Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Rich Arleo
- Edited by Marc Caviglia
- Predictions are based on Staff Consensus

::RANKINGS UPDATED AS OF DECEMBER 28, 2011::

It’s been another crazy year in the NFL and while the fantasy football season ended for many in Week 16, some leagues extend into this week, and those still playing may go insane trying to pick a lineup. There are so many scenarios that can alter the workload for so many running backs, and owners are going to have to keep a close eye on the newswire all week and in some cases, may have to wait for the outcome of 1 p.m. games before starting players in 4 p.m. games or later.

That being said, let’s try to make some sense of the mess in our Fantasy Football Week 17 Running Back Rankings.

Standard Scoring

Pass TD: 4 points |  All Other TDs: 6 points
25 Passing Yards: 1 point |  All Turnovers: -2 points
10 Rushing Yards: 1 point |  10 Receiving Yards: 1 point

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1. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars) vs. Indianapolis

MJD ran for 103 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries and added six catches for 21 yards. This week, he will look to cap an excellent season against an Indianapolis Colts run defense that has given up 140.9 yards per game (YPG) and 19 touchdowns. In Week 10 against Indy, he ran for 114 yards and a touchdown, and it would be an absolute shock if he doesn’t at least match those numbers this week. The Jags are just playing for pride, and MJD is looking to exceed 1,500 yards rushing for the first time in his career. He already has a career-high 1,473 yards on the ground to go along with a very solid 370 receiving yards and 11 total touchdowns. His fantasy owners looking for a Week 17 championship are in great shape.
Point Projection: 21 points

2. Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens) @ Cincinnati    

The Ravens got a big win to remain in control of their own destiny largely thanks to Rice, who ran for 87 yards on 23 carries and led the Ravens through the air with three catches, 48 yards and a touchdown. If the Ravens win, they clinch the AFC North and first round bye, so they should be handing the ball to their biggest offensive threat early and often. A big game could put Rice over 2,000 total yards as he sits at 1,869 coming into the game. The Cincinnati Bengals are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry (YPC) and 96.9 YPG on the ground, but they have given up 12 rushing touchdowns and Rice can beat them through the air as well. Last time out against Cincy, Rice had 104 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries as well as 43 yards on five catches, so he’s beaten them before and he can certainly do it again.
Point Projection: 20 points

3. Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers) @ Oakland

Mathews ran for 58 yards on just 11 carries (5.3 YPC) but was limited because the Detroit Lions jumped out to a 24-0 lead and the Chargers had to abandon the run. The Chargers are out of playoff contention but could knock division rival Oakland out in Week 17, so look for them to go all out in the game. In Week 10 a hobbled Mathews ran for 34 yards on six carries against Oakland, but he is now healthy and has finished off the season on a tear, so he’s a very strong play this week. The Raiders are allowing 5.1 YPC and 135 YPG to opposing runners this season, so Mathews should have plenty of running room as long as he gets the opportunities and the defense doesn’t put them in a hole again.
Point Projection: 18 points

4. Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks) @ Arizona

Lynch put his streak of eight straight games with a touchdown on the line against a San Francisco run defense that had not allowed a score all season. It was Lynch who came out on top in this battle, scoring the first rushing touchdown of the year against the Niners and adding 107 yards on 21 carries to boot. This game was a test for Lynch and now everyone has to be a believer. He’ll go up against an Arizona Cardinals defense that has allowed 14 rushing scores this year, so keep the expectations high for Lynch once again this week.
Point Projection: 17 points

5. Felix Jones (Dallas Cowboys) @ New York Giants 

His hamstring, anf the fact the game was meaningless, limited him to 24 yards on four carries in Week 16, but he is expected to be 100 percent with the division on the line against the New York Giants in Week 17. Sammy Morris looked awful starting last week, so the Cowboys need Jones to step up and perform in a must-win for the team. Jones ran for 106 yards on 16 carries in Week 14 against the Giants, and if he can replicate that and add a touchdown to the mix fantasy owners and Cowboys fans alike would be thrilled. Expect Jones to see a ton of work, so hope his hammy can hold up. The ‘Boys made sure to keep him fresh for this game, and owners should start him as an RB1 this week.
Point Projection: 16 points

6. Willis McGahee (Denver Broncos) vs. Kansas City

McGahee ran for 64 yards on 15 carries (4.3 YPC) but was limited late in the game with the Broncos down big. He was effective but without scoring a touchdown, that yardage total isn’t going to make fantasy owners happy, especially against the Buffalo Bills. McGahee will get another soft run defense in Week 17. The Kansas City Chiefs have given up 14 rushing touchdowns this season and are allowing 126.4 YPG on the ground. McGahee wasn’t 100 percent last time out against the Chiefs and was held to 17 yards on four carries. He’s healthy this week and will look to feast on KC in a must-win game for the Broncos.
Point Projection: 16 points

