Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up.  Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

It’s that time of year again, the final week before the fantasy football playoffs (in most leagues). More than ever, it’s crucial to examine the trends and match-ups if you want to keep your season rolling. So, without further adieu, let’s get right into it.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

Week 12 flipped the Targets trends on their head. The likes of Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Hines Ward, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and DeSean Jackson – to name a few – did not get enough looks to crack the top 50. Taking their place were some relatively unheralded receivers. The St. Louis Rams’ Danny Amendola (11 targets, 7 receptions, 55 yards) and Donnie Avery (11 targets, 4 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD) were both in the top 5, as were Tennessee Titans’ rookie Kenny Britt (11 targets, 7 receptions, 128 yards, 1 TD) and New York Giants’ second-year man Mario Manningham (11 targets, 5 receptions, 48 yards). The New England Patriots’ Sam Aiken (10 targets, 7 receptions, 90 yards) also cracked the top 10. Moving forward, don’t expect the trend to continue for these out-of-the-woodwork players, as over the past three weeks only Avery ranks in the top 25 in targets (23rd), though it’s worth mentioning Manningham’s 21 targets (over the past three weeks) have come in just two games played.

Examining the numbers more closely, you’ll see some disconcerting trends for players many fantasy football teams count on week-to-week. Coming off a huge Week 11 (5 catches, 126 yards, 1 TD), Greg Jennings got just 6 looks in Week 12, and had 4 catches for a mere 54 yards. Over the past three weeks, Jennings has been targeted just 20 times (an average of 6.7 targets per game) – not great for a “number 1” receiver. In his 126-yard effort in week 11, he got only 7 looks. Take away his 64-yard TD grab, and he had 4 catches for 62 yards. Jennings has big play ability, but don’t be surprised by a 4-5 catch, 50-60 yard effort in Week 13 against the 12th ranked Baltimore Ravens’ pass defense.

Another, even more disturbing trend comes out of San Diego as Vincent Jackson, a stud WR1 for most of the 2009 season, has all but disappeared. Jackson has accumulated a solid stat-line through 12 Weeks (49 receptions, 815 yards, 7 TD), but in Week 12, he got just 5 looks, and pulled down just two balls for 27 yards. Over his past three games, Jackson has been targeted only 14 times (57th among wide receivers) and has but 7 catches for 93 yards. One could argue he’s faced tough defenses over that span (Denver and Philadelphia), but Week 12’s effort – if you can call it that – came against the Kansas City Chiefs and their 30th ranked pass defense. Week 13’s opponent is the defensively challenged Cleveland Browns (24th versus the pass), but counting on Jackson for a big game could be a risky move, even though the match-up dictates success. If you have other, decent options with good match-ups, consider using them in Jackson’s place.

The Touches trends haven’t been nearly as disturbing of late. The usual suspects (Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice) lead the way over the last three weeks, and in Week 12, they were joined by one surprise guest as Larry Johnson reemerged from the depths of irrelevance to finish with 24 touches and 105 yards in his second week with the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite Johnson’s workload, Bernard Scott also saw a lot of action (18 touches, 87 yards). Both will see their touches diminish greatly upon the return of Cedric Benson.

In Denver, Correll Buckhalter (20) received one more touch than Knowshon Moreno (19), but Moreno nearly doubled Buckhalter’s yardage output (107-56) and scored a rushing TD. Barring a setback from the wrist injury suffered on Thanksgiving night against the New York Giants, Moreno is a great play against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. If he is out, Buckhalter could be a solid sleeper.

Of note:

Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant stand to benefit if DeSean Jackson (concussion) is out in Week 13.

LaDainian Tomlinson and Laurence Maroney lead all NFL running backs in touchdowns over the past three weeks with 5.

Despite just 7 targets in Week 12, St. Louis’ Brandon Gibson is 6th in the NFL in targets over the past three weeks with 33.

Now, on to the Week 12 “Targets and Touches” grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

