Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Ernie Estrella
- Edited by Marc Caviglia

Like a financial advisor, I will be looking at several teams and seeing what kind of long-term fantasy potential their players have. From their starters to their unknown bench players, I’ll let you know if I’m Bullish on a player, because I’m optimistic about him and think his stock will rise, or if I’m Bearish on those whose stock long term value will eventually fall. A Hold means that the future is being written today,no change in value today or tomorrow. There are a dozen or so more players that will be discovered over the course of the next 16 weeks. We’re hoping to uncover some of them for you, and if someone has already swooped in on these players, then Long Term Investing will encourage you to evaluate other teams in the same manner.

This week we’re talking about the Miami Dolphins. With rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill calling the shots; fantasy football owners have been shy towards Dolphin players. Chad Johnson was the biggest thing to happen, and then not happen in the off-season. All of it was caught onHBO’s Hard Knocks because it seems that Miami was the only franchise to want to have that spotlight put on them. After a Week 2 thumping of the   Oakland Raiders at home, savvy owners are beginning to comb the beaches at South Beach to find hidden talent.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill – the most positive thing going for Tannehill is that his offensive coordinator was also his head coach in Texas A&M, so the patience is there, the language is the same so all the rookie has to do is trust in his players and make plays. He doesn’t have the best armory though. Outside of Reggie Bush, Brian Hartline, Davone Bess and some young running backs, the ammo is a bit light. That’s a downfall of Tannehill or any Dolphin quarterback for that matter. I would try to upgrade from Tannehill in a 2QB league, but in a standard scoring league where you would need him once, maybe twice in a season because you have an elite QB as your starter, then he is not a bad investment. The playbook should open slowly as the season moves along and if Miami falls out of the playoff race, then expect to see Tannehill be given all the freedom. As a keeper, the possibilities are hopeful if Hartline can continue his progress and the Dolphins can keep Bush, they are probably 2-3 quality players away from making the AFC East interesting. But until then, we’re being cautiously optimistic.
Long-Term Analysis: Hold

Matt Moore and Pat Devlin – at the beginning of this season, it looked like David Garrard would take this job, away from Matt Moore, but once the 34-year old Garrard went down in the preseason with a knee injury, the Dolphins opted to go with the future, rather than keep trying their luck with Moore. Garrard was soon released and Moore has accepted his role as a backup. No longer a threat to usurp the starting role, Moore is an option only if Tannehill goes down with an injury and fantasy football owners are in a world of hurt for a starting QB.
Long-Term Analysis: Bearish

Running Backs

Reggie Bush – a gimmick in New Orleans, Bush has found a home to show that he can be an every-down back and that he not only can be a versatile runner who can pile on the stats, he can help this young team win. Fantasy is starving for running backs who can produce on a consistent basis and Bush’s value continues to rise in this ever-changing landscape. Originally thought of as a lower-end second tier back, there are many owners who would pay a large ransom for Bush’s services. Just know that Bush is a free agent next year and the team is developing Plan B if he tests the open market or gets franchised.
Long-Term Analysis: Bullish

Daniel Thomas, Lamar Miller, Jorvorskie Lane and Marcus Thigpen – Miami’s Plan B includes a variety of young tailbacks who we expect to see get a share of the carries. A concussion slowed down Thomas, who was already in coach Joe Philbin’s doghouse. The only thing Thomas has going for him is his ability to pass block, but for a 230 pound running back, the perception is that he runs with no conviction, no punch. Meanwhile Miller continues to make the most of his opportunities. He scored a touchdown against the Raiders in Week 2, helping to pile on Oakland. Until he can get his blocking up to par with Thomas, Miller can’t be a three-down back. But if we’re just looking at both Thomas and Miller as being potential full-time running backs, Miller should be a starter eventually in this league. Lane is a fullback who has been surprisingly involved in the two aspects of the offense, but there’s no fantasy value there. Marcus Thigpen is an interesting player for those in return yardage leagues, but he’s yet to show much value outside of his special teams work.
Long-Term Analysis: Hold

Wide Receivers

Brian Hartline – After Week 2, Hartline has become the second most popular name in Miami besides Bush. From out of nowhere, Hartline has taken advantage while the team is bereft of talent, becoming Tannehill’s most targeted receiver with 20 through Week 2. Something has sparked some real effort in Hartline, perhaps he senses this is his chance to either establish himself with a promising rookie quarterback or that he’ll be a free agent next season. Teams will begin to plan their defenses with Hartline in mind and if he remains productive, then he’ll be something more than just a hot waiver wire pickup. He’ll have his chance to prove that in Week 3.
Long-Term Analysis: Bullish

Davone Bess – Owners turned their heads to Bess–a possession receiver–once the team let go of constant distraction, Chad Johnson. Bess is 27 and a five-year veteran, and currently in the middle of his second contract with the Dolphins. Some took Bess as a late-round flier because Tannehill needed a safety valve and he’s providing that service but he’s never had the speed to separate from defenders, or the size to go up and play basketball in the red zone. Bess is a professional workman-like receiver, but is hardly a gamebreaker; he’s also an infrequent visitor to the pylons, scoring just 11 times in his career and if he hasn’t developed a nose for the endzone by now he probably won’t in the future. However, with the attention Hartline is beginning to get, Bess could put a string of games together to give Tannehill a reliable receiver to help move the chains. Still looking okay in a PPR league, Bess is not a glamorous receiver or even an extremely productive one, but he has a particular skill set that more experienced quarterbacks would exploit. 
Long-Term Analysis: Hold

Legedu Naanee – Falling further out of favor is the free agent pickup Naanee who had pedestrian numbers in San Diego, and had a slightly better spotlight cast on him in Carolina on a one-year contract trying to attract buyers. It’s bad news when the only team calling is Miami for yet another one-year contract, this time for $700,000. The former Boise State product can barely get snaps now, or Shula forbid, a measly target. If the Dolphins are not investing long-term in Bess, why should you?
Long-Term Analysis: Bearish

Marlon Moore, Anthony Armstrong and Rishard Mathews – Also in the scrap heaps of Miami are three more receivers. Moore spent the entire 2011 season on injured reserve, Matthews barely made the team as a seventh-round pick, and Armstrong is a Washington Redskins cast off that hasn’t been able to get off the inactive list. The Dolphins would take Ted Ginn Jr. back at this point.
Long-Term Analysis: Extremely Bearish

Tight Ends

Anthony Fasano – The crafty veteran can still help out a young quarterback, but it’s unlikely he’ll ever help out a fantasy football team. He’s still getting targets, eight through the first two weeks, which is good for fourth on the team. But Fasano’s not athletic enough to get down field or separate from the speedy linebackers to get those big plays on a regular basis. He’s built from the last generation of tight ends and is barely given a thought as a TE2. If Mike Sherman’s offense gets rolling though and Tannehill continues to make strides, Fasano has the potential to still be worth something in a PPR league. He doesn’t warrant a roster spot but it might not be bad to put him on the watch list and see what the market is like for him after the season’s midpoint.
Long-Term Analysis: Hold

Charles Clay – Clay was drafted back in 2011 and isn’t completely forgotten in this offense, but then again, who is? Given the dire situation at wideout, Clay could come in handy and like Fasano owners or ones watching him, Clay is someone that deserves a distant eye as well.
Long-Term Analysis: Hold

Read more Long-Term Investing Articles:

Minnesota Vikings  (click to read)
Miami Dolphins  (click to read)
Washington Redskins  (click to read)