7. CJ Spiller (Buffalo Bills) @ New England

Spiller got the job done once again for Buffalo, running for 111 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries (6.9 YPC) with 27 yards on two catches. It was his second straight big game and he has now proven that he can handle a full workload, at least for the time being. It’s going to be interesting to see what the Bills will do next year with Fred Jackson coming off surgery and on the last year of his contract. What matters now in fantasy circles is his matchup against the New England Patriots. The Pats are allowing 117.5 YPG on the ground and won’t pose a tougher test than his last two matchups. Start him with confidence.
Point Projection:  15 points

8. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) @ St. Louis

Gore ran for 83 yards and a score on 23 carries against Seattle in Week 16.  He had 13 receiving yards to total 96 yards, his highest from scrimmage since Week 9. He has also scored in three straight games. The Niners will be playing for a first-round bye so Gore should get his usual workload here against the St. Louis Rams. He had a disappointing 73 yards on 21 carries against them in Week 13, but the Rams have struggled against the run all year. They are allowing 154.5 YPG (most in the league) and have given up 15 rushing touchdowns. Start Gore as you normally would this week and hope for an outburst like we’ve seen from many backs when up against the Rams.
Point Projection: 14 points

9. LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Washington   **QUESTIONABLE - EXPECT TO PLAY ON SUNDAY**

After a fantastic year, McCoy had fantasy owners asking “E Tu, LeSean?” as he stabbed the many he led to championship games in the heart Sunday. Shady ran for just 35 yards on 13 carries with one 10-yard reception, by far his worst performance of the season and just the second game all year he finished without a touchdown. He left the game at one point with an ankle sprain and while he was able to return, the injury has to be a bit of a concern heading into Week 17. The Eagles were eliminated from playoff contention last week so will the team risk further injury to their franchise running back in a basically meaningless game against the Washington Redskins? Monitor his status throughout the week and while he’s expected to play, don’t be surprised if he is limited.
Point Projection: 14 points

10. Kahlil Bell (Chicago Bears) @ Minnesota

With Marion Barber out, Bell grabbed the bull by the horns and ran for 121 yards on 23 carries with 38 yards on four catches. He showed some flashes the previous game and was a smart fantasy start last week with Barber out. There’s no update on Barber’s Week 17 status, but ever since blowing the game against Denver a few weeks back he has seemingly fallen out of favor in Chicago. Expect Barber to be limited again and Bell to get the start against the Minnesota Vikings, who just gave up 132 rushing yards to Evan Royster in his first career start. Unless news pops up that Barber will play and start in Week 17, keep Bell in your lineups.
Point Projection: 14 points

**BEAT THE BRUNO BOYS $350 WEEK 17 FREE CONTEST -  TOP 20 PAID**

We’ve partnered with DraftStreet.com to provide our fans an opportunity to play WEEKLY salary cap fantasy football against the Bruno Boys Staff.  Through the first 16 weeks of the NFL season we have given away over $6,600 in cash prizes. This week, we are offering a $350 free roll in which the TOP 20 win prize money. Make sure to sign-up now for a chance to win money and take on the Bruno Boys… IT’S FREE!!

Please use this link to enter:  Week 17 $350 Contest  (click to register)

11. Toby Gerhart (Minnesota Vikings) vs. Chicago

After Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and MCL, Gerhart came in and picked up right where he left off with 109 yards on 11 carries. He has excelled as the starter this season and will get one last chance to prove his worth in Week 17 against the Chicago Bears. Da Bears have a stout run defense allowing just 97.5 YPG this season, so Gerhart will have his work cut out for him. Given his success this season, he should be started in all formats for Week 17.
Point Projection: 13 points

12. Ben Tate (Houston Texans) vs. Tennessee

Tate managed to lose a yard on six carries in his worst performance of the year against the Indianapolis Colts. Tate, however, has some upside this week. The Texans clinched everything they possibly can and have nothing to play for, so it wouldn’t be a surprised to see them give their workhorse Arian Foster extended rest and their backup Tate more work. Tate has excelled as a starter, and the Tennessee Titans are giving up 126.7 YPG on the ground this season. It would be nice to hear a definite word on whether Tate will get the start, but even so, his potential is through the roof this week if he gets the workload.
Point Projection: 13 points

13. Michael Bush (Oakland Raiders) vs. San Diego

Bush ran for 70 yards on 23 carries (3.0 YPC) and caught two passes for 24 yards. He’s slowed down a bit as the season progressed, and that’s likely due to this being the largest workload Bush has ever seen in his four-year career. There is some chatter that Darren McFadden could make his long-awaited return this week, and with the Raiders playing for a playoff spot and possible division title, it’s certainly a possibility. Bush owners will have to keep close tabs on McFadden’s status, but even if he does play Bush should still see some work given the way he’s run all season long. The San Diego Chargers are allowing 123.5 YPG on the ground this season, so if Bush gets the full workload he should have some running room and find success.
Point Projection: 13 points if McFadden’s out |  7 points if McFadden plays

14. Evan Royster (Washington Redskins) @ Philadelphia

With Roy Helu hurting, Royster got the start against Minnesota and ran for 132 yards on 19 carries. Is Royster talented, or is this just another in the long list of successful backs in Mike Shanahan’s system? Time will tell, but with Helu missing last week and no update on his status as of Tuesday, Royster could be in line for another start against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are so-so against the run so if Helu is out again, he’s a solid high-end flex option with RB2 potential for Week 17. If Helu plays, Royster would have to be considered a backup once again, but with Shanahan at the helm there is no telling what could happen.
Point Projection: 13 points if Helu out | 5 points if Helu plays

