Aug 17, 2012
Ever have a game plan heading into your fantasy football draft and believe that you may have reached for some picks targeting specific players? That’s why looking at Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers is helpful because they track drafts–mock and otherwise–happening everywhere. Studying ADP can’t account for the rookie fantasy football owner throwing everything off track by picking Ben Roethlisberger and Vernon Davis before the Round 4 is over, but it should give you a good idea of which players will be available at which rounds for each draft position. Varying strategies and scoring rules will also dictate how much your draft strays from ADP numbers, however the most important thing here is getting idea of reasonable predictions based on fantasy football rankings and importance of position.
Here is a sample of the biggest FALLERS at the running back position in ADP, charted on Fantasy Football Calculator using 12 teams and standard scoring over the time July 13-Aug 13, however in future weeks we’ll be looking at shorter time ranges to see who’s moving based on the first week pre-season games. PPR numbers are in parenthesis.
FALLING DOWN THE CHARTS
Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos
ADP: 10.02-11.06 (9.03-10.07)
Rookie Ronnie Hillman was seen early in camp in passing formations, but a hamstring injury held up his fast track to playing time and he missed several days, including the preseason opener and Lance Ball got the reps instead. As a result, Hillman’s ADP has taken a hit dropping over a full round deep in the later rounds and while hamstring injuries typically linger for weeks, we think waiting another preseason game or two, maybe even a regular season game will show how much they are planning to use Hillman. Besides, It may be a far reach to go out and draft him today unless you’re just taking a flyer on young talent. We understand the interest, but Hillman could be an early season add/drop in many leagues.
Bruno Boys Verdict: Slightly Agree
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Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami Dolphins
ADP: 10.05 to 12.02 (9.08 to 10.12)
The big second year bruiser out of Kansas State faces a stiff challenge from rookie Lamar Miller to become the No. 2 option in the run game behind Reggie Bush. We don’t see this merely as a battle to win the backup job, but an early audition for the future. Bush is in a contract year and regardless of being fully utilized, we think Bush will be with a new team next year. So if the team wants a traditional big back to grind out yardage Thomas is the man. If they want to replicate the elusive speed and versatility of Bush, then they can work Miller in. By design, Miller was drafted to be the change-of-pace back, but he has been impressive thus far in practice, but in preseason action neither back has an edge. This is just too early for us to concede Thomas’ place on the depth charts.
Bruno Boys Verdict: Disagree
James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 6.10 to 8.05 (6.02 to 7.12)
The third-year back already isn’t a popular draft choice even though the Packers threaten to score on every possession. A turf toe injury is slowing down Starks even further. You can’t blame fantasy football owners; Starks’ scored one touchdown in two seasons and hasn’t averaged more than 45 yards per game. Compare that to fullback John Kuhn’s six touchdowns with just 45 touches last season. Starks did not help his situation by failing to improve his pass-catching skills in the offseason and the team picked up Cedric Benson who launched nearly 40 spots in ADP since becoming a Packer. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Starks to freefall further and Benson to overtake him in another week or two in ADP, especially if the turf toe lingers on–which it usually does. Just imagine a goal line personnel package with Benson and Kuhn.
Bruno Boys Verdict: Agree
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers – Team doctors said Mathews’ fractured collarbone will keep him sidelined three to six weeks. We’re not as hopeful. We like his potential in a PPR league but it’s hard to spend such a high pick on a player who can’t seem stay healthy. Verdict: Agree
Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns – T-Rich dropped a full round in ADP since getting his knee cleaned with arthroscopic surgery. Let’s hope this is just a minor setback; at the very least, it should bring Richardson’s lofty expectations back to planet Earth. Verdict: Agree