Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

This time of year is for retrospective analysis, and today, I thought I’d take a look at some of the changes between this season and last in terms of rush defenses and receiving defenses (data courtesy of ESPN). Going into a new season, we always base some of our start/sit decisions during the first month or so on what we know about a defense from the previous season. After only two weeks of the 2009 season, I suggested here on A Librarian’s Touch that the Giants rush defense wasn’t quite the same force as they had been in the past - and it’s true, this season they gave up 15.66% more yards per game than in 2008. But, back in September, that seemed hard to swallow and many fantasy footballers out there shied away from starting RBs against the Giants despite their weakened rush defense.

So, this article is not only a look at some of the biggest ups and downs between 2008 and 2009, but also a reminder that it is possible for some defenses to really change things around in a season. Coaches can leave, injuries can happen, new players can be acquired - keep all of these things in mind as the off-season unravels.

Let’s take a look at the rush defense comparisons from 2009 to 2008:

RUSH DEFENSE 2009 to 2008 COMPARISON

A few things to note here:

• Quite the impressive turnaround for the Green Bay Packers’ rush defense. Though frankly, there are quite a few teams that really bumped up their game this season as Dallas, San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Atlanta all made significant gains in their run defense.

• But, the most amazing gain (second to the Packers) comes from…the Detroit Lions? Oh yeah, that’s right. Let’s put this in context first though - while the Lions did decrease the number of rushing yards allowed from 172.1/game to 126.6/game, it’s worth noting that their receiving defense (see below) somehow got worse this year. With such an easy team to pass on, did teams hold back on rushing against them? Then again, perhaps the Lions put up a better fight this year (improved from 30th to 26th in total offense), which perhaps meant fewer teams just ran out the clock against them with rush after rush.

• Biggest busts in terms of rush defenses this year? Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo - no surprises there, right?

• Finally, last year’s top-3 rush defenses allowed 81.5 yards/game on the ground or fewer. The best rush defense this year allowed an average of 83.3 yards/game. Has the caliber of rush defenses declined ever so slightly? Or does this reflect the impressive performances of Chris Johnson and other top RBs in 2009?

Meanwhile, let’s scope out receiving defenses between 2009 and 2008:

PASS DEFENSE 2009 to 2008 COMPARISON

Things to think about:

• Major kudos to both the New York Jets and the Denver Broncos defenses for moving way up from somewhere in the depths of the 20s to the tops of the rankings of pass defenses this year (thank you, Revis!). In fact, if you look at the top-4 teams in the rankings this year, 3 of the 4 were in the bottom half of the rankings in 2008.

• Meanwhile, some of last year’s top dogs in limiting opposing receivers really tanked - Pittsburgh’s fall from 1st place is probably the most dramatic with their yards allowed per game increasing at a rate of 31.5% over last year. Cleveland was sitting pretty at 7th last year and tumbled down to 30th this year. Plus, the Titans really seemed to flop this year as expected with their receiving D allowing 26% more yards per game and the rushing D allowed 14% more yards per game.

• Interestingly, Kansas City’s receiving defense barely changed (less than 1% difference in yards per game allowed) and yet they rose from 26th to 20th. What does this say about the overall caliber of receiving defenses this season; perhaps the ability to cover receivers declined this year?

• It does make you wonder how much impact a single player can have on a team - did Darrelle Revis singlehandedly boost the Jets up with his high level of play this year? And was Albert Haynesworth really the glue that held the entire Titans defense together?

To see other articles written by the Fantasy Football Librarian click here…. A Librarian’s Touch Archives

The Bruno Boys are pleased to once again welcome guest columnist, Sara Holladay, back for her feature,A Librarian’s Touch, for the 2009 season. The woman behind the web-site, Fantasy Football Librarian, Holladay is someone all fantasy owners should be well familiar with if they want to win their league’s title as she provides some of the best fantasy football insight and resources found around the web!