Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

As the season winds down, the fantasy football playoffs heat up, and the battle for points (in non-head-to-head leagues) rages on to the bitter end.  For those who took chances on some unheralded sleepers in Week 15 (ala the Cleveland Browns’ Chris Jennings or the Houston Texans’ Arian Foster, as advised in this column (sorry)), you may be on the outside looking in.  Who would have expected Jennings, coming off a solid Week 14 against the Pittsburgh Steelers’ top-rated run defense, to take a backseat to the heat-seeking missile that was Jerome Harrison?  If you happened to be one of the prophetic owners who gave Harrison a starting nod, it’s time to send the sports almanac back to the future.  Harrison’s 36 Week 15 touches led the league, and his 286 rushing yards were 3rd best all time!  298 total yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns ain’t bad.  Don’t expect it again in Week 16, despite a good match-up against the Oakland Raiders.

Chris Johnson and Ray Rice owners were disappointed by their top RB’s efforts on Sunday, as neither hit paydirt.  Johnson’s 31 touches amounted to 159 yards, but he lost a fumble along the way.  Rice, too, couldn’t find the end zone, and barely crested 100 total yards (104) on 21 touches.  Neither back broke the 100-yard rushing barrier. 

Three runners who did trample past 100 yards were Jamaal Charles, Jonathan Stewart and Beanie Wells.  As mentioned last week, Charles is playing himself into RB1 status.  He amassed 170 yards from scrimmage and a score in Week 15, and has accumulated 410 yards and three touchdowns over the past three weeks.  Stewart, getting the bulk of the work thanks to an injury to DeAngelo Williams, ran for 109 yards and score and caught two passes for 14 yards and a score.  Wells, seemingly having seized the starting role away from Tim Hightower, exploded for his first career 100-yard game, totaling 123 yards on 18 touches while adding a touchdown.  Of the three mentioned backs, Wells has the best Week 16 match-up against the St. Louis Rams. Charles faces a tough Cincinnati defense, while Stewart will do battle with the resurgent New York Giants.

Speaking of the Giants, if you hadn’t heard, Steve Smith broke their single-season reception record last week.  After his five Week 15 catches (on just 7 targets), he now has 90 receptions on the season.  It was the other Steve Smith, however, who lit it up in Week 15 as Carolina’s Smith led the league in targets (14) and receptions (9), and electrified the Panthers’ offense with 157 yards and a touchdown.  A shell of his former self for much of the season, Smith has gained 318 yards and scored twice over the past three weeks (on 14 catches, 25 targets).  He could give the Giants’ fits in Week 16, assuming Matt Moore has more time to throw the ball than Jason Campbell did on Monday night.

Throwing the ball.  That is what the Indianapolis Colts did better than the New Orleans Saints this week, and it is why they now stand as the only undefeated team in football.  Miles Austin (13 targets, 7 catches, 139 yards, TD) and the Cowboys let the game get exciting, but their early lead was too much for Drew Brees and company to overcome.  The Colts also played a tight one, but Peyton Manning managed his team to victory, and Reggie Wayne finally showed some life.  Despite just 7 targets and 5 receptions, Wayne got back into the groove with 132 yards and a score.  The question on all fantasy football owners’ minds is: when will the Colts start to rest their players?  It’s hard to tell, exactly, but it’s best to be prepared with the likes of Austin Collie and Mike Hart when they do.  If you play through to Week 17, the Colts match up against Buffalo and the league’s worst run defense, and Hart could be a good flex play.

One quick side note before you delve into the Targets and Touches numbers: Brandon Marshall came back to Earth from his record-setting Week 14 with a measly 7 catches for 73 yards and a score (on 9 targets). 

Here are the Targets & Touches grids for Week 15.  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