 
TARGETS REPORT

	Player	Wk 12 Targets	Wk 12 Recs	Wk 12 Yards	Wk 12 TD	3-Wk Targets	3-Wk Recs	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Roddy White	13	5	57	1	36	16	200	1
2	Tony Gonzalez	12	9	83	0	37	23	232	1
-	Calvin Johnson	12	2	10	1	36	17	255	2
-	Derrick Mason	12	7	62	1	32	19	282	1
5	Danny Amendola	11	7	55	0	17	11	116	0
-	Miles Austin	11	7	145	1	27	15	212	1
-	Donnie Avery	11	4	48	1	24	12	180	3
-	Kenny Britt	11	7	128	1	20	13	225	3
-	Mario Manningham	11	5	48	0	*21	11	174	0
-	Steve Smith (NYG)	11	7	71	0	*19	11	150	0
10	Sam Aiken	10	7	90	0	*10	7	90	0
-	Dallas Clark	10	9	63	1	18	14	131	2
-	Mark Clayton	10	7	129	0	14	8	139	0
-	Donald Driver	10	7	142	1	23	16	232	2
-	Frank Gore	10	7	14	1	20	14	44	2
-	Santonio Holmes	10	6	74	1	34	20	248	1
-	Sidney Rice	10	6	89	0	26	19	379	2
-	Bo Scaife	10	5	68	0	23	11	122	0
19	Bernard Berrian	9	6	74	0	19	11	107	1
-	Anquan Boldin	9	5	53	0	28	21	261	1
-	Brent Celek	9	4	33	0	25	14	115	1
-	Laveranues Coles	9	2	24	0	21	9	152	0
-	Fred Davis	9	4	43	1	18	10	117	1
-	Vernon Davis	9	6	69	1	26	15	193	2
-	Andre Johnson	9	5	67	0	*20	9	145	1
-	Brandon Marshall	9	6	86	0	28	14	246	2
-	Santana Moss	9	4	28	1	20	11	74	1
-	Visanthe Shiancoe	9	5	51	1	23	16	172	2
-	Mike Sims-Walker	9	4	46	0	25	15	186	2
-	Nate Washington	9	3	68	0	15	6	115	1
-	Wes Welker	9	6	32	0	37	30	318	0
32	Chris Chambers	8	7	70	1	19	14	249	1
-	Michael Crabtree	8	4	54	0	21	12	179	1
-	Percy Harvin	8	6	101	1	17	14	233	2
-	Michael Jenkins	8	7	80	0	26	17	171	0
-	Mohamed Massaquoi	8	1	12	0	23	7	157	1
-	Josh Morgan	8	6	43	0	16	10	72	0
-	Greg Olsen	8	7	45	0	30	20	162	0
-	Steve Slaton	8	7	49	0	*16	12	91	1
-	Chansi Stuckey	8	4	44	0	*14	9	120	1
-	Kellen Winslow	8	7	81	0	32	19	212	0
-	Jason Witten	8	5	107	0	23	15	197	0
43	Casey Fitzsimmons	7	5	38	0	7	5	38	0
-	Pierre Garcon	7	5	63	1	26	14	221	2
-	Antonio Gates	7	7	118	2	19	17	237	2
-	Brandon Gibson	7	3	18	0	33	15	172	0
-	Brian Hartline	7	3	31	1	13	6	95	1
-	Torry Holt	7	4	50	0	20	9	105	0
-	Jeremy Maclin	7	5	63	0	24	17	203	1
-	Louis Murphy	7	2	22	0	15	3	51	1
-	Dante Rosario	7	4	62	0	17	9	113	0
-	Chaz Schilens	7	2	32	0	15	7	100	0
-	Kevin Smith	7	4	46	0	18	11	160	1
-	Steve Smith (Car)	7	2	2	0	26	13	123	3
-	Sammie Stroughter	7	3	19	0	12	5	32	0
-	Chester Taylor	7	6	51	1	10	9	70	1
-	Kevin Walter	7	7	73	0	*12	11	119	0

