Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

—Written by Brad Berreman
—Edited by Marc Caviglia
—Predictions are based on Staff Consensus

::RANKINGS UPDATED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2011::

Week 17 will bring an end to yet another NFL regular season, and an official end to the fantasy football season for leagues that last through Week 17. Most of the defenses fantasy owners have relied on all season have favorable situations this week, but a couple teams that have nothing to gain from a victory this Sunday (Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans) may play a lot of backups so as to save their starters for the playoffs.
Some defensive units that have had ups and downs this season but look likely to finish 2011 strongly include the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins. That said, fantasy owners should not get creative if they have a sure-fire option available to them for Week 17.

Here’s a quick reminder of how to use the Bruno Boys Team Defense Star System to help you select a team defense for the critical week ahead.

BRUNO BOYS DEFENSIVE STAR SYSTEM

5-Stars (*****)- Bruno Boys Top Plays of the Week
4-Stars (****)- Bruno Boys Very Solid Plays of the Week
3-Stars (*** - Bruno Boys Average Plays of the Week
2-Stars (**)- Bruno Boys Try To Avoid Playing This Week
1-Star (*)- Bruno Boys Do Not Start Unless You Have To

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Cleveland)

The Steelers were able to shut out the St. Louis Rams in Week 16, and they have now allowed less than 10 points in four of their last five games. Week 17 brings another favorable matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who are 28th or worse in the league in rush offense (28th), scoring offense (30th) and total offense (29th) and managed just three points against Pittsburgh in Week 14. Seneca Wallace looks all but certain to start under center for Cleveland again this week in place of an injured Colt McCoy (concussion), but who is on the field or not for the Browns stands to have little impact on the Steelers defense on Sunday. Fantasy football owners should expect yet another shutdown effort from this unit in Week 17.
Bruno Boys Stars:*****

2. San Francisco 49ers (@ St. Louis)

San Francisco enters Week 17 as the highest-scoring fantasy defense in ESPN leagues, and they also are first in the NFL in scoring defense (13.5 points per game) and run defense (75 yards per game). The regular season finale brings a very favorable matchup against the St. Louis Rams, who are last in the league in scoring offense (11.1 points per game) and 31st in total offense (281.7 yards per game). The 49ers shutout the Rams in Week 13, as they also had four sacks and forced two turnovers in that game. The Rams look likely to have Kellen Clemens starting under center again on Sunday, so another excellent defensive effort looks to be coming. There is no reason for any fantasy football owner who has benefited from the performance of the 49ers’ defense up to this point to look anywhere else for a starting defense.
Bruno Boys Stars:*****

3. Baltimore Ravens (@ Cincinnati)

The Ravens, not too surprisingly, held the Cleveland Browns to seven offensive points and 256 offensive yards last week while registering two sacks and forcing one turnover in the game. A fairly favorable matchup is coming for Week 17 against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 24th in the league in total offense (318.8 yards per game) and sit in the bottom half of the NFL across the board offensively. Baltimore allowed 24 points and 483 yards of offense to Cincinnati in Week 11, but they did intercept quarterback Andy Dalton three times in the game. The Ravens have a chance to improve their playoff seed with a victory, so their veteran defensive leaders will certainly be motivated to perform well on Sunday. There are more favorable matchups out there this week, but the Baltimore defense should still be considered an upper echelon fantasy option in Week 17.
Bruno Boys Stars:*****

4. Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay)

Atlanta allowed 38 offensive points and 463 yards of offense to the New Orleans Saints in Week 16, as they struggled to keep one of the league’s best offenses under wraps. A much more favorable situation is coming this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have failed to score 20 points in five consecutive games and have only scored that many points once since their Week 8 bye. The Buccaneers have turned the ball over 36 times this season, which is tied for the most in the league, and the Falcons held them to 13 points and less than 300 yards of offense in Week 3 while also forcing two turnovers in the game. The Buccaneers were playing much better back then, so the Falcons may be able to produce even better results this week. Fantasy owners should consider this unit a top tier No.1 option for this week, and one with a lot of upside to boot.
Bruno Boys Stars:*****

5. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington)

