IDP Sleepers & Busts: NFC North

Aug 21, 2010

Hello and welcome to the third installment of an eight installment series breaking down all 32 NFL teams from the Individual Defensive Player (IDP) perspective. This series will be taking a look at each team’s respective defensive schemes and how those schemes affect the value of certain defensive players. We will also be discussing some varying levels of sleepers as well as some players to avoid, or better known as busts. This week’s installment will cover the NFC North.

CHICAGO BEARS

DEFENSIVE SCHEME: New defensive coordinators often completely change defensive schemes when brought in to coach. However, new defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli isn’t likely to make many drastic changes to the Bears defense. Marinelli and Head Coach Lovie Smith share a lot of the same basic defensive philosophies and will likely continue to run a lot of cover-2 packages which is good news for owners of Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, and Zach Bowman.

EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs

STONE COLD LOCK: Believe it or not, the IDP fantasy football lock on this team is not Brian Urlacher. It is Lance Briggs. Briggs has been one of the most consistent fantasy linebackers over the last six seasons. During that time span, he has averaged 83 solo tackles or more in every year. Not only is he three years younger than Urlacher, he also benefits from Chicago’s frequent use of cover-2 schemes which directs a lot of plays his way. You should feel very confident with Briggs as your LB2.

ON THE RISE: Cornerback Zach Bowman blossomed into a solid cornerback last season and is edging closer to taking over the reigns from Charles Tillman as the Bears top cornerback. The coaching staff has moved Bowman to the left side of the defense in hopes that he will see increased action. He had 6 interceptions last year and should be able to come close to replicating those numbers and increasing his tackles numbers at the same time this season.

BUST POTENTIAL: Brian Urlacher, along with Ray Lewis, is one of the most recognizable and popular linebackers in the NFL, but he’s not that great of a fantasy player anymore. His decline began in 2008 when he failed to reach 80 solo tackles. He was hurt all of last year and is now 32 years old with a decent amount of competition in Chicago for tackles amongst the linebacking crew. Don’t reach for Urlacher.

COMATOSE SLEEPER: Defensive end Mark Anderson is going undrafted in virtually every league and is a guy to target in deep IDP leagues. He will be playing opposite Julius Peppers in a rotational pass-rushing role. Anderson put up 12.5 sacks in his rookie season and finally has the benefit of an All-Pro lineman in Julius Peppers to take some of the pressure away.

DETROIT LIONS

DEFENSIVE SCHEME: The Lions run an aggressive style, 4-3 defense that should become even more aggressive this season with an increased amount of talent was brought in. The Lions are going to be heavily dependent on their front four to generate pressure on the QB and create turnovers. A lot of the fantasy production is going to come from this part of the defense.

EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: DeAndre Levy, Julian Peterson

STONE COLD LOCK: Many people are calling DeAndre Levy this year’s best IDP “sleeper.” It’s obvious to most that Levy is going to rack up a ton of tackles in the middle of the Lions defense this season. The Lions were confident enough in Levy’s abilities to trade Ernie Sims away in the off-season. Levy will also benefit from having a much improved defensive line and little competition for tackles amongst his fellow linebackers.

ON THE RISE: Fantasy football owners have been waiting for Cliff Avril to best out since his rookie season in 2008. The 3rd round pick out of Purdue is now entering into his third season and is a prime candidate for a significant increase in fantasy production. He has the benefit of playing on one of the most improved defensive lines in the game with the Lions adding the pass-rushing threat of Kyle Vanden Bosch and shoring up the interior of the line by drafting Ndamukong Suh. Avril may have to rotate some now that the Lions have acquired Lawrence Jackson from the Seahawks, but he should be able to do enough damage to be a top 30 defensive lineman.

BUST POTENTIAL: Ndamukong Suh may be one of the best defensive tackles to come out of the draft in the last couple decades, but that doesn’t make him a great fantasy player. He’s current average draft position is 14th for defensive lineman making him perhaps the most overvalued IDP this season. There is no way a defensive tackle is going to put up numbers to justify that draft position. Not only is Suh a defensive tackle, he’s primarily a five-technique defensive tackle who’s main responsibilities will be taking on double teams and clogging the line of scrimmage.Suh is currently ranked at No.53.

COMATOSE SLEEPER: One of the top IDP deep sleepers for the early part of the season is C.C. Brown. He’s gained the starting strong safety position by default since incumbent starter Ko Simpson just got off the PUP list and is questionable for the start of the regular season. Brown has a knack for getting burned in the secondary and racking up a ton of tackles in the process. As long as he’s starting, he’s a great value selection. For more great information on this topic shoot on over and take a look at this article.