TOUCHES REPORT

	Player	Wk 12 Touches	Wk 12 Rush-Rec	Wk 12 Yards	Wk 12 TD	3-Wk Touches	3-Wk Rush-Rec	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Steven Jackson	28	23-5	116	1	89	73-16	408	3
-	Thomas Jones	28	25-3	86	1	70	67-3	266	2
3	Adrian Peterson	27	25-2	103	1	75	67-8	344	3
-	Ricky Williams	27	27-0	115	1	73	69-4	360	4
5	Rashard Mendenhall	26	24-2	117	0	65	58-7	274	1
6	Larry Johnson	24	22-2	105	0	*26	24-2	110	0
-	Ray Rice	24	19-5	155	0	74	59-15	394	1
8	Frank Gore	23	16-7	47	1	62	48-14	240	3
-	Ryan Grant	23	20-3	103	0	67	60-7	335	1
10	Kevin Smith	22	18-4	89	0	53	42-11	303	1
-	Justin Forsett	22	22-0	130	2	61	48-13	368	4
12	Correll Buckhalter	21	20-1	56	0	33	29-4	148	0
-	Chris Johnson	21	18-3	186	1	85	73-12	569	3
-	LeSean McCoy	21	17-4	101	0	47	40-7	223	1
-	Knowshon Moreno	21	19-2	107	1	52	47-5	297	1
16	Fred Jackson	20	15-5	116	2	44	32-12	269	3
-	Maurice Jones-Drew	20	15-5	110	0	75	64-11	339	2
-	DeAngelo Williams	20	16-4	50	0	54	48-6	303	0
19	Joseph Addai	18	15-3	82	0	50	44-6	231	3
-	Rock Cartwright	18	15-3	64	0	49	37-12	254	0
-	Laurence Maroney	18	15-3	87	2	55	55-5	210	5
-	Bernard Scott	18	18-0	87	0	56	52-4	292	1 (return)
23	Jamaal Charles	17	14-3	147	1	58	49-9	330	4 (1 return)
-	Steve Slaton	17	10-7	106	0	*27	15-12	169	1
25	Marion Barber	16	14-2	102	0	45	39-6	246	0
26	Chris Brown	14	11-3	76	1	*28	22-6	129	1
-	Tim Hightower	14	11-3	78	1	45	35-10	261	1
-	Brandon Jacobs	14	11-3	57	0	*28	23-5	109	1
-	Darren Sproles	14	9-5	83	0	30	20-10	161	0
-	Pierre Thomas	14	11-3	87	1	40	33-7	232	1
-	LaDainian Tomlinson	14	13-1	44	2	58	57-1	213	5
-	Derrick Ward	14	13-1	31	0	34	30-4	105	0
33	Mike Bell	13	13-0	50	0	35	34-1	160	2
-	Justin Fargas	13	12-1	67	0	33	30-3	157	1
35	Matt Forte	12	8-4	61	0	58	42-16	276	0
-	Michael Turner	12	12-0	33	0	*21	21-0	144	0
37	Jamal Lewis	11	11-0	40	0	47	45-2	169	0
-	Cadillac Williams	11	10-1	38	1	37	35-2	126	2
39	Shonn Greene	10	10-0	36	0	20	20-0	61	0
-	Darren McFadden	10	6-4	66	0	23	16-7	112	0
-	Chester Taylor	10	4-6	84	1	31	22-9	192	1
42	Felix Jones	9	7-2	69	1	23	20-3	131	1
-	Jonathan Stewart	9	9-0	35	0	32	32-0	160	2
-	Beanie Wells	9	8-1	41	0	43	38-5	243	3
45	Jerious Norwood	8	6-2	50	1	**8	6-2	50	1
46	Donald Brown	7	5-2	38	0	16	13-3	70	0
-	Lex Hilliard	7	5-2	37	0	13	9-4	68	0
-	Leonard Weaver	7	6-1	48	0	14	11-3	71	0
49	Quinton Ganther	6	5-1	28	0	13	11-2	56	0
-	Brandon Jackson	6	6-0	14	0	20	11-9	112	0
-	Willis McGahee	6	5-1	19	1	26	24-2	86	1
-	Mike Tolbert	6	4-2	36	0	16	11-5	120	2

ROOKIE ON THE RISE

Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans

Britt, the Titans’ first round pick out of Rutgers, has had some big games in his rookie campaign, but none bigger than his 7 catch, 128-yard, 1 touchdown effort in the team’s come-from-behind win against the Arizona Cardinals this past Sunday. There have been down moments – 5 catches for 80 yards in Weeks 5 through 10 – but the 21 year-old Britt is quickly growing into a capable receiver for Tennessee, and it seems he’s got the confidence of Vince Young, who targeted the rook 11 times in Week 12. The Titans have a tough match-up this week in Indianapolis against the undefeated Colts, but for their continued success, they will need the rookie to continue to play a big part.

Week 13 Projection: 8 targets, 4 catches, 58 yards

Remainder of the Season Projection: 43 targets, 22 catches, 314 yards, 2 TD

MR. OVERLOOKED: SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers

I’ve spotlighted Smith in this column before (Week 9), and he came through with 286 yards and 2 TD versus Tennessee. (We’ll ignore the 3 picks.) With the way Smith has been playing over the last couple weeks (43-74, 459 yards, 5 TD, 1 Int), and with a Week 13 match-up against the 25th ranked Seattle Seahawks’ pass defense, the stars are once again aligned for a solid performance from the resurgent former number one pick. If you are a Matt Ryan owner, or are sick of Jay Cutler and scared by the idea of starting Eli Manning, Smith is your guy.

Week 13 Projection: 22-36, 225 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int

Week 13 Rankings:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  | DEF    (click to read)

Week 13 Start & Sit:  START ‘EM  |  SIT ‘EM    (click to read)

Week 13 Waiver Wire Advice:  PICK THEM UP  |  CUT THEM LOOSE    (click to read)

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