Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Written by: Jimbo Jones
Staff Contributor: Allie Fontana
Edited by: Allie Fontana

Welcome to the Conference Championship Round edition of the 2011-2012 Fantasy Football Roundtable, our weekly article offering fantasy insights and predictions. Bruno Boys writer Jimbo “Waiver Wire” Jones is joined each week by another member of the team to discuss burning questions and hot topics on the minds of fantasy football owners and share their predictions on the Conference Championship games, which players will deliver and which ones won’t, and projections for key fantasy-relevant players. Bruno Boys Allie Fontana mixes it up with Jimbo Jones this week.

Opening Round: Three Questions Heading into the Conference Championship Round

1.  Can the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers contain their respective opponents (Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants) and win back-to-back playoff games at home?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones— My Super Bowl prediction is a repeat of the Harbaugh Bowl. Baltimore vs. San Francisco. In the NFC Conference Championship game, I think the Giants are in a lot of trouble, and I’m not even considering this stomach ailment that Eli Manning is dealing with. Yes, New York is playing top-notch football right now, and they are postseason road warriors, however they beat a soft Green Bay defense last week. The Packers defense was flat out awful except for Desmond Bishop. While the 49ers gave up some long plays to New Orleans in the fourth quarter, the defense is a brick wall. Aldon Smith will wreak havoc on Manning throughout the game. In the AFC Championship, Ed Reed’s comments will motivate Joe Flacco to have one his best performances ever against a very soft New England secondary. The Ravens defense is probably the only unit in the league that could shut down Brady and the Patriots offense. The hometown crowd in New England will leave Gillette Stadium sad-faced while Niners fans will celebrate in the streets of San Francisco. 

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana— We saw two of the NFL’s most prolific offenses lose in the Divisional Round of the playoffs and turnovers heavily contributed to the undoing of both the Saints and the Packers last weekend.  Both Conference Championship games feature an offensive powerhouse against more conservative, defensive-minded team.  As much as I’ll be rooting for the San Francisco 49ers to make it to Super Bowl XLVI as the NFC Conference Champions, I think their dream season comes to an end on Sunday against a peaking-at-the-right-time New York Giants. The G-Men’s late-season momentum and postseason success on the road reminds me of the Green Bay Packers and their incredible run last year. While San Francisco has the edge when it comes to the ground game, run defense and special teams, quarterback Alex Smith and his receivers aren’t in the same league as Eli Manning and the talented trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. New York’s pass rush is far superior to the New Orleans Saints, and because the 49ers O-line doesn’t do a great job in pass protection, they should be able to get to Smith with little trouble.The Giants defense as a unit is playing more disciplined football than they did for most of the regular season. They’ll have a far better plan for covering the talented Vernon Davis than we saw from the Saints last week.  Both teams will look to establish the run; however the Niners rely on it more than the Giants. If they don’t get a big game out of Frank Gore, then I think they struggle to put points on the board. We’re in for a hard hitting, in the trenches type of game that could be decided by which quarterback makes the big play or plays at the right time. While Alex Smith had some huge plays against the Saints, Eli Manning has been making them all season and over the course of his career. Moreover, he’s been close to flawless in the postseason, throwing for 607 yards and six touchdowns. Advantage Giants.

As far as the AFC Championship game is concerned, I see a lot of similarities between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots. Like Eli Manning, Tom Brady is playing lights-out football and Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez represent huge matchup challenges for opposing defenses. You can’t cover them all and Brady will find whoever is open—whether it’s one of these guys, Deion Branch or someone else.  Heck, they could even find some success using BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the red zone or Danny Woodhead catching passes out of the backfield. The Patriots have so many offensive weapons and schemes that it’s hard game plan for them when you don’t know exactly what they’ll do any given week. In addition, the much-maligned Patriots defense is healthier now than they were for most of the season. While they do give up a lot of yards, they also have a knack for making big defensive plays when it counts and they’re good limiting opposing offenses in the red zone.