The Eagles held the Dallas Cowboys to seven points and 238 offensive yards last week, as Cowboys’ quarterback Tony Romo suffered a hand injury very early in the game and did not return. Another good defensive effort looks likely in Week 17 against the Washington Redskins, who have improved offensively in recent weeks but have turned the ball over multiple times in every game since Week 1 this season. Back in Week 6, Philadelphia intercepted Redskins’ quarterback Rex Grossman four times and forced a switch to John Beck under center. Grossman has since regained the starting job, which has to be considered a favorable situation for the Eagles’ defense along with running back Roy Helu (toe, knee) being banged up. All signs point to another strong performance to end the season, so fantasy owners should employ the Eagles’ defense as an upper tier No.1 unit for Week 17.
Bruno Boys Stars:*****

6. Chicago Bears (@ Minnesota)

It was not a big surprise that the Bears struggled to contain the Green Bay Packers in Week 16, and they allowed 35 points while failing to force a turnover and sacking quarterback Aaron Rodgers just once. A much more favorable matchup is coming this week against the Minnesota Vikings, who will be without running back Adrian Peterson (knee) and quarterback Christian Ponder came out of last week’s game with a concussion. Ponder was able to practice fully on Wednesday and may be able to play Sunday as long as he passes all the required tests, but the fact his play has regressed in recent weeks favors the Chicago defense. Fantasy owners may be skeptical of this unit this week, and rightfully so given some recent bad performances, but the Bears’ defense can be deployed as a No.1 defense with very little downside for Week 17.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

7. New York Jets (@ Miami)

The Jets allowed 27 offensive points and 332 total yards to the New York Giants in Week 16, and they have now allowed 65 offensive points and over 750 yards of offense over their last two games. Week 17 brings an opportunity to rebound against the Miami Dolphins, who the Jets managed to hold to six points back in Week 6 along with three turnovers forced and four sacks in Dolphins’ quarterback Matt Moore’s first start of the season. Miami may be without running back Reggie Bush for Sunday’s game, as he suffered a knee injury in last week’s game and did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Bush has been the Dolphins’ best offensive threat lately, with 519 rushing yards over the last four games, so his absence would definitely benefit the Jets’ defense. Regardless of Bush’s playing status, fantasy football owners should again regard the Jets as a top tier starting option for Week 17.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

8. Miami Dolphins (vs. New York Jets)

Miami’s defense was able to shut out the New England Patriots for half of Week 16’s game, but ultimately allowed 400 yards of offense and 27 points to one of the NFL’s top offenses. Week 17 brings a much more favorable matchup with the New York Jets, who have allowed nine sacks and turned the ball over seven times in their past two games. Jets’ quarterback Mark Sanchez has struggled on the road this season, as he failed to top 200 passing yards four times, so playing host this Sunday looks to favor the Dolphins’ defense. When the two teams played in Week 6, the Jets scored 17 offensive points and had just 298 yards of offense, so it is definitely likely the Miami defense can perform similarly this Sunday. Fantasy football owners who do not have a top tier starting defense available to them this week should consider using the Dolphins’ defense as a one-week play with nice upside.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

9. Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee)

The Texans’ defense has been one of the surprises of the 2011 fantasy football season, as they enter the week as the fifth highest scoring defense in ESPN standard leagues (142 points) despite not topping seven points in four straight games. A Week 17 matchup brings an opportunity to rebound against the Tennessee Titans, who scored just seven points against Houston in Week 7 and the Texans forced two turnovers along with two sacks in the game. Just how much the Texans will play their starters with their playoff position locked is a question, but Tennessee is unlikely to score a lot of points in any scenario. There is some potential downside here, but fantasy owners who have used the Texans’ defense all season should continue to do so in Week 17.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

10. Seattle Seahawks (@ Arizona)

Seattle allowed 19 points to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, but failed to force a turnover and put up their lowest number of fantasy points since Week 9. They have a good chance to get back on track this week against the Arizona Cardinals, who are 25th in the NFL in scoring offense (19.3 points per game) and are no better than 17th in any yardage category. Back in Week 3, the Seahawks held the Cardinals to 10 points with three sacks and two turnovers forced in the game. The Seahawks defense has held six of their last seven opponents under 20 points and have forced multiple turnovers in five of those games as well. Fantasy football owners who are looking to take advantage of a matchup this week may want to take a look at the Seattle defense as a solid starting option that is just below the top-ranked options.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