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GREEN BAY PACKERS

DEFENSIVE SCHEME: The Packers switched to a 3-4 base defense last season with the arrival of Dom Capers as defensive coordinator. This greatly hurt the fantasy value of Aaron Kampman as he was miscast in an outside linebacker role. No player on the Packers defensive line is of much fantasy value and Nick Barnett is the only solid tackle option within the front seven. The secondary has a couple of nice fantasy options in Charles Woodson, Morgan Burnett, and Nick Collins.

EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: Nick Barnett, Clay Matthews, possibly Brandon Chillar

STONE COLD LOCK: Inside linebacker Nick Barnett bounced back quite nicely last season after having reconstructive knee surgery in the previous year and adapted to the Packers newly-installed 3-4 defense better than most expected. There have been reports of late that Barnett’s knee has been bothering him, but all signs point to him being ready to play for the 2010 season. You can expect a healthy amount of tackles from Barnett as well as 2-4 sacks.

ON THE RISE: Rookie safety Morgan Burnett has been highly impressive in camp and has a firm hold on the starting strong safety position in Green Bay. Last year’s starter Atari Bigby shouldn’t be much competition. He held out for more money during the off-season and is nursing an ankle injury. Burnett has both enough range and tackling ability to be utilized quite productively in Dom Caper’s defensive scheme. He could prove to be one of the top DB rookies this season.

BUST POTENTIAL: Anytime you select a cornerback as a fantasy option, you are taking on a higher bust rate than what you would normally have with a safety. Charles Woodson had a phenomenal season by setting career highs in both total tackles (76) and interceptions (9). The chances of Woodson putting up these type of numbers again are quite low.Expect tackle numbers in the low 60’s and four or five interceptions out of the now 33 year-old Woodson and not much more.

COMATOSE SLEEPER:Brad Jones is currently listed behind Brandon Chillar as the starting ROLB. This is because he’s missed time due to a back injury more so than disappointing play. Jones came on last year with four sacks in his final 6 games and with teams heavily focusing on Clay Matthews, Jones is a good candidate for a better than expected fantasy year.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

DEFENSIVE SCHEME: Minnesota’s defense is centered around their two Pro-Bowl tackles in the Williams “brothers.” When they are healthy and both playing, the Vikings defense is one of the most formidable in the league. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier runs a 4-3 base package with a lot of cover-2 looks. This makes Minnesota’s cornerbacks (Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin) some of the best fantasy corners in the game since this type of system demands that the cornerbacks come up and play the run.

EVERY-DOWN LINEBACKERS: Chad Greenway, E.J. Henderson

STONE COLD LOCK: Is there any doubt on who this player is going to be? I have one word to describe Jared Allen: beast. The guy has a non-stop motor and he’s had 14 or more sacks in three straight seasons. As long as the Williams brothers are playing on the interior of the defensive line, there’s no reason to believe Allen’s production will dip. Being surrounded by such talent allows Allen to avoid constant double-teams.

ON THE RISE: Ray Edwards exploded onto the IDP scene last season with 9 sacks and solid tackle numbers. The former 4th round pick out of Purdue dominated Cowboys RT Marc Columbo in last year’s playoff game and established himself as one of the best up-and-coming defensive ends in the league. Granted, much of Edwards’ success has to be contributed to his position playing across from the best defensive linemen in the league in Jared Allen. Edwards is in the last year of his contract and if he moves teams, his value will drop quite significantly. For this season however, he remains a top 10 defensive lineman.

BUST POTENTIAL: There aren’t any defensive starters on the Vikings that are showing indications of being a fantasy bust this season. If there were players to avoid in this system, it would be the safeties. There hasn’t been a productive fantasy safety in Minnesota since Darren Sharper in 2005. The fact is with the Vikings playing so many cover-2 schemes, the safeties are often dropping back into deep coverage and their tackle numbers suffer.

COMATOSE SLEEPER: E.J. Henderson is not a comatose sleeper in name, but rather in value. His current positional ADP is #42 which is too low for him even though he’s coming off of a broken leg. The injury looked worse than the recovery time. Players often times come back from broken legs quicker than a torn ACL. Henderson is in line to start Week 1 and, if he can stay healthy, he’s going to put up very good LB2 numbers. In 2007 (his last fully healthy season), he put up 95 solo tackles, 24 assists, 5.5 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. Enough said.

More IDP Sleepers & Busts (click to read)

NFC WEST | NFC SOUTH | NFC NORTH | NFC EAST

AFC EAST | AFC NORTH | AFC SOUTH | AFC WEST

If you have any further IDP questions feel free to shoot Ryan an email at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or drop a line in our IDP Forums.

As always, for more great IDP information, visit the IDP Guru at www.idpguru.com.

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IDP Sleepers & Busts: NFC North