On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens were fortunate to come away with a win against the Houston Texans last week. The Ravens capitalized on the muffed punt by Jacoby Jones that set up a 1-yard touchdown pass, another 10-yard touchdown following a Lardarius Webb interception and a Billy Cundiff field goal—all in the first quarter. They could only muster three points through the game’s final 46 minutes. Baltimore’s offense revolves around dynamic dual-threat Ray Rice. Houston limited Rice to 80 combo yards and I expect New England to focus their efforts on containing him as well.  If they take out or neutralize Rice, then I can’t see the Ravens being able to move the ball consistently. Joe Flacco has taken a lot of heat this season for Baltimore’s sometimes underwhelming offense. Some of the criticism is justified and some of it isn’t. While Flacco’s pocket presence isn’t always the best and he sometimes makes bad decisions under pressure, his receivers have a hard time getting open, frequently run bad routes and suffer from the “dropsies” with some regularity. None of the current crop runs routes as well or provides Flacco with a reliable target the way that Derrick Mason or Todd Heap did. Cam Cameron’s pass offense is predictable and relatively easy to defend if you can take out the long ball.  When the Ravens beat the Patriots in the 2009 AFC Wild Card game, they did it with a punishing ground game and stifling defensive performance. Flacco completed 4-of-10 passes for 34 yards. That was then, this is now. It’ll be a challenge for Rice to carry the team on his back alone, the Ravens defense will have a harder time getting to Brady & Co. this time around, and Flacco won’t beat the Patriots with his arm. New England wins the AFC title in front of a home crowd in Foxborough.

2.  RB Ahmad Bradshaw (New York Giants) was injured and didn’t play when the Giants faced (and lost to) the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10. How much of a difference (if any) will Bradshaw’s presence make when the teams square off for the NFC Championship game?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Ahmad Bradshaw will make very little, if any, difference in the NFC Championship game. Bradshaw is a solid running back, capable of 100-yard performances when he’s completely healthy. Unfortunately he’s still dealing with a lingering foot injury. I think the New York Giants would probably be better off deeding the ball to the bigger Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw will get eaten alive buy the Niners defensive line.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana— The San Francisco 49ers have a formidable front seven, so I doubt that Ahmad Bradshaw will have much success on the ground. If the New York Giants hope to have their running backs make an impact on Sunday, then they’ll need to take a cue from the New Orleans Saints. Darren Sproles caught 14 balls for 116 yards and a touchdown.  New York could find success using Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs in a similar fashion.

3.  We expect QB Tom Brady (New England Patriots) to come out throwing on Sunday. Will QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) be able to keep up with Brady and find success against the soft secondary of the Patriots?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones— As stated in my response to the first question, I think Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco could potentially have the best performance of his career against the Patriots on Sunday. The New England defense is as bad as the team’s offense is good.  Ed Reed’s criticisms will motivate Flacco and he’ll come out firing. New England’s secondary is very soft and very beatable, even for a quarterback with natural subpar skills like Flacco.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Logic says that Joe Flacco will throw more to keep up with Tom Brady and the Patriots offensive juggernaut.  No doubt Bill Belichick saw how effective the Texans were at limiting Ray Rice last week and he’ll be a marked man for the Pats as well. If the Patriots put points on the board quickly and build a big lead, then Flacco and the Ravens will feel pressured to air it out. While this might sound counterintuitive, I think that would be a mistake. Why? The Ravens pass offense has become vanilla and predictable that even a defense that gives up a lot of yards like New England’s should be able to disrupt Flacco and keep his wideouts at bay. Baltimore would be better off grinding it out with Rice and Ricky Williams and wearing down New England’s defensive line over the course of the game. 

Who’ll Have the Better Fantasy Week?

RB Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) or RB Ahmad Bradshaw (New York Giants)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Frank Gore. I’d really like to say “neither” in this case, because I think that Kendall Hunter and Brandon Jacobs will be more productive for their respective teams. However between Frank Gore and Ahmad Bradshaw, I’ll roll the dice with Gore. He’s been used so sparingly over in recent games, that I feel Gore is the healthier of the two back. Moreover, the 49ers ground game and clock control are two major strengths. They need Gore to play a key role in the game more than the pass-first New York Giants need Bradshaw.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Frank Gore. The San Francisco 49ers will do what they can to ensure that Frank Gore has a productive game this weekend. The 49ers run the ball 55 percent of the time on first downs, which makes sense for a team that’s offense is built around the power run game. I don’t expect them to change course on Sunday. Gore will challenge the New York Giants D-line and I think he should put together a 100-plus combo yard game. On the other hand, while the Giants had success against the Green Bay Packers last week, they failed to get the running game going other than a short touchdown run by Brandon Jacobs. The Niners have the NFL’s best inside linebacker duo in Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman. It’s practically impossible for opposing offenses to get anything going on the ground. If the Giants involve Ahmad Bradshaw in the passing game as the Saints involved Darren Sproles, then he could have a productive day. 

