Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

As we roll into the final week of the NFL regular season, the NFC playoff teams are locked, five 8-7 teams are fighting for the wildcard spots in the AFC and many fantasy football champions have been determined. For those fantasy owners still playing, get ready for a big week from some unheralded players.

In Week 16, the Indianapolis Colts sent their starters to the bench for the second half, and thus, opportunities were aplenty for the second-stringers. The oft-injured Donald Brown totaled 16 touches, and despite amassing just 34 yards, scored a touchdown. Austin Collie – not exactly a “second-stringer” – had 94 yards on six receptions (7 targets). In Week 17, against the Jairus Byrd-less Buffalo Bills, Collie and Brown are both excellent fantasy plays. Buffalo remains worst in the league against the run, and without the outstanding rookie safety Byrd, their secondary is a lot weaker.

Speaking of weak secondaries, Tom Brady picked apart the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday to the tune of four touchdowns. Brady tossed the ball Wes Welker’s way 13 times, and in true Welker fashion, the shifty receiver caught each and every one of them for 138 yards. Randy Moss got just five looks, but he made them count: four catches, three scores. With the Patriots’ playoff spot locked, there’s a chance Bill Belichick will take a page from the Indianapolis Colts’ playbook in Week 17 and give his starters a second half rest against the Houston Texans. However, a win by Houston could secure their first playoff birth in franchise history, and could mean another meeting with the Patriots in the first round of the playoffs. So what does this mean for fantasy football owners? Be wary of the Patriots, but play your Texans! In fact, with their teams competing for those final two playoff spots, play all your New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos, too. The best fantasy match-ups will be in Denver and Oakland, as the Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs – making Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Marshall, Kyle Orton and Correll Buckhalter all solid starts – and the Ravens face the Raiders – Ray Rice; need I say more? Okay, I will. Willis McGahee, despite just two touches in Week 16, could be a factor.

Two running backs who were factors in Week 16 but probably weren’t in your starting lineup were the Green Bay Packers’ Brandon Jackson and the San Diego Chargers’ Darren Sproles. Both backs scored three times – Jackson on eight touches, Sproles on just seven. The Chargers have already clinched a first round bye, and the Packers are in as a wildcard. The backups should get some significant time here. Sproles is a key cog in the return game, so he could find the pine. The real play here could be Mike Tolbert, who had 12 touches for 71 yards in Week 16. Jackson will probably share time with Ahman Green, but could carry the majority of the workload in place of Ryan Grant.

One final note to point out: Let’s not overlook Roddy White’s 14 target, eight reception, 139-yard, two touchdown effort for the Atlanta Falcons or Jabar Gaffney’s eight target, seven catch, 69-yard, two touchdown performance for the Denver Broncos in Week 16.

Take a look at Week 16’s targets and touches grids, and keep in mind who has something to play for in Week 17. (*=2 games, **=1 game)

