Sep 27, 2011
- Written by Ryan Boser
- Edited by Marc Caviglia
- Predictions are based on Staff Consensus
::RANKINGS UPDATED AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2011::
With three exciting weeks of action behind us, the NFL has clearly continued its’ shift to a passing league. A mind-bending 21 different signal callers have already eclipsed the once-venerable 300-yard plateau this season. We saw some fresh faces atop the quarterback leaderboard in Week 3—Eli Manning snapped out of his funk against the ballyhooed Eagles’ secondary, and Joe Flacco found a new best friend in St. Louis. Across the league, Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick continued to vastly outperform their draft positions, while Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees further validated theirs.
On the flip side, we were forced to pump the brakes on rookie sensation Cam Newton this week—while NFL defenses have struggled to contain him, he was no match for Mother Nature in Carolina. Tom Brady carved out a piece of history in Buffalo, but his four interceptions equaled his total from all of last season. Finally, Michael Vick failed to make it through an entire game for the second consecutive week, and Philip Rivers inexplicably flopped in a cupcake matchup with the Chiefs.
Let’s sort through the madness and take a look at our Week 4 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings.
Standard Scoring
Pass TD: 4 points | All Other TDs: 6 points
25 Passing Yards: 1 point | All Turnovers: -2 points
10 Rushing Yards: 1 point | 10 Receiving Yards: 1 point
1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) at Oakland
While Tom Brady’s four interceptions may have cost New England the game in Buffalo, he delivered another outstanding fantasy performance with (a season-low) 386 yards and four touchdowns. He’s now thrown for a staggering 1,326 yards (a three-game NFL record) and 11 touchdowns on the young season, and there’s absolutely no reason to expect a speed bump in Oakland. The Raiders rank No. 30 in defending fantasy quarterbacks despite facing a less-than-elite slate of Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez. Coming off a stinging loss in which they felt cheated out of a final possession, don’t be surprised if the spiteful Bill Belichick lets Brady hang a half-a-hundred on the Raiders.
Point Projection: 27 points
2. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) vs. Denver
While he’s not putting up the same astronomical numbers as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers has been every bit as good as advertised. Rodgers was outstanding in what may have been his toughest matchup of the year in Chicago, and through three games he’s averaged 306 yards, totaled eight touchdowns and has been intercepted just once. Denver’s decimated defense has surrendered over 310 yards and multiple scores to Andy Dalton and Matt Hasselbeck in consecutive weeks, so anything less than 325 and three scores should be considered a letdown here.
Point Projection: 25 points
3. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) at Jacksonville
Drew Brees has hit the touchdown trifecta in all three games this season. While his first two interceptions of the season were a bit annoying, nobody’s complaining about 370 yards against a Houston secondary that had allowed just 367 in their first two games combined. Jacksonville presents a neutral opponent on the road, and Brees has had his way with markedly more talented secondaries than the Jaguars’ already this season. The guy’s as close to automatic as they come, regardless of opponent, venue or the health of his pass-catchers.
Point Projection: 23 points
4. Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) at Dallas
Matthew Stafford continues to impress—through three games he’s averaging a robust 326 yards and three touchdowns. Only Tom Brady and Drew Brees have produced more fantasy points at the position. Calvin Johnson is arguably the best wide receiver in the league, so Stafford has the ability and the means to continue this pace as long as he’s healthy. There’s nothing scary about a matchup with the Cowboys’ ragged secondary, so you’re obviously sticking with Stafford this week.
Point Projection: 22 points
5. Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) vs. Miami
Even without Antonio Gates, Philip Rivers was supposed to go bananas against the hapless Chiefs in Week 3. Not the case. Rivers managed just 262 yards and two interceptions, failing to throw a touchdown pass against a Kansas City defense that had allowed four scores a piece to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matthew Stafford in the first two weeks of the season. He should rebound nicely against Miami this week. The Dolphins took an epic beat down by Tom Brady in the opener, and they’ve allowed over 200 yards and a pair of scores to both Matt Schaub and Colt McCoy in the past two weeks.
Point Projection: 21 points
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6. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Detroit
After topping 340 yards and notching a pair of scores in each of his first two games, Tony Romo fought through a broken rib and numerous mental mistakes by his young Cowboy teammates Monday night in an ugly victory. Romo managed just 255 yards, an interception and no touchdowns, but he should get back on track in a matchup with Detroit that should feature plenty of throwing. The Lions’ secondary has played well early, but they’ve yet to face a quarterback of Romo’s caliber. Make sure the gunslinger is in your Week lineup.
Point Projection: 20 points
7. Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. San Francisco
This season is quickly turning into the worst-case scenario for Michael Vick owners. While he dodged a bullet after early reports of a broken non-throwing hand proved false, he’s now been knocked out of back-to-back games, costing fantasy owners crucial points. Earlier in the week, Vick’s status for Week 4, however he practiced the majority of the week and is ready to take on the soft 49ers secondary. The Eagles’ abundance of playmakers will aid well for Vick and his fantasy owners, and if he can stay on the field you can expect a top-10 fantasy performance from the most entertaining player in the NFL.