WR Anquan Boldin (Baltimore Ravens) or WR Wes Welker (New England Patriots)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Wes Welker. Although I like the Baltimore Ravens to win this week, I won’t completely discount all of the New England Patriots weapons. Brady will no doubt face a consistent pass rush on Sunday. Expect a lot of short slant passes and quick over-the-middle passes to Welker throughout the game. I think Welker will catch around 10 passes and hit or come close to the century mark. Finding the end zone is a completely different story.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Anquan Boldin. I like both guys about the same—five to seven catches and between 80-90 yards. The difference is that I think Anquan Boldin is more likely to find the end zone on Sunday than Wes Welker. The Patriots defense saw how successful Houston was at eliminating the deep ball for Joe Flacco and the Ravens, and I expect their secondary to make sure that Torrey Smith doesn’t have a chance to get open. Boldin is the best route-runner and most reliable of any Baltimore receiver and I expect Flacco to look his way early and often. 

QB Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers) or QB Eli Manning (New York Giants)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Eli Manning. My Eli Manning pick is based on the offensive styles of the Niners versus the Giants. The pass attack is New York’s bread and butter. The Giants won’t be able to run against the 49ers, so Manning will have to throw all day long. Alex Smith was very good last week in what was the best game of his career. He will feel a lot more pressure on Sunday against a much better defense than he faced against the Saints. Jim Harbaugh would be wise to shorten Smith’s leash, run the ball a lot and let Smith manage the game rather than attempt to run up the stats.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Eli Manning.  Let’s give credit where credit is due. Eli Manning has been playing at an incredibly high level, throwing nine touchdowns to one interception in his last three games.  Despite the Giants less than stellar O-line, he’s also done a great job of avoiding sacks, reading blitzes and getting rid of the ball quickly. Manning faces a tougher challenge on Sunday against the Niners top-ranked defense.  The 49ers run defense is even more formidable than its pass defense, so Manning will rely on his talented corps of receivers to move the ball downfield and put points on the board. While he probably won’t put up the kind of numbers that he did in the Divisional Round (330 yards, three touchdowns) against the Saints, Manning should have a productive day based on sheer volume. Alex Smith will also have a much harder time staring down a Giants pass rush that could get to him whether they blitz or not. Smith’s laser-like throw to Vernon Davis in the end zone with nine seconds left to play last week was a thing of beauty; however I don’t see it happening again, even against a beatable Giants secondary. While I typically don’t like to use the term “game manager,” it’s not such a bad thing for Smith to don that hat one more time given what’s at stake.   

 

RB Ricky Williams (Baltimore Ravens) or RB Danny Woodhead (New England Patriots?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Danny Woodhead. The Baltimore run defense is almost as good as the San Francisco run defense, which means that BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ fantasy outlook isn’t too promising. Danny Woodhead isn’t primarily a “between-the-tackles” type of runner, and he’s more accustomed to screen passes and short, dump off passes. Woodhead should see some success when Brady is under pressure and has to get rid of the ball. I think Joe Flacco will air it out a great deal on Sunday, and when Baltimore runs the ball, it’ll be Ray Rice who gets the carries. What little that may be leftover for Ricky Williams doesn’t make him a very good fantasy play.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Danny Woodhead. Since Aaron Hernandez isn’t an option, I’ll go with Danny Woodhead despite the fact that the tight end led the Patriots in rushing yards last week against the Broncos. The Baltimore Ravens defense will have to spend so much time covering New England’s two tight ends, Wes Welker and just about anyone else that the Patriots line up at receiver. Enter Danny Woodhead playing the role of Darren Sproles for the game, catching balls out of the backfield and giving the Ravens fits.  Ricky Williams should get a few carries here and there; however Ray Rice is the key to Baltimore’s success. Woodhead has a better chance to be more involved in New England’s game day strategy than Williams has in Baltimore’s. 

