Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

As the season is wrapping up, one of the things I’m pondering is how a player’s performance in 2009 compares to 2008, and most of all, how that affects the way we’ll draft them for the 2010 season. With PPR leagues (points per reception) becoming increasingly popular, I thought I’d take a look at RBs and WRs that have seen either a solid increase or decrease in their number of receptions between the 2008 and 2009 seasons. I’ve included the charts below and sort of a smattering of thoughts on some players.

First up, I looked at the top 40 RBs by number of receptions for this season and compared that to their 2008 receptions. I also tossed in a few other players of interest at the bottom.

RUNNING BACK RECEPTIONS REPORT

• There are some RBs who are going to be first or second round picks next season who impressively upped their receptions by 100% or more this year including Ray Rice, Joseph Addai, Rashard Mendenhall, and Adrian Peterson. However when you look at Addai a little more closely it looks like 2008’s 25 receptions are the real aberration. In 2007 and 2006, Addai had 41 and 40 receptions, respectively. So, while his 51 receptions this year are an incredible increase on 2008, it is more in line with what he’s done in the past. Addai’s performance this season should be enough to warrant him an early draft pick in 2010. Unless news about the Donald Brown carries/time split changes drastically over the offseason, Addai could be a great value grab in PPR leagues if others in your league are too nervous to draft him early.

• There are a slew of players you might want to target as RB2s in 2010 including Tim Hightower, Darren Sproles, Cadillac Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Brandon Jacobs. All of these guys upped their receptions by a good chunk this year and Stewart and Jacobs in particular could be very strong RB2 plays next year. Also, Sproles’ value depends on Tomlinson’s status of course, but Sproles is likely already on your radar as a valuable RB2.

• Seattle’s backfield has clearly favored the passing game more in 2009. Justin Forsett went from 0 to 39 receptions and Julius Jones increased his receptions by nearly 150%. Maybe the lack of Houshmandzadeh panning out as a go-to wide receiver forced Hasselbeck to check down to his RBs more often; or perhaps the Seahawks are capitalizing on Forsett’s ability to catch; or maybe even Hasselbeck is relying on his RBs for short passes as he seems to be lacking the accuracy or force down field that he once had. Whatever the reason, developments with this backfield, offensive line, and even Hasselbeck are definitely worth keeping an eye on during the offseason.

• Philly is clearly keeping the receiving RB trend going with LeSean McCoy. While Brian Westbrook’s receptions obviously went down, McCoy picked up a fair amount of slack with 38 receptions of his own.

• Others to watch closely over the offseason include Jamaal Charles, Jerome Harrison, and Leon Washington. Don’t let Washington escape your memory - due to injury he decreased his receptions considerably, but if he can get back up to 2008’s level of receptions (47), he’s well worth a mid-round grab.

Now let’s take a look at wide receivers - again I looked at the top 40 WRs (plus a few others of interest) by number of receptions this season and compared that to their 2008 receptions.

WIDE RECEIVER RECEPTIONS REPORT

• As if we needed any more reasons to love Miles Austin and Sidney Rice: both players increased their number of receptions by over 400% this season while hauling in 1200+ yards. These are definitely guys you’re going to see going in the 3rd and 4th rounds next season. Keep in mind that the ever-present Favre offseason saga should be considered when determining when to draft Rice as well.

• A few other gems for PPR leagues including Andre Caldwell, Mike Sims-Walker, Austin Collie, Jeremy Maclin, and Giants receivers Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. Meanwhile, use caution with Nate Burleson who has been very up and down over the past few years (2007: 50 receptions, 2006: 18 receptions).

• Marques Colston and Devery Henderson each saw about a 50% increase in their receptions, but note that Lance Moore (at one time an absolute PPR delight) of course was lost to injury - so temper your expectations for how receptions will pan out in New Orleans in 2010. While I’m a huge fan of Colston and I certainly think he’ll go in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of most drafts, PPRers should prepare for a decrease in receptions next year.

• Another interesting development is with Miami’s receivers - both Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo came into the 2009 season with fairly similar and solid reception stats. Bess pulled ahead this year with 71 receptions for 673 yards (and 1 TD) as compared to Camarillo’s 47 receptions for 530 yards. Ted Ginn Jr. also decreased his receptions by 37.5% giving Bess the real edge in 2010 drafts.

To see other articles written by the Fantasy Football Librarian click here…. A Librarian’s Touch Archives

The Bruno Boys are pleased to once again welcome guest columnist, Sara Holladay, back for her feature,A Librarian’s Touch, for the 2009 season. The woman behind the web-site, Fantasy Football Librarian, Holladay is someone all fantasy owners should be well familiar with if they want to win their league’s title as she provides some of the best fantasy football insight and resources found around the web!