2009 Fantasy Football Draft Sheet
2009 Fantasy Football Draft Sheet
Fleaflicker NFL Fantasy Football

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Nov 25, 2009

Fasulo’s Forecaster - Targets, Touches, Trends (Wk. 12)


“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up.  Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

Welcome to a special Turkey Day edition of the Forecaster, Bruno Boys enthusiasts.  Week 11 unfolded much like we expected, and Week 12 is sure to serve up a fantasy football feast, so get the gravy ready, and let’s have a look back at the week that was, and what we can expect on this Thanksgiving weekend.


TARGETS & TOUCHES


Terrell Owens has much to be thankful for this Thanksgiving.  In Week 11, Owens was targeted 14 times, and hauled in 9 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown.  The 197 yards are more than 1/3 of T.O’s yearly production to date (563 yards) and the TD was only his second of the year.  Is this a sign of things to come for the soon-to-be 36 year-old receiver?  Let’s not get carried away.  But his Sunday matchup with the 22nd ranked Miami Dolphins’ pass defense is worthy of 3 TURKEY LEGS (out of 5).

Tom Brady has a lot to be thankful for this year.  No, I’m not talking about his life outside football.  (That’s a given.)  I’m talking about his top two receivers, Randy Moss and Wes Welker, who are tied for the league lead in targets over the last three weeks (38), and have combined for 730 yards and 4 TD in that timeframe.  Though Moss may account for all 4 of those scores, Welker is rolling with an out-of-this-world 87% catch rate (33-38).  The New Orleans Saints have given up just 9 passing touchdowns on the year (against 20 interceptions), but the Monday night showdown should be a shootout.  Moss and Welker: 4 TURKEY LEGS.

It wasn’t supposed to be so easy in the Detroit Lions / Cleveland Browns game, as two poor offenses combined for 75 points and proved their defenses are even worse.  Many skill position players were saying thanks to their young quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford and Brady Quinn) after the game.  Calvin Johnson (11 targets) finished with 7 receptions, 161 yards and a TD, but hand and knee injuries could sideline him for the Thanksgiving Day quarrel with the Green Bay Packers.  Kevin Smith (16 touches) had a 100-yard receiving day (149 total yards), and added a receiving TD.  And Browns’ rookie Mohamed Massaquoi (12 targets, 5 catches) went for 115 yards and his first NFL touchdown.  How do their Turkey Week matchups look?: Johnson 3 TURKEY LEGS  (check injury status), Smith 2 TURKEY LEGS, Massaquoi (@ Cincinnati)

>3 TURKEY LEGS. 

Here are some other players who have thanks to give this holiday season:

Chris Johnson: For his freakish ability.

Chris Johnson Fantasy Football Owners: For drafting him, for his past three weeks of work (92 touches, 543 yards, 4 TD) and for him making every matchup a 5 TURKEY LEG matchup.

Michael Crabtree: For his first NFL touchdown in Week 11, and his Week 12 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars – 4 TURKEY LEGS.

Ricky Williams, Justin Forsett, Jason Snelling and Bernard Scott:  for the opportunity, however it may have arisen, to showcase their abilities.  In Week 11, Williams went off against the Carolina Panthers for 138 yards and 3 TD (24 touches).  Forsett (17 touches, 9 targets) couldn’t get running against the Minnesota Vikings, but did score on the ground and accumulate 80 receiving yards.  Snelling (28 touches) had a meager yard per carry average (3.0), but ended up with 89 total yards and 2 TD against the New York Giants.  Scott (24 touches) amassed 151 yards from scrimmage against the Oakland Raiders.  Their week 12 matchups (against 4 of the 5 worst run defenses in football): Williams (@ Buffalo) 5 TURKEY LEGS, Forsett (@ St. Louis) 5 TURKEY LEGS, Snelling (vs. Tampa Bay) 5 TURKEY LEGS, Scott (vs. Cleveland) 1 TURKEY LEG if Cedric Benson plays,4 TURKEY LEGS if he doesn’t.


Here’s a look at the Week 11 “Targets and Touches” grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

