Sep 7, 2010
Hello and welcome to the seventh installment of an eight installment series breaking down all 32 NFL teams from the Individual Defensive Player (IDP) perspective. This series will be taking a look at each team’s respective defensive schemes and how those schemes affect the value of certain defensive players. We will also be discussing some varying levels of sleepers as well as some players to avoid, or better known as busts. This week’s installment will be covering the AFC South.
HOUSTON TEXANS
DEFENSIVE SCHEME: Texans defensive coordinator Frank Bush utilizes a mixture of 4-3 under and zone coverage looks that focus on the simplification of defensive tasks and roles. Their scheme is anything but an aggressive one, but has become more aggressive with the emergence of Brian Cushing at strong side linebacker. This general lack of aggressiveness holds DeMeco Ryans value back a bit since he will struggle to make many big plays. He’s as solid a tackler as they come, however.
EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing (likely Zac Diles while Cushing is suspended)
STONE COLD LOCK: DeMeco Ryans has been a top 15 linebacker in each of his first four seasons in the league and this year is going to be no different. With Brian Cushing suspended for the first four games of the season, Ryans should be able to rack up top 10 linebacker numbers. Look for 100+ solo tackles out of Ryans this season.
ON THE RISE: Connor Barwin is a player the NFL coaches love. He’s got great size (6’4, 260 pounds), speed, and work ethic. As a converted college tight end, he’s still quite raw at the defensive end position. But he’s got little competition in front of him (Antonio Smith) and showed flashes of being a standout defensive end last season. He’s still probably one season away from being fantasy viable in shallow leagues, but he’s a great dynasty pick and worth a late-round flier in deep leagues.
BUST POTENTIAL: Brian Cushing has bust written all over him. First, you have the performance enhancing suspension which makes you question his 2009 performance a bit. Secondly, Cushing’s tackle numbers were last than spectacular last season. He had five games in which he registered 3 or less solos. Much of his fantasy production was predicated on big plays which are hard to reproduce year after year. Lastly, he plays on the strong side and has to shed extra blockers which limits his tackle opportunities. Let other owners spend a high draft pick on Cushing.
COMATOSE SLEEPER: Kareem Jackson was the Texans 1st round pick of this year’s draft and will slide into the starting cornerback spot Week 1 opposite Glover Quin. The “rookie corner” rule should be in full effect in this situation as I expect Jackson to get tested quite a bit especially early on in the season. He should offer owners decent value in CB-required IDP leagues.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
DEFENSIVE SCHEME: The Colts run one of the purest forms of the Tampa-2 defense in the league. Tony Dungy brought the defense from Tampa Bay and it is still in place under defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. This type of system typically only rushes 4 players and is therefore heavily dependent on the defensive line to generate pressure on the quarterback. Fortunately, the Colts have two great speed rushing ends in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The weak side linebacker position is perhaps the most valuable fantasy position in this scheme and has made fantasy studs out of players like Cato June, Mike Peterson, and David Thornton. With this being said, WLB Clint Session should be a safe bet for a top 25 finish again this season.
EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: Gary Brackett, Clint Session
STONE COLD LOCK: One word comes to mind when I think of Gary Brackett: trustworthy. He’s had five solid fantasy seasons in a row and always seems to be overlooked come draft day. He’s a 4-3 middle linebacker and the leader of the defense. He reminds me of London Fletcher-Baker in some ways. Brackett is 30 heading into this season, but he just signed a long-term contract and should be fantasy viable for the next few seasons.
ON THE RISE: Bob Sander(claus) has burned IDP fantasy owners perhaps more than any other defensive player over the last few seasons. Consequently, his ADP has dropped way below his actual, true fantasy value. He seems healthier than he has been in years and is one of the most explosive fantasy safeties in the NFL. Right now, he can be drafted as your DB3 and he has DB1 upside. He’s worth the risk.
BUST POTENTIAL: There are three things in life that are inevitable: death, taxes, and someone taking Dwight Freeney too high in fantasy drafts. Freeney will never be a top 10 fantasy defensive lineman (except in leagues that reward very heavily for sacks) since he just doesn’t record enough tackles. Even though Freeney had 13.5 sacks last season, he only had 24 total tackles. Yes, 24. He could have a 16 or 17 sack season and not finish as a top 10 DL with those type of tackle numbers.
