Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Ryan Boser
- Edited by Marc Caviglia
- Predictions are based on Staff Consensus

::RANKINGS UPDATED AS OF SEPTEMBER 25, 2011::

The early-season intrigue surrounding the quarterback position is off the chain. Cam Newton doubled down in Week 2, setting his second NFL record in as many weeks. While the box score wasn’t as clean as his debut, Newton became the first rookie to crack 400 yards in each of his first two NFL games. The Newton storyline has been so hot that it’s overshadowed Tom Brady, who continues to walk on water—through two weeks he’s totaled 940 yards and seven touchdowns, while topping 30 completions in each game.

Below the fold, Matthew Stafford has officially cemented himself as an every-week, matchup-proof fantasy starter. In Atlanta, Matt Ryan gave fellow quarterbacks a blueprint for beating Philadelphia’s new “Dream Team” secondary. Ryan Fitzpatrick continued his rapid ascension in a shootout with the Raiders, Michael Vick had a very unhappy homecoming and Tony Romo refused to let a fractured rib and punctured lung come between him and fantasy excellence in San Francisco.

After 14 quarterbacks topped 300 yards in Week 1, things tapered off a bit in Week 2 as just nine signal callers reached that mark. As we move into our Week 3 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings, we’ll attempt to determine which early-season box scores are trends, and which are mirages.

Standard Scoring

Pass TD: 4 points |  All Other TDs: 6 points
25 Passing Yards: 1 point |  All Turnovers: -2 points
10 Rushing Yards: 1 point |  10 Receiving Yards: 1 point

1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) at Buffalo

Tom Brady had nowhere to go but down after his 517-yard, four-touchdown effort in Week 1. And his production did slip… to just 423 yards and three touchdowns. How disappointing. In his last 13 regular season games, Brady’s thrown for 33 touchdowns and just one interception. That’s stupid-good. Brady threw for three scores in both meetings with Buffalo last season, but the matchup doesn’t matter. We’re witnessing arguably the best quarterbacking in NFL history on a weekly basis with this guy—enjoy.
Point Projection: 25 points

2. Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. New York Giants  **QUESTIONABLE - EXPECT TO START ON SUNDAY**

Everyone knew that investing a first round draft pick on Michael Vick was playing with fire, but nobody expected to get burned so soon. Despite three turnovers in Atlanta Sunday night, Vick was still well on his way to a very nice fantasy performance before he was concussed late in the third quarter. His status for Week 3 is still very much in question. If he’s cleared to play, he should be started as usual against a depleted Giants’ defense that he torched for 372 yards of offense and four touchdowns in his last meeting. Mike Kafka would likely get the start if Vick can’t go—fingers crossed, Vick owners.
Point Projection: 22 points

3. Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) at Minnesota

Matthew Stafford continues to justify his preseason hype. After going for 305 yards and three touchdowns in the opener, he upped the anti with 294 yards and four scores in Week 2. There’s no more disputing that he’s an elite-level fantasy option when healthy, and through two weeks… well, he’s still upright. The Vikings’ secondary is short talent, and the Lions have now amassed 75 points in two games, so they should continue to light up the scoreboard this week in Minnesota.
Point Projection: 22 points

4. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) vs. Houston

Green Bay and Chicago each boasted top-10 fantasy pass defenses last year, but in the first two weeks of the new season, Brees tallied three touchdowns against both of them. He’s now averaged 364 yards in his last three games, and as we stated last week, New Orleans’ passing game really doesn’t miss a beat without Marques Colston. Houston appears much-improved with the addition of Johnathan Joseph, but they’ve yet to be tested after facing Kerry Collins and Chad Henne. Brees should offer a correction in Houston’s early-season defensive success.
Point Projection: 21 points

5. Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) vs. Kansas City

After throwing for 335 yards and a pair of scores in the opener, Philip Rivers cranked it up a notch with 378 and two more in New England. Unfortunately, he’s also thrown two interceptions in both contests, after going the final 13 games of 2010 without multiple picks. The turnovers can probably be attributed to volume—Rivers has thrown the ball at least 40 times in both games this season, after hitting that mark just once in his last nine games of 2010. San Diego appears to be using the check down as an extension of the running game—Rivers has now connected with his backs for a ridiculous 30 receptions through two games. Kansas City has ceded four touchdowns to Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matthew Stafford in consecutive weeks, so Rivers makes for a phenomenal start this week.
Point Projection: 20 points

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6. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) at Chicago

Aaron Rodgers has now topped 300 yards in three straight games, including the Super Bowl, and he’s notched eight touchdowns without an interception in that same three-game span. This week he’ll face a Bears’ defense that he struggled against last season—in three games he threw two touchdowns, ran for two more but was intercepted four times. In short, this might be his toughest matchup of the year. Last week Drew Brees threw three touchdowns against Chicago’s tough pass defense, and Rodgers has been money in the bank early this season, so expect him to rise to the occasion in the divisional showdown despite his recent track record.
Point Projection: 20 points

7. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) vs. Jacksonville

Last week the fantasy community cast a skeptical eye on Cam Newton’s first-game rookie record of 422 yards against a lousy Cardinals pass defense. However, instead of coming back down to earth against a talented Packer secondary, he set his second NFL record in as many weeks, becoming the first rookie to top 400 yards (432) in his first two NFL games. While he threw three interceptions against just one touchdown, his 53 yards and a score on the ground more than offset his rookie mistakes. He’s now generated 925 yards of offense in just two weeks, making him a must-start against a Jacksonville defense that’s surrendered multiple scores to opposing quarterbacks in consecutive weeks.
Point Projection: 20 points

8. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) at New Orleans

Matt Schaub had a disappointing opener, and while his 230 yards Sunday were also underwhelming, he did throw for two scores in Miami. He’s connected on 72% of his passes through two games, so be patient—the big numbers are coming. Aaron Rodgers had his way with the Saints in the opener, and Jay Cutler managed 244 yards and a score against them last week. New Orleans shapes up as a neutral opponent, so there’s nothing scary about Schaub’s matchup here.
Point Projection: 19 points

9. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) vs. New England

Only three quarterbacks have thrown seven touchdowns in the first two weeks—Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and… Ryan Fitzpatrick? The bearded Harvard bookworm has been outstanding in the early going, out-producing the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers. While his 236-yard average is nothing to write home about, he’s turned the ball over just once in two games. Last week we speculated that Fitzpatrick’s upside was higher than we’d been giving him credit for, and Sunday he confirmed it. While Fitzpatrick threw five interceptions in two meetings with New England last year, the Patriots have ceded a combined 865 yards of offense to Chad Henne and Philip Rivers, and multiple scores to each. The Bills will need to throw to keep up, and Fitzpatrick is in line for another very nice outing.
Point Projection: 18 points

10. Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals) @ Seattle

Kevin Kolb has now thrown a pair of touchdowns in each of his two games as the Cardinals’ signal caller, averaging a crisp 280 yards per contest. Those benchmarks should be very attainable again this week against a horrid Seattle secondary. The Seahawks were a bottom-five fantasy pass defense last season, and last week Ben Roethlisberger threw for 298 yards on just 30 attempts. Seattle’s only managed one interception in their past six games, so Kolb has a high floor in this one.
Point Projection: 17 points

11. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) at Tampa Bay

After failing to throw a touchdown in Chicago Week 1, Matt Ryan looked like a risky play Sunday night against the Eagles’ outstanding group of cornerbacks. His 195 yards and two interceptions were predictable—his career-high four touchdown passes were not. With Roddy White and Julio Jones blanketed the entire game, Ryan turned to veteran Tony Gonzalez seven times for 83 yards and two scores. In his last three games against Tampa Bay, Ryan’s thrown five touchdowns, four interceptions and his high water mark was 235 yards. Despite that mundane recent track record, Matthew Stafford torched the Bucs in Week 1, and last week Tampa Bay almost made Donovan McNabb look respectable. Ryan should keep it going here.
Point Projection: 17 points

12. Tony Romo / Jon Kitna (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Washington    **GAME-TIME DECISION ON MONDAY NIGHT**

After coughing one up against the Jets in Week 1, Tony Romo atoned for his blunder by fighting through a fractured rib and punctured lung to lead the Cowboys to a come-from-behind overtime victory in San Francisco. Despite missing a decent chunk of action, Romo topped 340 yards and threw two touchdowns for his second consecutive game. While he hasn’t notched multiple scores in any of his past four meetings with the Redskins, Kevin Kolb managed 251 yards and two scores against Washington’s banged up secondary last week. If Romo is cleared to play (ribs and lung), consider that output his baseline in this one, despite the absence of Miles Austin and maybe Dez Bryant and Felix Jones.
Point Projection: 17 points For Romo   |  14 points For Kitna

13. Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins) at Dallas

Rex Grossman has been a punch line for most of his NFL career, but he might just get the last laugh. He’s started the last five games for Washington, and averaged over 287 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per contest. That’s good. Dallas’ troubled secondary has allowed multiple scores to both Mark Sanchez and Alex Smith this season, and in Week 15 of last year, Grossman torched the Cowboys for 322 yards and four touchdowns. Don’t shy away from Rex this week.
Point Projection: 16 points

14. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Indianapolis

After tossing seven interceptions in his last three games, Ben Roethlisberger played keep-away from Seattle last week, completing an efficient 22 of 30 attempts for 298 yards and a touchdown. He also battled back from an ugly second quarter hit to the knee, much to the relief of fantasy owners. Indianapolis has held both Matt Schaub and Colt McCoy to a single touchdown, primarily because the path of least resistance against the Colts is on the ground. The hope here is that Rashard Mendenhall will save some scraps for Roethlisberger and the passing game.
Point Projection: 16 points

15. Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) at Oakland

Mark Sanchez had another favorable matchup at home against the Jaguars Sunday, and while his two interceptions and paltry 182 passing yards were disappointing, he did tack on two touchdown passes and a career-high 29 rushing yards. Dating back to last postseason, Sanchez has now thrown at least two touchdowns in four straight games. The Nnamdi-less Oakland Raiders gave up over 300 yards to Kyle Orton in the opener, and three scores to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 2. Sanchez has a good chance to keep it going here.
Point Projection: 15 points

16. Matt Hasselbeck (Tennessee Titans) vs. Denver

While Matt Hasselbeck’s solid Week 1 box score felt a bit flukey, aided by an 80-yard catch-and-run shot put to Kenny Britt, his Week 2 performance was thoroughly impressive. Against a very tough Baltimore defense, Hasselbeck completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 358 yards, a score and an interception. He has a great chance to build on that effort at home this week against a vulnerable Denver defense. Champ Bailey looks like a long shot to return from a hamstring injury, and without him the Broncos gave up 332 yards and two touchdowns to soft-tossing rookie Andy Dalton Sunday. If you’re in a pinch, you could do worse than Hasselbeck.
Point Projection: 15 points