Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Each and every fantasy football contest from here on out has the make-up of a do-or-die outing. With that being the case, the Bruno Boys know you have questions. We address some of these in the Week 17 edition of the Bruno Boys Fantasy Football Roundtable. Also with this being the last regular season roundtable article we’d like to thank everyone for making it part of their weekly fantasy football routine. Make sure to check back throughout the off season as we will continue to

WEEK 17 BURNING QUESTIONS

1. With just one week left in the NFL, we know which six teams will be representing the NFC in the playoffs but the AFC is wide open. All of the division winners are in place but there are five teams sitting at 8-7 and fighting for two wild card spots. Out of these five teams, who takes care of business and snags the last two playoff spots in the AFC?

Bruno Boys Whooley: Going into the weekend, it is the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets that hold their own fate in their hands. While I think the Ravens are a shoe in to get things done against the Oakland Raiders (the Raiders just have no way of slowing down running back, Ray Rice), the Jets’ situation is a complex one. Whether New York is able to take care of the Cincinnati Bengals or not will depend, in my opinion, on what the Bengals’ decide to do with their starters. With their game being the late one, they will know their final seeding for the playoffs prior to kick off, which makes me believe they’ll rest their big names. That should be enough for the Jets to get the win. If the Jets falter though, look for the Denver Broncos, who have a nice Week 17 match-up against the Kansas City Chiefs at home to sneak their way into the post-season.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: It’s crazy how it works. Each NFL team has played 15 games and for five AFC teams it all boils down to the final week of the season. With two playoff spots in the AFC up for grabs it’s the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens who control their own destiny. Both of these teams will be playing in a “win and your in” game while the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos need win and receive help to backdoor themselves into the postseason. With there being so much parity in the NFL it’s tough to say the Ravens should take care of business and beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 17 but if they to their potential it should happen. Look for the Ravens to take care of business on Sunday and claim one of the wild card spots in the AFC.  As for the Jets, they will be in a dog-fight on Sunday night football with the Cincinnati Bengals. Even with Cincy having nothing to play for, and likely resting their starters at some point, don’t expect them to lay down and concede. This game will boil down to rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez and his ability to play on National TV with the season on the line. I don’t think he gets the job done and thus the Jets fail to wrap up the final playoff spot.

So who claims the last spot in the AFC? The Denver Broncos. Even with star wide receiver Brandon Marshall being ruled OUT of action in Week 17, you can expect Denver to have a balanced attack that will ultimately be too much for a Kansas City Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in points allowed. So there you have it, based on my predictions the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos will claim the last two wild card spots in the AFC.

WEEK 17 LIGHTNING ROUND  (Fantasy Football Questions in a Flash)

Boom or Bust in 2010?

1. Laurence Maroney, RB, New England Patriots

Bruno Boys Cavigs: BUST. Being a pleasant surprise in 2009, Maroney had a streak of six straight games with a touchdown and he has scored nine total TDs on the season. Quite impressive; however, with the New England Patriots being a pass first offense and controlled by a head coach who is secretive about his personnel decisions, it’s tough to recommend you target Maroney in 2010. Expect him to have some big games combined with some bad ones and be nothing more than an risky play most weeks. Plus, it doesn’t help that New England gets 4-5 running backs involved in the offense every week. 

Bruno Boys Whooley: BUST. I know Maroney finally delivered for fantasy football owners this season with seven double digit performances on the year, but I just can’t place my trust in him for 2010. One thing Bill Belichick will not tolerate is fumbles, and Maroney has shown a penchant for putting the ball on the ground with four fumbles on the year. A few quick fumbles in 2010 could land him in the dog house leading to another down year.

2. Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Bruno Boys Whooley: BOOM. All season long, I have been pleading with Seattle Seahawks’ head coach, Jim Mora, to come to his sense and realize what football fans all over the nation already understand - Justin Forsett is the most talented back on his roster. Not only is Forsett averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season; he also is a dual threat that can make plays as a receiver out of the backfield.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: BOOM. It’s quite obvious that when Justin Forsett is in the football game the Seattle Seahawks offense is more well rounded. Julius Jones has been nothing but a change of pace back for most of his career and he isn’t going to do anything well enough to be an an impact player. A lot like we’ve seen from Jamaal Charles this year, Forsett makes things happen when he touches the football. Still, I would go into 2010 targeting him no more than a low-end RB3 because I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle looks at some available running backs in the NFL Draft this April.

3. Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns

Bruno Boys Cavigs: BUST. Though he might enter 2010 a bit over-hyped after his stellar finish to 2009, Harrison has done a good job of proving to his doubters that if you get him the football he can produce. Still, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered before I can suggest you target him early in next years fantasy football drafts. For one, I’d like to see what Harrison does as an every down running back against a good defense, because running all over the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders doesn’t make you the “real deal.”

Bruno Boys Whooley: BOOM. The Browns’ back is essentially auditioning for the starting job at the moment, and with 434 yards rushing and 4 TDs over his last two games, I’d say the audition is going well. Do I think he’s a RB1 play based on his running of late? No, but I do think he’ll make for a solid RB2 next year.

4. Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Bruno Boys Whooley: BOOM. Yes, he has tailed off some of late after his ferocious start to the season, but if you look closer, the drop in production is more due to a lack of TDs than yardage. That should alleviate concerns surrounding Benson for 2010 because with as many carries as he gets a game, TD opportunities will return.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: BUST. My decision to place Benson as a “bust” pick has to do with his draft position. Benson enters Week 17 as the No.12 fantasy running back in standard scoring leagues and if weren’t for an injury that forced him to miss two games he’d likely be in the top-8. Based on these statistics Benson is likely to enter 2010 as a second round draft choice but I don’t see him producing at that level. It’s been two months since he’s scored a touchdown and I don’t think the Bengals signed Larry Johnson to be strictly a back-up. Look for Cincinnati to use a more balanced ground attack that features Benson, Johnson and Bernard Scott.

5. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Bruno Boys Cavigs: BOOM. Before anyone starts questioning my decision on Forte and his fantasy value in 2010 let me explain. This year, fantasy owners’ drafted Forte to be their No.1 running back and get you close to 100 yards and a touchdown each week. We all know that didn’t happen and because of this Forte will be drafted as a low-end RB2 in 2010. Expect the Bears to spend their off-season trying to improve their offensive line and find some balance in an offense than ran the ball just 40-percent of the time this year. Forte won’t get back to his rookie status but he will improve on his numbers from a year ago.

Bruno Boys Whooley: BUST. A top-4 pick in many fantasy drafts this past off-season, Forte has fallen well short of expectations with just 138 fantasy points through 15 weeks of play. What fantasy owners need to be concerned about is the back’s low yard-per-carry average. Even during his stellar rookie year, the back was only amassing 3.9 yards per carry. This year that number has dropped even lower as he’s hitting only 3.4 yards per run. Many will look at Forte as a nice value pick for 2010, but I’m thinking he disappoints once more.

WEEK 17 MATCH-UPS  (Who’ll Have the Better Week?)

1. Jamaal Charles (KC) vs. Knowshon Moreno (Den)

Bruno Boys Whooley: CHARLES. The Kansas City Chiefs may rank 31st in the league against the run, giving up 161.3 rushing yards per game to go along with 16 rushing TDs on the year, but even with the more difficult match-up, I have to roll with this year’s best waiver wire pick up, the consistent Charles, who has 12+ fantasy points in six of his last seven games.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: CHARLES. If you’ve following my articles throughout the season you will know that my secret to fantasy success is to develop your roster around consistency and Charles is just that. Since taking over as the starter in Kansas City he’s scored 10+ fantasy points in all but one outing and Week 16 marked the first time in six weeks that Charles failed to score a touchdown. Denver allows over 100 yards per game against the run and Charles is the safer play to rack up the total yardage points.

2. Donald Brown (Ind) vs. Fred Jackson (Buf)

Bruno Boys Cavigs:  JACKSON. Despite being in a split backfield with Marshawn Lynch, it’s been Jackson that has looked like the better running back in Buffalo. He’s outplayed Lynch in each of the last five games and I like his chances of finishing the season strong against an Indianapolis Colts defense that will be resting their starters on the defensive side of the football.

Bruno Boys Whooley: BROWN. The Colts’ rookie running back’s season hasn’t gone exactly as planned as injuries have plagued him throughout the year; however, he is still a weapon the Colts could potentially use in the playoffs. As such, they’ll look to get him plenty of reps here in week 17, which should translate into a solid fantasy performance against the worst rush defense in the league.

3. Jerome Harrison (Cle) vs. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)

Bruno Boys Whooley: JONES-DREW. I know Harrison has been on a roll of late. As mentioned above, he has 434 rushing yards and 4 TDs over his last two games. However, I’m going to roll with the guy who has been on a roll on season long in MJD. The Jaguars back has thrived as the main man in Jacksonville this season and should continue to do so on Sunday against the 28th ranked rush defense of the Cleveland Browns.

Bruno Boys Cavigs: JONES-DREW. How can bet against 73 carries, 434 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a two game span? It’s simple… Maurice Jones-Drew.Harrison will likely touch the rock 25-39 times for the third straight week, but it’s MJD that has done it since Week 1 and nothing changes against a Cleveland Browns defense that ranks 28th in the NFL against the run.

4. Devin Aromashodu (Chi) vs. Calvin Johnson (Det)

Bruno Boys Cavigs: JOHNSON. Both of these players will find openings in the defense throughout the game on Sunday but it’s Megatron who’s track record extends beyond four games and because of this I have to roll with his experience. He rebounded for a seven reception, 96-yard performance in Week 16 and the Bears’ lack the cornerbacks to defense his size and physical play.

Bruno Boys Whooley: AROMASHODU. Call me crazy if you like, but the rookie wide out is coming off a stellar 150 yard and TD day from Week 16 and has 13+ fantasy points in two of his last three games. With Devin Hester and Johnny Knox likely out for Sunday’s affair with the Lions, Aromashodu should see plenty of chances to rack up fantasy points against a Lions’ team that gives up 23.3 fantasy points to the position per week.