IDP Sleepers & Busts: AFC East

Aug 30, 2010

Hello and welcome to the fifth installment of an eight installment series breaking down all 32 NFL teams from the Individual Defensive Player (IDP) perspective. This series will be taking a look at each team’s respective defensive schemes and how those schemes affect the value of certain defensive players. We will also be discussing some varying levels of sleepers as well as some players to avoid, or better known as busts. This week’s installment will be covering the AFC East.

BUFFALO BILLS

DEFENSIVE SCHEME: The Bills have moved away from Perry Fewell’s 4-3, cover-2 laden defensive scheme and in favor of the trendy 3-4 defensive scheme. Buffalo has the personnel to make an effective switch as ends Chris Kelsay and Aaron Maybin are good candidates for outside linebacker roles. Paul Posluszny is big enough to play in this type of scheme and Andra Davis has plenty of experience in the 3-4.

EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: Paul Posluszny, Chris Kelsay

STONE COLD LOCK: Paul Posluszny is my 3rd ranked linebacker this season. You may think this is too high for a guy who’s only averaged 110 total tackles over the last two seasons, but there are valid reasons for this ranking. First, Posluszny missed four games last season and would have been a top 5 linebacker if not for the injury. Secondly, the Bills defense is going to be on the field perhaps more than any other defense in the league and Posluszny’s tackle opportunities should increase dramatically. As long as he can stay healthy, top 5 numbers for “Pos” are definitely within reach.

ON THE RISE: Safety George Wilson was a godsend to many IDP fantasy owners last season. Wilson didn’t start until the 3rd game of the regular season and still finished with an impressive 103 total tackles and 4 interceptions along with 2 sacks. Unfortunately, Wilson is stuck behind Donte Whitner and Jairus Byrd on the depth chart. The good news is that Byrd is going to be sidelined with an injury and may miss the first couple weeks of the season and Whitner is injury-prone himself. Wilson has a good chance to re-establish himself as a starting safety in Buffalo or at the very minimum rotate enough to be fantasy viable in deeper leagues. He’s a top 20 DB if he starts the whole season.

BUST POTENTIAL: Bryan Scott helped many IDP fantasy owners (including myself) reach the playoffs last season. But with the current plethora of talent at the safety position in Buffalo, Scott is unlikely to see much playing time. He’s currently not worth a roster spot in any leagues.

COMATOSE SLEEPER: Andra Davis finds himself with yet another NFL team this season. The NFL journeyman is a good fit for the Bills 3-4 defensive scheme and will start at SILB next to Paul Posluszny. Davis has been a consistent, solid tackler throughout his career and with the Bills likely to be on defense quite a bit this season, he should serve as a good bye-week filler and matchup-type IDP.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

DEFENSIVE SCHEME: The arrival of Mike Nolan in Miami means the Dolphins will be playing a more aggressive style of the 3-4 than they have played in previous years. They will also be moving away from the previously used 2-gap system imposed by Bill Parcells and going to the more commonly used 1-gap system.

EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: Karlos Dansby, Cameron Wake, Channing Crowder, Koa Misi

STONE COLD LOCK: Big numbers should be expected out of Karlos Dansby this season. He is playing on a team and in a scheme that makes him a top 10 option this year at the linebacker position. Dansby will be stationed at the WILB position in defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s 3-4 scheme. This is the same role that made fantasy football stars out of Patrick Willis, DJ Williams, and Donnie Edwards. Dansby has little competition for tackles within Miami’s front seven and should have a career year in 2010.

ON THE RISE: Second year player Cameron Wake is on the verge of having a breakout season. Wake showed flashes of dominance at times last season and now that he’s going to be receiving the majority of snaps at ROLB, he could very well have a double digit sack season. As with a lot of outside-rush linebackers in a 3-4 scheme, he won’t produce many tackles though. With this being said, keep a close eye on Wake mainly in big-play leagues.

BUST POTENTIAL: Randy Starks emergence as one of the top 3-4 defensive ends last season was one of IDP fantasy football’s best stories. But his move to nose tackle is a detrimental one for his fantasy value. Historically speaking, the nose tackle position is a fantasy blackhole and even though Starks production could be above average for the position, it’s highly unlikely that he will come close to reaching the numbers that he posted last season.

COMATOSE SLEEPER: In cornerback required leagues, Vontae Davis is a nice late-round selection. He came up with 4 interceptions in his rookie season and has been steadily improving his ball skills in the off-season. A leaky front seven should add in Davis’ tackle production.

