

Aldrick Robinson - Once Garçon went down, Griffin spread the ball around and this was proof that the rookie quarterback should have continued success this year. The most targeted receiver was the pint-sized Robinson (and part of that was no Garçon), working the slot, sidelines and eventually finding him for a 5-yard touchdown. Robinson leapfrogged over established receivers, so that’s significant. If you are in deeper leagues I would add him in immediately, but if your waiver wire is still full of good talent, then I would keep a watch over Robinson over the next few games for a growing trend.
Long-Term Analysis: Bullish

Brandon Banks - the team’s primary returner managed to get one pass thrown his way. While I’m not about to put much stock in a penny-stock type flex player like Banks, if your league is a deep league and scores return yards, he might be worth an extended three or four-week watch.
Long-Term Analysis: Slightly Bullish

Santana Moss - I was surprised in most of my fantasy leagues that the 12-year veteran was an afterthought during the draft. Used in the slot now, Moss was targeted five times and pulled in three receptions for 47 yards. It what will probably be his final season with the team (his contract is back loaded in the final year), the 33-year old Moss may have a greater purpose as a leader for all of these youngsters. Griffin will likely lean on Moss as the season progresses in three-receiver sets, and if the team is playing from behind.
Long-Term Analysis: Hold

Joshua Morgan, Leonard Hankerson, Dezmon Briscoe - In this rotation at the end of the food chain, only Morgan was targeted and thrown to in Week 1 and he was used primarily as a run blocker. Remember that Morgan signed a two-year, $11.5 million contract $7.3 million of which is guaranteed. In an already crowded group of receivers, I don’t see any of these guys occupying a spot on your rosters unless the Redskins undergo a rash of injuries that plague the team.
Long-Term Analysis: Bearish

Tight Ends

Fred Davis - All I can say to Davis owners is to be patient, bench him for a few weeks and hope his plays lie in the deeper chapters of the playbook. He was targeted four times, so that’s encouraging, but I don’t believe that Davis is going to produce prolific numbers in this offense but it’s worth re-evaluating his role before the bye.
Long-Term Analysis: Hold

Logan Paulsen and Niles Paul - Paulsen made the team two years ago as an undrafted free agent and Paul is a converted wide receiver. If Davis is struggling to get more than handful of targets, I wouldn’t invest much into these two.
Long-Term Analysis: Extremely Bearish

Read more Long-Term Investing Articles:

Minnesota Vikings  (click to read)
Miami Dolphins  (click to read)
Washington Redskins  (click to read)