TARGETS REPORT

	Player	Wk 15 Targets	Wk 15 Recs	Wk 15 Yards	Wk 15 TD	3-Wk Targets	3-Wk Recs	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Steve Smith (Car)	14	9	157	1	25	14	318	2
2	Miles Austin	13	7	139	1	33	23	314	3
-	Hines Ward	13	7	126	0	28	17	224	1
4	Anquan Boldin	11	6	72	1	27	18	210	3
-	Dallas Clark	11	7	95	2	26	15	163	5
-	Greg Jennings	11	5	118	1	26	14	251	1
-	Wes Welker	11	4	40	0	38	24	312	0
8	Devin Aromashodu	10	2	10	0	24	10	86	1
-	Dwayne Bowe	10	4	56	0	**10	4	56	0
-	Deion Branch	10	4	28	0	22	10	68	1
-	Greg Camarillo	10	5	46	0	27	16	217	0
-	Jermichael Finley	10	9	74	1	25	21	223	3
-	Tony Gonzalez	10	3	32	1	30	17	154	1
-	DeSean Jackson	10	6	140	1	*17	12	318	2
-	Andre Johnson	10	9	196	0	42	27	488	3
-	Derrick Mason	10	6	87	1	22	13	194	2
-	Heath Miller	10	7	118	0	20	13	204	0
-	David Thomas	10	8	77	0	17	13	117	0
-	Roddy White	10	4	33	0	36	15	178	1
20	Fred Davis	9	5	65	1	22	13	168	4
-	Donald Driver	9	3	76	0	18	8	118	1
-	Malcom Floyd	9	4	63	0	20	10	133	0
-	John Paul Foschi	9	7	82	0	14	10	117	0
-	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	9	7	73	0	24	16	162	0
-	Brandon Marshall	9	7	73	1	47	35	367	4
-	Mike Sims-Walker	9	6	64	1	23	8	82	1
27	Davone Bess	8	4	58	0	27	17	197	1
-	Andre Caldwell	8	5	22	0	16	9	47	0
-	John Carlson	8	7	86	1	12	11	119	2
-	Marques Colston	8	5	86	0	22	13	186	2
-	Vernon Davis	8	3	43	0	24	12	188	2
-	Antonio Gates	8	4	33	1	24	16	244	2
-	Devery Henderson	8	2	22	0	21	11	114	0
-	Torry Holt	8	3	38	0	17	7	133	0
-	Bryant Johnson	8	2	11	0	14	4	24	0
-	Josh Morgan	8	7	61	1	21	16	131	2
-	Josh Reed	8	4	64	0	11	4	63	0
-	Bo Scaife	8	5	40	0	19	14	139	1
-	Kellen Winslow	8	6	93	0	23	14	188	0
-	Jason Witten	8	5	44	0	31	23	249	0
41	Jerricho Cotchery	7	6	49	0	18	11	143	0
-	Michael Crabtree	7	4	26	0	29	15	153	1
-	Braylon Edwards	7	5	105	1	18	11	187	2
-	Johnnie Lee Higgins	7	1	12	0	18	8	110	0
-	Santonio Holmes	7	3	77	0	27	17	319	1
-	Vincent Jackson	7	5	108	2	22	14	282	2
-	James Jones	7	2	36	1	15	6	80	1
-	Dustin Keller	7	3	33	0	11	5	41	0
-	Marcedes Lewis	7	4	53	0	13	7	130	0
-	Knowshon Moreno	7	3	39	0	11	6	52	0
-	Randy Moss	7	5	70	1	16	8	152	1
-	Louis Murphy	7	2	21	0	17	7	157	2
-	Chaz Schilens	7	5	37	1	17	10	102	2
-	Steve Smith (NYG)	7	5	40	1	30	18	224	1
-	Reggie Wayne	7	5	132	1	21	13	223	1

 