Point Projection: 19 points
8. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) at Cincinnati
The 3-0 Buffalo Bills are the story of the early season, and this fairytale begins and ends with former St. Louis 7th-rounder Ryan Fitzpatrick. Through three games the cagey 28-year old has averaged 280 passing yards while compiling a stellar nine touchdowns to four interceptions. The Bengals pass defense looks good on paper, but they’ve faced the likes of Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Alex Smith. Fitzpatrick certainly looks like the real deal, so keep riding him until he proves otherwise.
Point Projection: 19 points
9. Eli Manning (New York Giants) at Arizona
Eli Manning is heating up just in time to exploit the soft underbelly of his schedule—his next six games are favorable matchups against Arizona, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, New England and San Francisco. Eli was a nightmare for Philadelphia’s “Dream Team” secondary Sunday, completing 16 of 23 passes for 254 yards and four touchdowns. Cam Newton made history against the Cardinals in the opener, Rex Grossman went for 292 yards and two scores in Week 2, and in Week 3 they allowed Tarvaris Jackson to vaguely resemble an NFL quarterback. Manning is streaky, and he has a great chance to stay hot here.
Point Projection: 18 points
10. Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears) vs. Carolina
We all know Jay Cutler is mistake-prone—he’s been intercepted 10 times in his last nine games, and under constant duress behind a porous line, he puts the ball on the ground far too often. On the bright side, Cutler’s topped 300 yards and thrown multiple touchdowns in two of three games this season, so he’s atoning for his gaffes. Coincidentally, Kevin Kolb and Aaron Rodgers both topped 300 yards and threw multiple touchdowns against Carolina this year, and with the Bears neglecting the run you’d imagine Cutler has a chance to to the same. Cutler looks like a solid play in this one.
Point Projection: 17 points
11. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) at Seattle
Coming off an impressive four-touchdown performance against Philadelphia, Matt Ryan topped 315 yards for the second time in three games in Tampa Bay. Ryan also connected with Tony Gonzalez for another touchdown, but that score was likely offset (depending on your scoring system) by an interception and two lost fumbles. Seattle has been surprisingly stingy against opposing quarterbacks, surrendering just two passing scores and no 300-yard efforts on the season. While Ryan has the playmakers on the outside and over the middle to post solid numbers, don’t expect the Seahawks to roll over in the battle of the birds.
Point Projection: 17 points
12. Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals) vs. New York Giants
After two straight two-touchdown performances, Kevin Kolb came up short against a beatable Seattle defense Sunday. He threw for 252 yards, a score and two interceptions in the Cardinals’ lifeless loss. The Giants gave up over 300 yards to both Rex Grossman and Sam Bradford to open the season, and they’re still trying to get healthy and adjusted after a horrible string of preseason injuries. All four of Kolb’s career 300-plus yard games have come at home, and we like his chances of doing it again.
Point Projection: 16 points
13. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Houston
Ben Roethlisberger isn’t packing the fantasy punch that many expected after an outstanding preseason. He’s averaging an impressive 314 yards per game, but he’s thrown just one touchdown in each of his three games. What’s more, he’s been intercepted four times behind a depleted offensive line. While Drew Brees went for 370 and three against Houston last week, the Texans are an improved pass defense this season. Still in search of his first multiple-touchdown game of the year, Big Ben will need to,and probably will, step it up in this road matchup.
Point Projection: 16 points
14. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) at Chicago
For the first time in his career, Cam Newton didn’t set an NFL record. Still, he put up a respectable performance in a Carolina monsoon—while he managed just 158 yards and a score through the air, he added 27 rushing yards and a two-point conversion without registering a turnover. He has the athleticism and versatility to rack up points, even if he does it in a non-traditional way. The Bears have given up three-touchdown games to Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in back-to-back weeks, so while it’s hard to recommend a rookie going into Soldier Field, Newton’s shown the ability to overcome any matchup. Start him with confidence again in Week 4.
Point Projection: 16 points
15. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) vs. Pittsburgh
After a couple of “par” performances to start the season, Matt Schaub finally got loose in New Orleans to the tune of 373 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Pittsburgh’s formidable pass defense has hit its stride after a rocky opener in Baltimore—in the past two weeks Tarvaris Jackson and the Kerry Collins/Curtis Painter combination have totaled just 312 yards and no touchdowns. While Schaub and Andre Johnson present their toughest matchup to date, Pittsburgh has allowed multiple touchdown passes just once in their last 10 games. Still, Schaub should play a big enough role in this game to post low-end QB1, or high-end QB2 numbers.
Point Projection: 16 points
16. Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins) at St. Louis
Rex Grossman continued to prove that he’s a reliable fantasy QB2 in an ugly Monday night affair in Dallas. Through three games Grossman’s averaging 282 yards, and he’s thrown five touchdowns against three interceptions. St. Louis allowed a pair of touchdowns a piece to Michael Vick and Eli Manning in their first two games, and last week Joe Flacco exploded for a career-high 389 yards and three scores. Grossman isn’t likely to match those totals, however he should remain useful in Week 4.
Point Projection: 15 points
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