TARGETS REPORT

	Player	Wk 16 Targets	Wk 16 Recs	Wk 16 Yards	Wk 16 TD	3-Wk Targets	3-Wk Recs	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Roddy White	14	8	139	2	30	14	213	2
2	Brandon Marshall	13	8	39	0	50	36	312	3
-	Derrick Mason	13	7	77	0	29	18	258	2
-	Zach Miller	13	9	110	0	**13	9	110	0
-	Wes Welker	13	13	138	0	38	27	283	0
6	Dwayne Bowe	12	9	61	0	*22	13	117	0
-	Santonio Holmes	12	5	86	1	30	14	256	1
-	Calvin Johnson	12	7	96	0	30	14	168	0
9	Santana Moss	11	8	92	0	25	15	205	0
-	Chaz Schilens	11	4	64	0	22	11	121	1
11	Miles Austin	10	9	92	0	31	22	302	2
-	Davone Bess	10	5	45	0	23	12	125	0
-	Anquan Boldin	10	8	116	0	28	19	228	1
-	Chris Chambers	10	3	34	0	24	12	198	1
-	Larry Fitzgerald	10	5	48	1	21	11	106	2
-	DeSean Jackson	10	4	33	1	27	16	351	3
-	Jeremy Maclin	10	6	92	0	*10	6	92	0
18	Devin Aromashodu	9	7	150	1	31	17	236	2
-	Deion Branch	9	5	53	0	26	14	114	0
-	Marques Colston	9	8	77	0	24	19	217	1
-	Lex Hilliard	9	9	74	1	14	14	117	1
-	Terrell Owens	9	4	39	0	16	8	74	1
-	Steve Smith (NYG)	9	7	70	1	26	19	184	2
24	Danny Amendola	8	6	38	0	18	13	64	1
-	Kevin Boss	8	5	49	0	21	15	176	1
-	Antonio Bryant	8	5	52	0	19	10	109	0
-	Deon Butler	8	1	15	0	20	7	79	0
-	Jabar Gaffney	8	7	69	2	15	11	125	2
-	Percy Harvin	8	4	40	0	*11	5	50	0
-	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	8	4	51	0	25	15	176	0
-	Michael Jenkins	8	2	22	0	16	6	124	1
-	Mario Manningham	8	6	87	0	16	11	147	1
-	Hakeem Nicks	8	6	44	0	18	12	220	1
-	Sidney Rice	8	6	56	1	21	14	164	2
-	Kellen Winslow	8	4	76	0	25	14	195	0
36	Reggie Bush	7	6	37	0	16	14	100	2
-	Rock Cartwright	7	5	14	0	10	7	73	0
-	Dallas Clark	7	4	57	0	27	16	195	5
-	Desmond Clark	7	5	39	1	8	6	47	1
-	Earl Bennett	7	3	35	1	15	6	91	1
-	Steve Breaston	7	4	67	0	18	8	117	0
-	Austin Collie	7	6	94	0	17	12	160	2
-	Jerricho Cotchery	7	4	45	0	19	11	120	0
-	Lee Evans	7	5	43	0	17	9	89	1
-	Ted Ginn Jr.	7	5	82	0	11	8	132	0
-	Devery Henderson	7	5	35	0	20	10	88	0
-	Vincent Jackson	7	5	70	0	25	17	298	2
-	Greg Jennings	7	4	111	0	23	12	285	2
-	Andre Johnson	7	5	71	1	32	25	460	3
-	Julius Jones	7	6	51	0	14	9	55	0
-	Josh Morgan	7	4	21	0	20	14	96	1
-	Maurice Morris	7	4	29	0	15	11	73	0
-	Chad Ochocinco	7	4	31	0	20	10	137	3
-	Reggie Wayne	7	3	33	0	21	12	208	1
-	Ricky Williams	7	5	26	0	15	10	42	0
-	Jason Witten	7	6	117	0	22	15	210	0

