Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Ernie Estrella
- Edited by Marc Caviglia

Like a financial advisor, we will be looking at several teams and seeing what kind of long-term fantasy potential their players have. From their starters to their unknown bench players, We’ll let you know if we’re Bullish on a player, because we’re optimistic about him and think his stock will rise, or if we’re Bearish on those whose stock long term value will eventually fall. A Hold means that the future is being written today,no change in value today or tomorrow. There are a dozen or so more players that will be discovered over the course of the next 16 weeks. We’re hoping to uncover some of them for you, and if someone has already swooped in on these players, then Long Term Investing will encourage you to evaluate other teams in the same manner.

This week we’re talking about the Minnesota Vikings . One by one, Vikings players have drawn more interest in the Bruno Boys Forum and we’ll be shocked if most of their skill players aren’t fantasy football rosters by the end of this week. Should they be? That’s one of the big questions we’re going to answer. Also make note of their brutal schedule in December.

Quarterbacks

Christian Ponder – Future earnings look bright in Minnesota and that’s because Ponder is slowly growing into the starting role. Fantasy owners are looking at him as a legitimate QB2 in 2QB leagues, and in standard leagues he’s getting the benefit of the doubt when the matchup has been in his favor. The NFC North looks more wide open than what most had thought and that’s going to be great experience for Ponder. How is he going to mature, persevere and keep his team in the race? How many bets will Leslie Frazier double down on Ponder not Peterson, to deliver a win? Will Frazier allow him to pass in the fourth quarter?

These are things that Ponder owners will want to monitor weekly. Last season was turbulent with the expected rookie learning curve, but there were flashes of a winner and a rhythm passer, which tends to mean there are going to be ups and downs.

Ponder is off to a superb start to his second year though. He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes; he picked apart the 49ers defense, has not thrown an interception and has his team sitting at 3-1. His numbers have gradually declined but his schedule is favorable in October and the first half of November. The last six weeks of the season is where we’ll see what Ponder is made of, facing the top-ranked Texans, and both the Bears and Packers twice. So if you’re looking to trade Ponder at his highest value to a desperate owner needing QB help, do it before November.

For dynasty investors, Ponder has the start of a good offense: a workhorse running back that can create play-action pass opportunities, a reliable tight end, and an explosive x-factor receiver/running back/kick returner. Ponder’s offensive line is solid, but could be better; the team is gradually being tailored around him. A few reliable and consistent receivers plus a second tight end are all he needs to have potent offense. Imagine if he had a few of the young receivers Aaron Rogers or Eli Manning had?
Long-Term Analysis: Bullish

Joe Webb and McLeod Bethel-Thompson – The Vikings are happy they have Ponder and have put all of their chips in. Webb would be the guy to target should Ponder go down, but there’s no fear in any of these guys playing a down in 2012.
Long-Term Analysis: Bearish

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson – A return to glory this season was an overly optimistic prediction this season but after one month he’s holding up well. He’s not galloping for 60-yard scores or leading the league in rushing–yet–but he’s averaging 20 carries and just over 80 yards per game. What’s troubling is his lack of touchdowns the last three games–maybe scoring twice in the season opener re-established expectations a bit too high. Part of that could be the by-product of not having more weapons besides Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph.

However, until he is a consistent weekly threat to score, Peterson will be viewed as a RB2 at best. What is encouraging is that Peterson is being used as a receiver more than he has in three seasons, so he could have some slight PPR value this season. They could have toyed with the idea of drafting Trent Richardson for the future and instead traded with Cleveland for extra picks and Matt Kalil instead, so that shows they are committed to this nucleus.
Long-Term Analysis: Hold

Toby Gerhart – It didn’t take long for the luster to rub off of Gerhart. Once Peterson was able to reaffirm himself as the starter in Week 1, Gerhart’s value tumbled. He’s only getting a few spot carries each game and in the unenviable situation that Peterson gets hurt again, Gerhart doesn’t look any better than than a flex back. 
Long-Term Analysis: Bearish

Matt Asiata, Jerome Felton – Neither of the Vikings’ two fullbacks have factored into the offense at all besides blocking and a random reception. In the event that Peterson and Gerhart are out, the Vikings would probably have to bring in someone from the outside.
Long-Term Analysis: Bearish

Wide Receivers

Percy Harvin – Suddenly, the skies aren’t so cloudy in Minnesota, they are clear and bright. Harvin is a triple threat who is on pace to break 100 receptions and 1,000 yards. The addition of Jerome Simpson will only help give him get less double coverage the rest of the season and while Harvin is still not a red zone target, we expect that to change by the season’s midpoint.
Long-Term Analysis: Bullish

Jerome Simpson – Helping out the receivers is the former Cincinnati Bengal and free agent pick up who made his Week 4 debut after serving a three-game suspension for violating the substance abuse policy. Simpson is not expected to elevate his grade as a flex receiver but he will be in the flow of each game and should impact the effectiveness of his teammates in a positive way. If he comes close to his 2011 numbers in 13 games, then it’s a successful fantasy season for both Simpson and owners who make or already made the waiver wire addition.
Long-Term Analysis: Slightly Bullish

Devon Aromashodu – Simpson does affect Aromashodu negatively, and stunts what little progress the five year wideout made in this offense. Aromashodu has been an afterthought for most of the season but it is less likely now that he makes a legitimate push for fantasy relevance this year.
Long-Term Analysis: Bearish

Jarius Wright, Michael Jenkins, Stephen Burton – Only nine-year veteran Michael Jenkins has any fantasy value in deep 12 or 14-team leagues with multiple flex positions. Wright and Burton are too green to make it on the field much outside of special teams. 
Long-Term Analysis: Extremely Bearish

Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph – At 6-6 and 260 pounds, Rudolph fits the new prototype for the tight end sector of the market. He’s fast become the primary red zone target for Ponder and the two of them could be a young QB to TE connection to watch in the future. If he can begin pushing the weekly yardage in the 50-70 yard range on a consistent basis, then Rudolph could be a sought after commodity.
Long-Term Analysis: Slightly Bullish

John Carlson and Rhett Ellison – The Vikings spent good money to get Carlson but might have been wiser to spend it on another receiver. He was a bad fit in Pete Carroll’s offense in Seattle and it appears 2012 could be a wash too unless the Vikings utilize more two and three tight end formations. Ellison is used primarily as a blocking tight end and has no shot at any profitable futures or dividends.
Long-Term Analysis: Extremely Bearish

Read more Long-Term Investing Articles:

Minnesota Vikings  (click to read)
Miami Dolphins  (click to read)
Washington Redskins  (click to read)