11. Denver Broncos (vs. Kansas City)

The Broncos allowed 19 offensive points and 351 yards of offense in Week 16, giving them two straight games without forcing a turnover and they have posted double-digit fantasy points (ESPN scoring) just once in their last five games heading into Week 17 against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have not had a terrific offense this season, but quarterback Kyle Orton has performed well in his two starts for the Chiefs and should be plenty motivated to show the Broncos they made a mistake by waiving him earlier in the season. Regardless, this is a much more favorable matchup than the Denver defense has faced over the last couple weeks and they make for a solid low-end No.1 fantasy defense for Week 17.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

12. Kansas City Chiefs (@ Denver)

The Chiefs’ defense had another solid performance against the Oakland Raiders in Week 16, allowing 16 points and 308 yards of offense while also forcing two turnovers in the game. They have allowed 30 total points over their last two games, and will take on the Denver Broncos in Week 17 in what should be a favorable matchup. Back in Week 10, the Chiefs held the Broncos to 17 points and 313 yards of offense as Denver quarterback Tim Tebow completed just two of his eight pass attempts. Tebow is coming off arguably his worst game of the season last week against the Buffalo Bills, as he threw three interceptions when the Broncos fell behind in the game and were forced to throw a lot. Kansas City will certainly look to force Tebow to beat them through the air on Sunday, but if the Broncos are able to run the ball well there stands to be limited opportunities for turnovers. In any case the Broncos are unlikely to score a ton of points, so fantasy owners looking for a solid one-week play for Week 17 can consider plugging in the Kansas City defense.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

13. Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit)

Green Bay failed to take advantage of a favorable-looking matchup against the Chicago Bears in Week 16, as they allowed 441 yards of offense despite quarterback Josh McCown making his first start since 2007 and the Bears being down to third-stringer Kahlil Bell at tailback. Week 17 brings little hope for a rebound against the Detroit Lions, who are seventh in the league in total offense (384.1 yards per game) and also have the NFL’s fifth-best passing offense (287.5 yards per game). The Packers have clinched homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, so it is likely they will play a lot of backups after a certain point in Sunday’s game. It is likely to be hard for fantasy owners who have used the Green Bay defense all season to find a starting defense that is discernibly better for Week 17, but those that can should.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

14. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seattle)

Arizona allowed 23 points to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16 along with two forced turnovers and two sacks. That was the highest point total they have allowed in their past four games, but have only forced three turnovers in that span to put a ceiling on their fantasy point production. The Cardinals will get a fairly favorable matchup against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17, as Seattle ranks in the bottom part of the league overall offensively. Opposing defenses have averaged 9.5 fantasy points (tied for sixth-most in the league) against the Seahawks this season and Arizona had one of their best performances of the season in that regard with 11 fantasy points back in Week 3. The Arizona defense is nothing more than a mid-tier fantasy option for Week 17, with some upside in a favorable matchup.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

15. New York Giants (vs. Dallas)

The Giants had one of their best defensive performances of the season last week against the New York Jets, allowing 14 points while sacking quarterback Mark Sanchez five times and forcing three turnovers in the game. Week 17 brings a tough matchup against the Dallas Cowboys and the league’s ninth-ranked offense (380.5 yards per game), though quarterback Tony Romo’s status is up in the air after suffering an injury to his throwing hand last week. Romo practiced earlier in the week and looks on track to play Sunday night, but how effective he will be has to be a question at this point. If Jon Kitna or Stephen McGee starts in Romo’s place, the Giants’ defense can be bumped up these rankings a few spots. With what we know now, fantasy owners should consider them a low-end No.1 defense for Week 17.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

16. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago)

The Vikings allowed 26 points and nearly 400 offensive yards to the Washington Redskins in Week 16, but they did force two turnovers and even intercepted a pass for the first time since Week 5. Week 17 actually brings a favorable matchup against the Chicago Bears, who have struggled offensively since losing quarterback Jay Cutler and running back Matt Forte to injury and have turned the ball over 14 times in their last five games. Josh McCown will make his second straight start under center for Chicago on Sunday, as Cutler was officially declared out for the season earlier in the week. That clearly favors the Minnesota defense, but that is not enough to make them a surefire starting option for Week 17 given how they have performed all season.
Bruno Boys Stars:**