 
TARGETS REPORT

  Player Wk 11 Targets Wk 11 Recs Wk 11 Yards Wk 11 TD 3-Wk Targets 3-Wk Recs 3-Wk Yards 3-Wk TD
1 Brandon Gibson 17 5 61 0 *26 12 154 0
- Wes Welker 17 15 192 0 38 33 370 0
3 Derrick Mason 16 9 142 0 33 15 251 0
4 Steve Smith (Car) 15 7 87 1 27 15 185 3
5 Tony Gonzalez 14 8 82 1 31 19 190 2
- Terrell Owens 14 9 197 1 *21 12 282 1
- Hines Ward 14 10 128 1 33 21 196 3
8 Kellen Winslow 13 5 29 0 29 16 188 1
9 Vernon Davis 12 6 108 1 28 19 226 1
- Larry Fitzgerald 12 8 87 1 35 24 283 4
- Mohamed Massaquoi 12 5 115 1 *15 6 145 1
- Greg Olsen 12 6 42 0 29 18 188 3
- Roddy White 12 4 45 0 28 14 170 0
14 Andre Johnson 11 4 78 1 *24 14 181 1
- Calvin Johnson 11 7 161 1 33 17 272 1
- Randy Moss 11 5 34 1 38 20 360 4
17 Jermichael Finley 10 7 54 0 **10 7 54 0
- Santonio Holmes 10 7 86 0 30 20 267 0
- DeSean Jackson 10 8 107 1 31 18 227 1
- Mario Manningham 10 6 126 0 *16 12 178 0
- Ray Rice 10 7 64 0 21 18 166 0
- Visanthe Shiancoe 10 8 78 1 *14 11 121 1
- Reggie Wayne 10 7 89 0 31 25 279 2
24 Anquan Boldin 9 8 103 1 *19 16 208 1
- Justin Forsett 9 8 80 0 25 18 151 0
- Jabar Gaffney 9 3 55 0 13 5 61 0
- Devin Hester 9 4 18 0 35 17 160 0
- Michael Jenkins 9 6 76 0 19 11 96 0
- Jeremy Maclin 9 6 64 0 26 15 184 1
- Brandon Marshall 9 3 26 0 34 19 272 2
- Mike Sims-Walker 9 8 91 1 24 17 287 3
32 Kevin Boss 8 5 76 2 *11 7 93 3
- Nate Burleson 8 6 100 0 22 13 175 0
- Rock Cartwright 8 7 73 0 11 10 81 0
- Jerricho Cotchery 8 3 84 1 *19 9 152 2
- Kevin Faulk 8 4 53 0 20 10 95 0
- Pierre Garcon 8 6 104 0 28 14 218 1
- Heath Miller 8 7 95 1 18 14 139 1
- Brandon Pettigrew 8 6 72 1 22 15 165 2
- Tom Santi 8 6 80 0 **8 6 80 0
- Steve Slaton 8 5 42 1 *11 8 54 1
- Steve Smith (NYG) 8 4 79 0 *19 12 136 1
43 Miles Austin 7 4 47 0 20 9 116 1
- Donnie Avery 7 4 65 0 *13 8 132 2
- Earl Bennett 7 5 57 0 23 15 177 0
- Marques Colston 7 5 74 0 15 8 136 0
- Donald Driver 7 5 40 0 22 13 161 1
- Torry Holt 7 3 31 0 22 9 92 0
- Brandon Jackson 7 6 65 0 12 10 89 0
- Greg Jennings 7 5 126 1 24 14 232 1
- Zach Miller 7 5 65 1 *9 6 74 1
- Santana Moss 7 5 38 0 19 12 93 0
- Hakeem Nicks 7 5 65 0 *12 8 104 0
- Sidney Rice 7 6 89 2 *16 13 290 2
- Dante Rosario 7 4 40 0 *10 5 51 0
- Bo Scaife 7 4 38 0 16 8 74 0
- Devin Thomas 7 3 33 0 13 5 70 0
- Jason Witten 7 5 43 0 23 17 133 0

 