TOUCHES REPORT

	Player	Wk 15 Touches	Wk 15 Rush-Rec	Wk 15 Yards	Wk 15 TD	3-Wk Touches	3-Wk Rush-Rec	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Jerome Harrison	36	34-2	298	3	62	51-11	414	5
2	Maurice Jones-Drew	32	27-5	140	2	77	69-8	305	3
3	Chris Johnson	31	29-2	159	0	95	84-11	486	3
4	Jamaal Charles	27	25-2	170	1	73	63-10	410	3
-	Jonathan Stewart	27	25-2	123	2	61	58-3	278	3
6	Steven Jackson	24	20-4	123	0	77	67-10	297	0
7	Laurence Maroney	23	23-0	81	1	61	58-3	241	1
8	Matt Forte	22	20-2	69	0	63	56-7	233	1
-	Knowshon Moreno	22	19-3	81	0	69	63-6	243	2
-	Maurice Morris	22	17-5	161	1	28	20-8	192	1
-	Ricky Williams	22	19-3	89	1	72	65-7	285	2
12	Ray Rice	21	16-5	104	0	55	43-12	394	1
13	LaDainian Tomlinson	20	16-4	117	0	63	57-6	261	2
-	Derrick Ward	20	19-1	73	1	34	28-6	139	1
15	Joseph Addai	19	16-3	73	0	64	53-11	285	2
-	Michael Bush	19	18-1	144	1	20	19-1	145	1
-	Frank Gore	19	16-3	126	0	60	50-10	365	1
-	Fred Jackson	19	15-4	112	0	58	48-10	289	0
-	Thomas Jones	19	19-0	52	0	67	66-1	258	2
-	Jason Snelling	19	16-3	64	0	45	36-9	218	1
-	Leonard Weaver	19	17-2	70	0	36	31-5	211	2
22	Marion Barber	18	17-1	73	2	52	46-6	185	2
-	Beanie Wells	18	17-1	123	1	47	45-2	254	2
24	Cedric Benson	17	15-2	72	0	72	67-5	297	0
-	Brandon Jacobs	17	16-1	54	0	47	44-3	236	3
-	Rashard Mendenhall	17	11-6	111	1	54	47-7	284	2
27	Felix Jones	15	14-1	68	0	35	30-5	140	0
-	Adrian Peterson	15	12-3	108	1	63	51-12	310	3
29	Julius Jones	14	12-2	65	0	50	42-8	172	0
30	Ryan Moats	13	13-0	46	0	39	35-4	157	1
-	Cadillac Williams	13	12-1	88	1	43	40-3	208	1
32	Ahmad Bradshaw	12	9-3	90	2	37	30-7	238	3
-	Quinton Ganther	12	10-2	40	1	37	32-5	179	3
-	Tim Hightower	12	6-6	38	1	23	14-9	112	1
-	LeSean McCoy	12	9-3	56	1	35	25-10	136	1
-	Darren McFadden	12	12-0	74	0	32	29-3	204	0
37	Justin Forsett	11	9-2	69	0	32	23-9	176	1
-	Jerious Norwood	11	9-2	69	0	33	29-4	144	0
-	Pierre Thomas	11	6-5	70	0	44	25-19	252	0
40	Ryan Grant	8	8-0	37	1	48	46-2	222	3
-	Shonn Greene	8	8-0	30	0	25	25-0	130	0
-	Marshawn Lynch	8	8-0	25	0	30	26-4	183	1
43	Lex Hilliard	7	3-4	43	0	16	10-6	73	0
-	Chris Jennings	7	7-0	18	0	33	32-1	121	1
-	Willis McGahee	7	4-3	22	0	24	20-4	96	3
-	DeAngelo Williams	7	6-1	16	0	*22	19-3	113	0
47	Kahlil Bell	6	6-0	30	0	21	21-0	74	0
-	Rashad Jennings	6	5-1	28	0	12	8-4	58	0
-	Marcus Mason	6	4-2	50	0	17	13-4	101	0
-	Willie Parker	6	6-0	22	0	12	12-0	49	0
-	Darren Sproles	6	3-3	33	0	25	17-8	141	1

 

ROOKIE ON THE RISE

Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Week 15 was a quiet week for rookies (who haven’t been mentioned in this segment before), thus, due to his first career 100-yard game and a great Week 16 match-up, we’ll once again spotlight Beanie Wells, the first-round runner out of Ohio State.  Over the past three weeks, Wells has more than doubled backfield-mate Tim Hightower’s 23 touches (with 47), and his 254 yards and two touchdowns have staked his claim to the RB1 spot in Arizona.  In Week 16, Wells faces the St. Louis Rams, who have given up the second most rushing scores in 2009 (19), and allow 140-plus yards per game to opposing runners.  Wells is a must-start RB2 for Week 16.

Week 16 Projection: 17 touches, 114 yards, 1 TD

Remainder of the Season Projection: 32 touches, 192 yards, 1 TD

MR. OVERLOOKED: SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

Mike Bell, RB, New Orleans Saints

Looking at the ownership numbers, I wanted to roll with Jerome Harrison after his outstanding, unbelievable, out-of-the-blue Week 15 performance.  However, since his ownership skyrocketed by nearly thirty percent on most major platforms, it seemed apparent that anyone still setting their line-ups for Week 16 had already scoffed him up.  Thus, I turned my attention to Bell, a moderately owned piece of the New Orleans Saints running back committee.  Though Bell may seem a risky choice, consider this: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whom the Saints face in Week 16, surrender nearly 160 yards per game on the ground, and have given up 15 rushing scores in 2009.  The last time the Saints faced Tampa, Bell had 13 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns.  Consider him a decent flex option, if you are out of other options.

Week 16 Projection: 12 touches, 50 yards, 1 TD

Week 16 Rankings:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  | DEF    (click to read)

Week 16 Start & Sit:  START ‘EM  |  SIT ‘EM    (click to read)

Week 16 Waiver Wire Advice:  PICK THEM UP  |  CUT THEM LOOSE    (click to read)

————————

Don’t forget to head over to our Fantasy Football Message Board and sign-up for a FREE FORUM account. By doing so you will be able to talk fantasy football all season long.