Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Kyle Smith
- Edited by Marc Caviglia
- Predictions are based on Staff Consensus

::RANKINGS UPDATED AS OF SEPTEMBER 8, 2012::

Fantasy football has returned. Four sweeter words are rarely spoken, and this is the week we get to say them. Unfortunately, injury has already played a part in the rankings, as it was unknown as of this writing whether top option Jason Witten would be able to play, necessitating a drop in his standing for the week. Aside from that, the names on our initial rankings should be mostly familiar to fantasy owners. The question from here on out is – when will new names emerge? But we’re getting ahead of ourselves, so let’s go ahead and take a look at the fantasy football tight end rankings for Week 1.

1. Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots) @ Tennessee

Gronkowski is the obvious number one tight end, and either a first or second-round pick in fantasy drafts. Though Jimmy Graham’s 99 receptions were nine more than Gronk’s total, Gronkowski led all tight ends with 1,327 yards and a ridiculous 17 touchdown grabs (a number which, of course, led all players). He’ll begin the 2012 season the way he began the 2011 season – with a scoring grab and 80+ receiving yards.
Point Projection: 14 points

2. Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints) vs. Washington

As we mentioned above, Graham led all tight ends with 99 catches, and only Gronkowski had more than Graham’s 1,310 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. He ended last season with six touchdowns over his last five games (including the playoffs), and when you consider the fact that this is just his fourth season of football (he had only one season in college), his arrow is pointing directly up, and it’s not impossible to think he’ll post better numbers than Gronkowski this season. For this week though, we have Graham just a smidge behind Gronk.
Point Projection: 13 points

3. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers) @ Green Bay

Vernon Davis and Facebook have something in common – each has seen their stock plummet. Davis didn’t come close to doing what most people thought he would last season, and instead of finally reaching 1,000 receiving yards after amassing over 900 yards in both 2009 and 2010, he failed to reach even 800 yards. Davis had just five games of at least 50 receiving yards, and three of those came in Weeks 15-17. However, he did have over 100 yards and two touchdowns in each of San Francisco’s playoff games, and we like him a lot this week against a Packers team that allowed more receiving yards to opposing tight ends last season than any other team in the league.
Point Projection: 11 points

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4. Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers) @ Oakland

Despite playing in only 12 games in 2011, Gates still finished 10th among tight ends in catches and receiving yards, and tied for fourth in touchdowns. He’s healthy now, and though it’s impossible to predict how long that will last for the 32-year-old, rest assured that he’ll be productive when he’s on the field. Among the 12 games Gates played last season were two against the Raiders, and in those two games he had 10 catches for 160 yards and one score. We’re confident he’ll continue to burn them this week.
Point Projection: 11 points

5. Aaron Hernandez (New England Patriots) @ Tennessee

Hernandez is often overlooked by fantasy owners, which is understandable when you consider that his teammate, the aforementioned Rob Gronkowski, is the top player at Hernandez’s position. But Hernandez offers plenty of value on his own, and at the end of last season added a few extra points as the Patriots utilized his athleticism by allowing him to take handoffs. But Hernandez is going to help win fantasy championships with his receiving skills, and against a Titans team that was among the 10 worst in the league in stopping opposing tight ends last season, he should get off to a very good start.
Point Projection: 10 points

6. Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons) @ Kansas City

Here’s were Gonzalez was at the end of last year, among other tight ends. Catches: fourth. Receiving yards: fifth. Touchdowns: fourth (tied). We know he’s 36, and Julio Jones is set to take a step up, but we still have faith that Gonzalez will produce enough to make fantasy owners happy with their decision to draft him. We also have to believe he’s a little more motivated this week, as he’ll make his first appearance in Kansas City since going to Atlanta three seasons ago.
Point Projection: 8 points

7. Jermichael Finley (Green Bay Packers) vs. San Francisco

The breakout that most were expecting from Finley last season never materialized, and fantasy owners were repeatedly burned, as he turned in five performances of 30 or fewer receiving yards. Sure, there were flashes, such as his three touchdown game against the Bears, but he never had even 90 receiving yards in a game, much less 100. Finley wasn’t a bust last season, but his production was merely above average, instead of exceptional. We think he’ll fail to be exceptional this week as well. As for the rest of the season? Yet to be determined.
Point Projection:  8 points

8. Fred Davis (Washington Redskins) @ New Orleans

We love Davis this season, for a lot of reasons. First, he’s the best receiver on their team, and with Chris Cooley having been jettisoned, there is zero competition for snaps. Davis will be working with a rookie quarterback, and though RG3 looks like the real deal, he should be looking Davis’ way often with Washington’s average group of wideouts. Davis should easily approach 75 catches and 1,000 yards this season, and that starts this week.
Point Projection: 8 points

9. Jared Cook (Tennessee Titans) vs. New England

If Cook wasn’t firmly on your fantasy radar screen before your draft, you missed the boat. His numbers last season weren’t gaudy by any means – 49 catches for 759 yards three touchdowns – but his yards per catch average of 15.5 was the second-highest of any tight end in the league with at least 10 receptions. At age 25, he’s an ascending player, and fantasy owners who took him later in drafts got a potential steal.
Point Projection: 7 points

10. Dustin Keller (New York Jets) vs. Buffalo

Keller is dealing with a hamstring issue, but all indications are that he’ll suit up for the Jets when they take on the Bills this week. This is a good thing for his fantasy owners because no team allowed more fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season than Buffalo, and Keller was a part of that, catching eight passes for 125 yards and two scores against them in two games last season.
Point Projection: 7 points

11. Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions) vs. St. Louis

Pettigrew had 83 receptions a season ago, good for third-most at the tight end position. Unfortunately, he managed just 777 yards, which is less than 9.5 yards per catch, and 11th among tight ends. His five touchdowns were a solid number, but we’d like to see him pick up more yards before being confident with placing him among our top-10 tight ends on a weekly basis.
Point Projection: 7 points

12. Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers) @ Tampa Bay

Olsen had a very good start to last season, but a precipitous drop-off in the final weeks of the season, in which he failed to catch more than two passes in any of his last five games, led to a tumbling fantasy stock this year. But Jeremy Shockey is no longer around to snap up Olsen’s looks, and we like him to bounce back, starting against Tampa, despite his limited success against the Bucs last season (one catch for 21 yards in two games against them).
Point Projection: 6 points

13. Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys) @ New York Giants

Witten ruptured his spleen three weeks ago and there is no guarantee he plays in Week 1. He is pushing to be medically cleared, however there is no guarantee. Whether he plays or not, don’t expect much. You can insert some combination of James Hanna and John Phillips here if you like – the point is, playing any of them is probably going to leave fantasy owners with minimal production.
Point Projection: 6 points

14. Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati Bengals) @ Baltimore

Gresham’s six touchdown catches last season overshadowed his overall disappointing play, as he wound up with a paltry 596 receiving yards. But he had at least three receptions in each contest, and in Week 17 had five catches for 72 yards against the Ravens, who he’ll square off against this week. We don’t think he’ll quite get there this week, but he should come relatively close.
Point Projection: 6 points

15. Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles) @ Cleveland

Celek’s terribly slow start to last season, in which he had fewer than 15 receiving yards in four of Philly’s first five games, cost him plenty of fans among fantasy owners. He managed to turn things around in the second half of the season, however, and scored in each of the Eagles final three games. But we value consistency here at Bruno Boys, and Celek hasn’t shown enough for us to put a lot of faith in him.
Point Projection: 5 points