TOUCHES REPORT

  Player Wk 11 Touches Wk 11 Rush-Rec Wk 11 Yards Wk 11 TD 3-Wk Touches 3-Wk Rush-Rec 3-Wk Yards 3-Wk TD
1 Chris Johnson 29 29-0 151 0 92 80-12 543 4
- Maurice Jones-Drew 29 25-4 84 1 87 78-9 363 3
3 Adrian Peterson 28 24-4 98 0 *48 42-6 241 2
- Jason Snelling 28 25-3 89 2 *49 43-6 182 3
5 Ray Rice 27 20-7 135 0 70 52-18 374 2
6 Steven Jackson 26 24-2 116 1 *61 50-11 292 2
7 Rashard Mendenhall 25 21-4 116 1 62 56-6 321 1
- Jamal Lewis 25 24-1 88 0 *36 34-2 129 0
9 Bernard Scott 24 21-3 151 0 38 34-4 205 1 (return)
- Ricky Williams 24 22-2 138 3 54 49-5 281 4
11 Ryan Grant 23 21-2 145 1 65 61-4 328 2
12 Laurence Maroney 22 22-0 77 2 57 55-2 205 4
13 Marion Barber 21 20-1 107 0 44 37-7 214 0
- Thomas Jones 21 21-0 103 0 *42 42-0 180 1
15 Joseph Addai 20 19-1 81 1 51 43-8 261 5
- LeSean McCoy 20 20-0 99 1 44 36-8 237 1
- LaDainian Tomlinson 20 20-0 73 1 58 56-2 199 3
- Rock Cartwright 20 13-7 140 0 39 29-10 205 0
19 Jamaal Charles 19 17-2 66 2 (1 return) 50 41-9 238 3 (1 return)
20 Matt Forte 18 14-4 54 0 57 39-18 322 0
21 Justin Forsett 17 9-8 89 1 45 27-18 297 2
22 Tim Hightower 16 14-2 125 0 47 39-8 271 0
- Beanie Wells 16 14-2 85 1 47 43-4 274 3
- Kevin Smith 16 12-4 149 1 46 37-9 290 1
25 Chris Jennings 15 10-5 74 0 *23 17-6 102 0
26 Brandon Jacobs 14 12-2 52 1 *26 23-3 120 1
- DeAngelo Williams 14 13-1 131 0 57 53-4 414 2
- Mike Bell 14 13-1 80 2 27 26-1 127 2
- Pierre Thomas 14 11-3 103 0 44 35-9 226 1
- Chris Brown 14 11-3 53 0 **14 11-3 53 0
31 Fred Jackson 13 9-4 55 0 *24 17-7 153 1
- Chester Taylor 13 11-2 85 0 *21 18-3 108 0
- Brian Leonard 13 13-0 36 0 26 20-6 98 0
34 Ahmad Bradshaw 12 12-0 34 0 *29 26-3 100 0
- Cadillac Williams 12 11-1 36 0 42 41-1 144 1
- Jonathan Stewart 12 12-0 43 0 37 36-1 163 2
37 Knowshon Moreno 11 10-1 86 0 36 33-3 193 0
- Felix Jones 11 10-1 56 0 18 17-1 72 0
39 Frank Gore 10 7-3 68 1 61 47-14 351 3
- Correll Buckhalter 10 7-3 81 0 23 18-5 120 0
- Darren Sproles 10 9-1 33 0 22 12-10 101 0
- Jacob Hester 10 7-3 46 0 11 7-4 49 0
- Steve Slaton 10 5-5 63 1 *19 11-8 92 2
- Brandon Jackson 10 4-6 81 0 16 6-10 107 0
- Derrick Ward 10 7-3 40 0 27 21-6 133 1
- Justin Fargas 10 8-2 49 0 *20 18-2 91 0
47 Darren McFadden 9 6-3 35 0 *13 10-4 46 0
- Lynell Hamilton 9 9-0 19 0 **9 9-0 19 0
49 Mike Tolbert 8 7-1 59 1 10 7-3 84 2
- Marshawn Lynch 8 8-0 18 0 *21 17-4 73 0

 

 


ROOKIE ON THE RISE


Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cleveland Browns

Massaquoi, a second round pick out of Georgia, became the Browns’ de facto number one receiver after their trade of Braylon Edwards to the New York Jets.  Moments of brilliance have been scattered throughout his up-and-down rookie campaign, but what can be expected of a skill player in an offense with a general ineptness and uncertainty at the quarterback position?  On the season, Massaquoi leads all rookie wide receivers in targets (64), and as spotlighted above in “Targets & Touches”, Week 11 was a taste of the ability he possesses: 12 targets, 5 catches, 115 yards, TD. Last time he matched up with the Cincinnati Bengals, his Week 12 opponent, he had 8 receptions for 148 yards.  Consider him a 3 TURKEY LEG play this week.

Week 12 Projection: 9 targets, 4 catches, 64 yards

Remainder of the Season Projection: 43 targets, 18 catches, 326 yards, 1 TD


MR. OVERLOOKED: SLEEPER OF THE WEEK


Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Even if Julius Jones is able to play in the Thanksgiving Week game at the St. Louis Rams, Forsett is sure to get enough touches to be a viable fantasy football flex option.  Despite managing just 9 yards on 8 carries in a tough Week 11 matchup with the Vikings, Forsett still scored 14 fantasy football points (80 yards receiving, 1 rushing TD).  Over the last three weeks, the Seahawks 5’8”, 194 lb tailback leads all NFL running backs in targets (25) and receptions (18), and has totaled 297 yards from scrimmage and 2 TD on 45 touches.  Against a Rams defense that allows 146 yards per game on the ground and has surrendered 14 rushing scores, Forsett is a 5 TURKEY LEG play.

Week 12 Projection: 18 touches, 102 yards, 1 TD


Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!


Week 12 Rankings:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  | DEF    (click to read)

Week 12 Start & Sit:  START ‘EM  |  SIT ‘EM    (click to read)

Week 12 Waiver Wire Advice:  PICK THEM UP  |  CUT THEM LOOSE    (click to read)


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