TOUCHES REPORT

	Player	Wk 16 Touches	Wk 16 Rush-Rec	Wk 16 Yards	Wk 16 TD	3-Wk Touches	3-Wk Rush-Rec	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Jerome Harrison	39	39-0	148	1	84	80-4	465	4
2	Frank Gore	32	28-4	152	1	78	69-9	455	2
3	Cedric Benson	31	29-2	140	0	65	60-5	312	0
-	Ray Rice	31	30-1	155	0	69	59-10	478	1
5	Jonathan Stewart	30	28-2	222	1	64	60-4	374	3
6	Jamaal Charles	27	24-3	124	0	81	69-12	475	2
-	Adrian Peterson	27	24-3	137	2	71	62-9	382	5
-	Cadillac Williams	27	24-3	148	1	51	47-4	250	2
9	Chris Johnson	24	21-3	179	1	86	78-8	524	4
10	Thomas Jones	23	23-0	105	1	67	66-1	254	3
11	Matt Forte	22	21-1	67	0	60	53-7	204	0
-	Maurice Morris	22	18-4	66	0	49	41-8	240	1
13	Marion Barber	21	17-4	93	1	55	48-7	235	3
-	Maurice Jones-Drew	21	18-3	98	0	73	63-10	321	3
15	Julius Jones	20	14-6	90	0	45	36-9	198	0
16	Arian Foster	19	19-0	97	1	39	34-5	205	1
17	Rashard Mendenhall	18	17-1	40	1	52	44-8	221	2
-	LaDainian Tomlinson	18	16-2	63	2	60	53-7	239	3
-	Beanie Wells	18	17-1	93	1	52	49-3	319	3
20	Donald Brown	16	15-1	34	1	**16	15-1	34	1
-	Ryan Grant	16	16-0	97	2	46	44-2	278	5
-	Shonn Greene	16	16-0	95	0	30	30-0	166	0
-	Jason Snelling	16	15-1	74	0	49	41-8	240	1
24	Justin Forsett	15	14-1	74	0	39	32-7	216	0
-	Fred Jackson	15	13-2	53	0	57	48-9	287	0
-	Ricky Williams	15	10-5	61	0	67	57-10	265	2
27	Felix Jones	14	10-4	85	0	40	34-6	206	0
-	Jerious Norwood	14	13-1	61	0	34	31-3	163	0
29	Ahmad Bradshaw	13	11-2	56	0	43	34-9	247	3
-	Sammy Morris	13	12-1	98	1	24	22-2	148	1
31	Kenneth Darby	12	11-1	46	0	23	15-8	127	0
-	Tim Hightower	12	10-2	35	1	28	18-10	89	2
-	Lex Hilliard	12	3-9	86	2	22	8-14	139	2
-	Ryan Moats	12	8-4	62	0	36	31-5	154	1
-	Knowshon Moreno	12	9-3	35	1	60	51-9	192	1
-	Mike Tolbert	12	11-1	71	0	16	11-5	92	0
37	Michael Bush	11	10-1	59	0	30	28-2	203	1
-	Darren McFadden	11	7-4	78	0	34	27-7	257	0
-	Fred Taylor	11	11-0	35	0	**11	11-0	35	0
-	Brian Westbrook	11	9-2	37	0	**11	9-2	37	0
41	Brad Hoover	10	9-1	49	1	13	11-2	53	2
-	Chris Ogbonnaya	10	9-1	64	0	**10	9-1	64	0
-	Chester Taylor	10	8-2	55	0	20	15-5	125	0
44	Lynell Hamilton	9	7-2	31	0	13	11-2	44	0
45	Reggie Bush	8	2-6	53	0	23	9-14	178	2
-	Rock Cartwright	8	3-5	20	0	12	5-7	86	0
-	Quinton Ganther	8	7-1	29	0	37	31-6	162	3
-	Ahman Green	8	8-0	29	1	13	13-0	40	1
-	Brandon Jackson	8	5-3	39	3	14	8-6	68	3
50	Mike Bell	7	7-0	20	0	*11	11-0	28	1
-	Correll Buckhalter	7	5-2	54	0	*11	9-2	73	0
-	Le’Ron McClain	7	6-1	19	0	16	15-1	57	1
-	LeSean McCoy	7	6-1	66	0	33	25-8	176	1
-	Darren Sproles	7	5-2	61	3	21	15-6	119	3
-	Derrick Ward	7	7-0	32	0	33	30-3	122	1
-	Leonard Weaver	7	7-0	20	0	36	33-3	131	1

ROOKIE ON THE RISE

Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Brown, the Colts’ first round pick out of Connecticut, has had an extremely disappointing rookie season. Plagued with injuries, he has managed just 74 carries on the year, and his 3.9 ypc average and three touchdowns are nothing to write home about. That said, Brown got the majority of the second half workload for the Colts in Week 16, finishing with 16 touches, 34 yards and a score. With the starters likely not getting off the bench in Week 17, Brown figures to carry the load against a horrific Buffalo Bills defense.

Week 17 Projection: 21 touches, 98 yards, 1 TD

MR. OVERLOOKED: SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

Mike Tolbert, RB, San Diego Chargers

The hefty Tolbert (5’9”, 243 lbs) was handed 11 carries on Sunday, and reeled off 60 yards. He also added one catch for 11 yards. With the Chargers likely to rest their starters in Week 17, including Darren Sproles, Tolbert could be handed the rock frequently against a Washington Redskins team that has completely given up. In fact, Tolbert could get the ball so much on Sunday that he could put up RB1 numbers. He’s a great flex play, and a solid RB2.

Week 17 Projection: 24 touches, 108 yards, 1 TD

Week 17 Rankings:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  | DEF    (click to read)

Week 17 Start & Sit:  START ‘EM  |  SIT ‘EM    (click to read)

Week 17 Waiver Wire Advice:  PICK THEM UP  |  CUT THEM LOOSE    (click to read)

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