New York Giants D/ST or Baltimore Ravens D/ST?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—New York Giants D/ST. Although I like the San Francisco 49ers to win this week, they’ll do it as they have all season long—with their defense. The San Francisco offense will not produce close to what they did against the Saints in the Divisional Round. They’ll have to run the ball and eat up the clock. Alex Smith will take a couple of sacks and feel pressure from the Giants pass rush. New York’s defense will rack up the fantasy points. The Ravens defense is very stout, however I wouldn’t bet on any defense going up against Tom Brady right now.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—New York Giants D/ST.  Much has been made of the Baltimore Ravens ability to get the better of Tom Brady. In five career games against the Ravens, Brady has a 55.9 percent completion rate, his lowest versus any NFL team. While I concede that Baltimore has a good defense, Brady is coming off a six-touchdown performance in New England’s blow out win over the Broncos last week. The Ravens defensive line failed to register a sack against T.J. Yates last week, and while the Patriots O-line isn’t particularly effective at run blocking, they are much better at pass protection. Baltimore will have a much harder time getting the better of Brady in Foxborough where the Patriots are 8-1 at home this season. Moreover New England allowed the third fewest fantasy points per game to opposing defenses during the regular season. Despite the San Francisco 49ers offense being even stingier to defenses than the Patriots and Alex Smith’s efficient and generally mistake-free play, I think the New York Giants D/ST will have the better fantasy week. The team’s pass rush is much improved and has racked up 17 sacks in the last four games. If the secondary can play the same disciplined coverage that they did against the Packers in the Divisional Round, then they should be successful containing a less challenging San Francisco pass offense. Covering Vernon Davis will no doubt be key. 

 

Over/Under Projections

QB Tom Brady (New England Patriots)—325 yards passing, three touchdowns.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Over. I would say that Tom Brady will toss three if not four touchdown passes at most and project him to pass for around 350 yards. Although the Baltimore defense will give Brady some fits over the course of the game, I think he gets his usual production whether New England wins or loses.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Under.  While I know that Tom Brady has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his last five games, I think he falls short of the projected 325 passing yards. The Baltimore Ravens have a stingy pass defense and I don’t see this game being a shootout. Brady has been laser sharp and efficient with his throws, so even if he throws between 275-300 yards, I think he gets the three touchdown passes anyway. 

WR Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants)—100 receiving yards, one touchdown.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Over. As with Brady, Hakeem Nicks is another player that I’d like to say equal. There is no wide receiver in the playoffs that is hotter than Nicks is right now. A week after shredding the Green Bay Packers, Nicks will carry that momentum with another solid outing against San Francisco. Although the challenge is much greater for Nicks this week, he’s too red hot to bet against.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Under. Although I concede that Hakeem Nicks could just as easily exceed the 100-yard projection, I’m predicting that he’ll fall just short. Why? San Francisco’s defensive backs are better tacklers than most in the league and that could limit Nicks’ ability to tack on yards after the catch. Nicks and quarterback Eli Manning have made the most of the extra attention that defenses are paying to Victor Cruz, and I expect him to continue his productive ways against the Niners. 

RB Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens)—140 total yards, one touchdown.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Under. The Ravens will have to play catch up all day long to keep pace with the Patriots. That means fewer than average carries for Ray Rice. Even factoring in Rice’s ability to catch the ball, Flacco will throw the ball down field a lot more than usual this week. Expect Rice’s totals to be a little below his typical per game average.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Under.  Ray Rice carried the ball 22 times for 159 yards and scored two touchdowns when Baltimore beat New England 33-14 in 2009 postseason play.  He’s the foundation of the Ravens offense and the team is 9-0 when Rice gets at least 20 carries. While the Patriots run defense is nowhere near the caliber of Houston’s, I would bet they studied the game film to see how the Texans mitigated the Flacco-to-Rice screen pass. Despite the Patriots’ best effort, I still like Rice to put up 100-120 combo yards and a score. 

TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers)—Six catches, 90 receiving yards.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Under. Like his quarterback, Vernon Davis had the game of his life last week. This week, the New York Giants will definitely key on Davis. They’ll force Alex Smith and the Niners to find another way to beat them. While Davis very well may hit six receptions, the receiving yards will be tougher to come by.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Under. I think six catches are doable because the 49ers need Vernon Davis to score points and be a factor in the game.  Clearly he’ll be a focal point of the New York Giants defense; however it’s a beatable matchup. Even if Davis falls short on the yards, he could still see the end zone at least once.