COMATOSE SLEEPER: Pat Angerer had 36 tackles this preseason which was 12 more than any other player. He’s currently blocked by Gary Brackett, Phillip Wheeler, and Clint Session at linebacker. However, all it takes is one injury and Angerer will be playing full-time. He’s a great dynasty pick and could even pay dividends this year for fantasy owners.
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
DEFENSIVE SCHEME: The Jaguars experimented with some hybrid 3-4, 4-3 schemes last season, but have come full circle back to a basic 4-3 scheme. This is good news for Aaron Kampman and Derrick Harvey owners and gives Kirk Morrison some added value as well.
EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: Kirk Morrison, Daryl Smith (Justin Durant may still be in mix)
STONE COLD LOCK: Kirk “Return of the Mack” Morrison was an IDP staple for years with the Oakland Raiders and even though he loses top 10 status with his transfer to Jacksonville, he’s still a top 25 linebacker and will put up solid LB2 numbers.
ON THE RISE: This is the year that Derrick Harvey finally starts to pay dividends for the Jaguars and fantasy owners. He finally has a top-notch defensive end playing opposite of him in Aaron Kampman and is freed up to take on offensive right tackles one-on-one. He’s always been strong against the run and will put up solid tackle numbers. If he increases his tackle total to six or seven, he will be a top 25 defensive lineman.
BUST POTENTIAL: Linebacker Daryl Smith was a solid LB3 and waiver wire play last season for fantasy owners. It would be a mistake to expect that same type of production out of him this season, however. With the arrival of Kirk Morrison at middle linebacker, Justin Durant has been moved to the weak side and Smith has been moved to the less than desirable fantasy position of strong side linebacker. The position change plus the increased competition for tackles within the front seven make Smith a player to avoid in fantasy drafts.
COMATOSE SLEEPER: Jags strong safety Anthony Smith is a player who, although quite talented, has been an overall letdown because of confidence issues and mental errors. He’s now firmly entrenched as the starter in Jacksonville and if he can put it all together, he has definite upside as an IDP.
TENNESSEE TITANS
DEFENSIVE SCHEME: The Titans run a very physical, 4-3 base defense under former NFL player and defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil. The Titans blitz on occasion but usually rely on their front four to generate most of the pressure. Expect Stephen Tulloch to put up gaudy tackle numbers in this scheme this season.
EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: Stephen Tulloch, Will Witherspoon
STONE COLD LOCK: Typically linebackers that come off the field during nickel packages aren’t top 20 linebackers. However, Titans linebacker Stephen Tulloch broke the mold last year when he posted 94 solo tackles and 27 assists even though he was only a two-down linebacker. With Keith Bulluck gone to New York, Tulloch becomes the leader of the Tennessee defense and a three-down linebacker. This means he should see an increase of about 20% of the total game snaps and his tackle opportunity and production should rise. He will more than likely wind up being a top 10-15 linebacker this season.
ON THE RISE: Most of the attention this season is going to be on 1st round draft pick Derrick Morgan when it comes to Tennessee’s defensive line. However, William Hayes is the player to watch for fantasy purposes. He has two more years of experience than Morgan and showed signs of breaking out last year. He had a ton of QB pressures and hurries that are likely to be turned into sacks this season.
BUST POTENTIAL: One of the golden rules of IDP fantasy football is DON’T DRAFT A ROOKIE DEFENSIVE LINEMAN. The chances of drafting a fantasy starter (DL1 or DL2) is only 2%. Even for linemen who were drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft, the fantasy starter rate is only 8%. With this in mind, stay away from Derrick Morgan. He’s been battling injuries in preseason and hasn’t played that well. He’s going to need at least a year to get acclimated to the NFL environment and game speed.
COMATOSE SLEEPER: Chris Hope is a player that always seems to go unnoticed in fantasy circles and I can’t understand why. He’s been a top 30 fantasy DB in four of the last five seasons and offers a good mix of tackle and big-play ability. Grab him as your DB4 and enjoy low DB2 value.
More IDP Sleepers & Busts (click to read)
NFC WEST | NFC SOUTH | NFC NORTH | NFC EAST
AFC EAST | AFC NORTH | AFC SOUTH | AFC WEST
If you have any further IDP questions feel free to shoot Ryan an email at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or drop a line in our IDP Forums.
As always, for more great IDP information, visit the IDP Guru at www.idpguru.com.
Thanks for reading and make sure to be on the lookout for the eight and final installment of this series covering the AFC West which will be releasing on Saturday, September 11, 2010.
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