Need help organizing your fantasy draft? We’ve got you covered….

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

DEFENSIVE SCHEME: Bill Belicheck runs the Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4 defensive system. This system is more similar to Bill Parcell’s 2-gap 3-4 than Mike Nolan’s 1-gap 3-4 and consequently the defensive lineman for New England are not usually fantasy worthy. On the other hand, it increases the value of the linebackers (Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes).

EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: Jerod Mayo, Tully Banta-Cain

STONE COLD LOCK: Jerod Mayo is by far the most solid fantasy option on New England’s defense. He posted a 128 total tackles in his rookie season and was on pace for similar numbers last season if he wouldn’t have gotten hurt. There is some concern that Mayo’s numbers may dip a bit since he was seen playing the strong side at times this preseason with rookie Brandon Spikes playing the weak side. Mayo posting a team high 10 tackles in Thursday’s preseason game against the Rams should have squashed those concerns, however.

ON THE RISE: Patrick Chung could very well turn out to be the IDP sleeper of the season. He’s finally getting his shot at the starting strong safety position and is going to play a role very similar to that of former elite IDP Rodney Harrison. The Patriots will be bringing him up close to the line-of-scrimmage as an in-the-box safety and will use him to blitz the quarterback as well. Chung has DB1 upside and can usually be drafted as your DB3. Get him on your roster.

BUST POTENTIAL: Free safety Brandon Meriweather has had back-to-back top 20 fantasy seasons at his position. His reliance on big-play production sets him up for a potential bust year, however. Equally disconcerting is that the Patriots finally have a viable player in Patrick Chung at strong safety to take production away from Meriweather.

COMATOSE SLEEPER: Florida linebacker Brandon Spikes’ draft value suffered greatly after a dismal 40-time at the combine, but it looks like the Patriots got great value with Spikes when they drafted him at the end of the 2nd round. He’s played very will in preseason and is going to start at the SILB position next to Jerod Mayo. He was also seen playing some WILB at times during the preseason which increases his fantasy value as well. At this point, Spikes is only a two-down linebacker, however.

NEW YORK JETS

DEFENSIVE SCHEME: The Jets use a heavy dose of 46 looks along with variations of the 3-4 and 4-3 base defenses (multiple fronts). The aggressive play-calling of Rex Ryan has turned certain Jets IDPs (e.g. Davis Harris) into top fantasy producers. Expect more of the same this season.

EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: Bart Scott, David Harris, Calvin Pace

STONE COLD LOCK: Similar to Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo, David Harris is the clear IDP to own on this defense. He flourished in Rex Ryan’s aggressive defensive scheme. The solo tackles numbers were a bit underwhelming for a top 10 linebacker (82); however, he more than made up for that with a whopping 45 assists and 5.5 sacks along with two interceptions. The big plays aren’t likely an aberration and Harris should continue top 10 production this season.

ON THE RISE: Rookie Kyle Wilson could see ample playing time sooner than most thought with Darrelle Revis currently holding out. If he starts, you can be assured that he will be tested early and often which means an above average amount of tackle and interception opportunities. As an added bonus in return yardage leagues, Wilson may assume some return duties as well.

BUST POTENTIAL: Cornerback Darelle Revis is perhaps the best cornerback in the NFL (along with Nnamdi Asomugha) and actually had a decent fantasy year last season due to his six interceptions and his ridiculous amount of pass deflections (31). However, with each passing day, it looks more and more likely that Revis will holdout the entire season and even if he does play, teams are going to throw away from him even more than they did last season. He’s certainly not worth selecting at his current positional draft spot of 9.

COMATOSE SLEEPER: Strong safety Jim Leonard should see an uptake in his fantasy production this season with Kerry Rhodes departing to Arizona. Leonard blitzed quite a bit last season as witnessed by his 2.5 sacks and should improve upon his 76 total tackles from last year. He has also been returning kicks and punts during the preseason. He’s not a guy that I would draft, but he’s worth keeping an eye on.

More IDP Sleepers & Busts (click to read)

NFC WEST | NFC SOUTH | NFC NORTH | NFC EAST

AFC EAST | AFC NORTH | AFC SOUTH | AFC WEST

If you have any further IDP questions feel free to shoot Ryan an email at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or drop a line in our IDP Forums.

As always, for more great IDP information, visit the IDP Guru at www.idpguru.com.

Thanks for reading and make sure to be on the lookout for the sixth installment of this series covering the AFC South which will be releasing on Friday, September 3, 2010.

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IDP Sleepers & Busts: AFC East