15. Ahmad Bradshaw (New York Giants) vs. Dallas

The Giants struggled to get the run game going against the New York Jets early, but Bradshaw managed to finish with 54 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries to help his fantasy owners out a great deal and help lead the Giants to victory. Bradshaw had 15 carries to Brandon Jacobs’ seven so it looks as though he has reclaimed the starting gig. He should get a ton of work with the NFC East on the line against Dallas in Week 17. Bradshaw sat the entire first half last time out against Dallas for violating a team rule and finished with just 12 yards on eight carries, but the Giants will be sure to have him out there right off the bat in this one.  The Dallas Cowboys are allowing just 98.6 YPG on the ground this year but have allowed some big plays at times, giving up nine runs of over 20 yards and three over 40. Start Bradshaw and hope he can get the job done in this must-win for the Giants.
Point Projection:13 points

16. Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans) @ Houston

Are there any Chris Johnson owners still playing for anything? He ran for just 56 yards on 15 carries in Week 17 to add on to the myriad of disappointing performances for CJ this year. He has run for just 134 yards on 41 carries (3.3 YPC) with no touchdowns the past three games, but if you somehow own him and are playing in a meaningful game this week, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The Titans need a win to stay alive in the playoff race and Johnson needs just 14 rushing yards to reach 1,000, so there will be plenty to play for this week. The Houston Texans have nothing to play for this week and will look to get as many of there starters as much rest as possible, but they won’t just roll over and die and are allowing just 96.7 YPG on the ground this year. He had just 18 yards on 10 carries against them in Week 7 and the Texans have a history of stuffing him, so while Houston may be looking ahead to next week, this still isn’t an automatic big game for CJ. All you can do is start him and cross your fingers.
Point Projection: 12 points

17. Shonn Greene (New York Jets) @ Miami

Greene ran for 58 yards on 14 carries (4.1 YPC) as he continues to be a victim of the system in New York. The Jets say they want a ground and pound offense but on Sunday, Mark Sanchez threw a career-high 59 passes. Greene was looking good too and the Jets weren’t down by more than 10 points until the final minutes of the fourth quarter, so it was odd to see them abandon the run against what has been a weak run stopping unit this year. Greene has played very well and run effectively in the second half of the season, but when the Jets don’t commit to him he suffers. The Miami Dolphins have one of the best run defenses in the league and are allowing just 3.6 YPC and 93.4 YPG (both good for No.3 in the NFL). The kind of work he gets in Week 17 is a toss-up, but considering he gets most of the carries he is still an OK play, just don’t rely on him as more than a high-end flex option this week.
Point Projection:  12 points

18. Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers) @ Cleveland

Mendy had one of his better games of the year against St. Louis, gaining 116 yards on 18 carries with a touchdown. It was just his second 100-yard rushing game this season, and owners have to remember it did come against the worst run defense in football. The Steelers are fighting for the division this week so they’ll deploy Mendy as usual. In Week 14 against Cleveland he gained 76 yards on 18 carries but didn’t score. He has run the ball at least 20 times just once all season and the Steelers roll with three backs, so while he isn’t an amazing play this week, the Browns are giving up 146.5 YPG on the ground this year. Start Mendy and hope he can exploit a weak defense.
Point Projection: 12 points

19. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers) @ New Orleans

D-Willy scored twice in Week 16 against Tampa Bay and gained 66 yards on only seven carries. He has six touchdowns in the last five games and has been one of the biggest surprises of the second half of the season.  He doesn’t get a ton of carries but he has been making the best of them lately. The New Orleans Saints are allowing 4.8 YPC to opposing backs and back in Week 5, Williams had his only 100-yard rushing game of the year against them, running for 115 yards and a score on nine carries. Given his play of late, he should be slotted into your flex spot.
Point Projection: 12 points

20. Michael Turner (Atlanta Falcons) vs. Tampa Bay

Turner was stuffed by New Orleans, running for 39 yards on 11 carries. He did have a surprising 36 yards on four catches, a season-high and a first since his rookie year, but he has put on a nice disappearing act for the last part of the season, scoring either seven fantasy points or less (standard scoring) in four of the last five games.  If the Detroit Lions win at 1 p.m., Turner will likely be rested since the Falcons will be locked into the No. 6 seed, but if the Lions lose they may play Turner to go for a win and avoid a possible first-round matchup with New Orleans. If the game gets out of hand, however, he would likely sit. You can’t expect an extended workload for Turner either way, but a Lions win could be the difference between 10-15 touches and no touches. The matchup against Tampa Bay is tasty, but last time out against them he had just 20 yards on 11 carries. He has disappointed with some other nice matchups this season as well, and given the circumstances you probably can’t trust Turner as more than a flex option.
Point Projection: 11 points if Detroit loses | 0 points if Detroit wins.