Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Kyle Smith
- Edited by Marc Caviglia
- Predictions are based on Staff Consensus

::RANKINGS UPDATED AS OF DECEMBER 24, 2011::

Week 15 was another interesting one for fantasy tight ends. A New England tight end had a huge game, but it wasn’t position scoring leader Rob Gronkowski. Instead, it was Aaron Hernandez who gave fantasy owners a lift with nine receptions for 129 yards and one touchdown. He even added a bonus fantasy point with a 16-yard rush. His 19 points didn’t lead the way however. Philly’s Brent Celek was the week’s top scorer with 21 fantasy points on 156 receiving yards and one touchdown. But even though 10 different tight ends had at least 70 receiving yards, only two other players at the position managed to accumulate double-digit fantasy points during the week, with Vernon Davis amassing 13 and Jimmy Graham compiling 11.

This week, there are numerous divisional games, meaning plenty of rematches that should give fantasy owners – and the writers that advise them – a better idea of which players will have big games. With that in mind, let’s move on to our rankings for Week 16.

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Standard Scoring

Pass TD: 4 points |  All Other TDs: 6 points
25 Passing Yards: 1 point |  All Turnovers: -2 points

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1. Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots) vs. Miami

The Denver Broncos’ defense clearly made Gronkowski a focal point last week, and it showed, as they held him to four receptions for 54 yards. It was the first time since Week 8 that Gronk failed to score, and the 54 yards he collected were his third-fewest of the season and lowest total since Week 5. Yet he remains atop our rankings this week against the Dolphins, a team he scorched for six catches, 86 yards and one touchdown back in Week 1. Gronkowski leads fantasy tight ends in scoring, with second-place Jimmy Graham more than 42 points behind him, and we don’t anticipate he’ll be held without a score for two consecutive weeks.
Point Projection: 16 points

2. Jermichael Finley (Green Bay Packers) vs. Chicago

With wide receiver Greg Jennings sidelined, it made sense that the Packers would make Finley a key cog in their passing game last week against the Chiefs. They certainly tried, as Aaron Rodgers targeted him 10 times, but Finley only latched on to three of those throws, gaining 83 yards in the process. Despite all the missed connections, it was still a nice game for Finley and his fantasy owners, and was the second time in three weeks that he compiled 80 or more yards. He has an exceptional match-up this week against the Bears, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points in the league to tight ends, and against whom Finley had seven catches for 85 yards and three touchdowns against back in Week 3.
Point Projection: 14 points

3. Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints) vs. Atlanta

Graham led the Saints with 10 targets last week in their win over the Vikings, but his 70 receiving yards weren’t a team-high. In fact, his yardage total wasn’t even second or third on the team. No, Graham was fourth among Saints pass-catchers in that statistic, but among his seven receptions was a touchdown, and that was enough to make fantasy owners plenty happy, despite the fact that he lost a fumble, costing those same owners two points. Nonetheless, he leads all tight ends in receptions, and is second behind Gronkowski in fantasy points at his position. This week he and the Saints have a rematch with division rival Atlanta, and when the two squads faced off in Week 10, Graham had what seems like a typical game for him – seven catches, 82 yards, one touchdown. Look for similar numbers from him this week.
Point Projection: 13 points

4. Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers) @ Detroit

The Chargers are doing what they seemingly always do, playing their best football as the season winds down. They ripped the Ravens on Sunday night, even with Gates having his worst statistical game of the season, mustering only 31 yards on a pair of catches. We figured he’d do a little more damage than that, even against a Ravens team that is among the league’s best at slowing tight ends, but it just didn’t happen. We do expect him to bounce back this week against the Lions, even though they have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends. Detroit did allow 89 yards to Jimmy Graham a couple weeks ago, and has given up at least eight fantasy points in two of their last three games, so they’re not invincible against tight ends, especially tight ends at the caliber of Gates.
Point Projection: 12 points

5. Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons) @ New Orleans

Atlanta scored 41 points last Thursday against the Jaguars, but it was ugly for Gonzalez and his fantasy owners. The number three fantasy scorer at his position had season-lows with one catch and 14 yards, and was only targeted twice. His lousy output broke a five-game string in which he had no fewer than five receptions or 69 receiving yards in any game, and could have shattered the title hopes of numerous fantasy owners. The good news for Gonzalez’s owners is that he and the Falcons fly to New Orleans this week to take on the Saints. When the two teams played back in Week 10, the aforementioned Graham wasn’t the only tight end who delivered solid numbers. Gonzalez did as well, with six catches for 71 yards and one touchdown.
Point Projection: 11 points

6. Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Philadelphia

Witten broke out of his mini-slump with 77 receiving yards on four receptions last week against the Buccaneers. He had not reached 50 yards in any of his previous three contests, and hasn’t had double-digit fantasy points since Week 11, but we firmly believe that will change this week against the Eagles, for a couple of reasons. First, he’s just plain due – Witten has gone four straight games without scoring a touchdown or amassing double-digit fantasy points, which is his longest streak of the season. History also comes into play here, because Witten has had at least 11 fantasy points against the Eagles once in each of the last four seasons, and he had just four catches for 28 yards the first time he played Philly back in Week 8.
Point Projection: 11 points

7. Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles) @ Dallas

Celek led all tight ends with 21 fantasy points last week on five catches, 156 yards and one touchdown against the Jets. The touchdown was his third of the season, and it was also the third time this year that he gained at least 75 receiving yards in a game. Celek’s match-up this week is enticing, as he faces a Cowboys team that has allowed the second-most receiving yards in the league to opposing tight ends, and against whom he had seven catches for 94 yards and a touchdown in Week 8. If you’ve had him on your bench recently, now is as good a time as any to get him in the lineup.
Point Projection: 10 points

8. Aaron Hernandez (New England Patriots) vs. Miami

Hernandez was the beneficiary of Denver’s decision to key in on fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski and the result was Hernandez having his best game of the season with nine catches (11 targets) for 129 yards and one touchdown, and one rush that resulted in 16 more yards. He has amassed 213 receiving yards over his last two games, helping vault him into fifth place at his position in fantasy scoring. Outside of last week’s contest, the only other game in which Hernandez has gained 100+ receiving yards is back in Week 1 against the Dolphins, who are the very same foe he’ll match up against this week.
Point Projection: 10 points

9. Dustin Keller (New York Jets) vs. New York Giants

Keller led the Jets 73 yards on three receptions last week in New York’s ugly loss to the Eagles. It was the most yards he’s accumulated since Week 3 this season, and certainly a positive sign heading into the game against the Giants. The G-Men have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points in the league to tight ends this season, and outside of last week have been downright hideous against opposing tight ends since Week 9. They’ve allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends in that time, and on three occasions tight ends have gained at least 100 yards when playing the Giants.
Point Projection: 9 points

10. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers) @ Seattle

Davis had one of his best all-around games of the season on Monday night against Pittsburgh. He was targeted 10 times, and snared six passes for 72 yards and a touchdown. It was a perfect time for him to reward the fantasy owners that stuck with him during a mostly mediocre season. If he continues to get a lot of looks from Alex Smith, the Seahawks shouldn’t be able to stand in his way this week. Davis had five catches for 47 yards against them in Week 1, and athletic tight ends like Tony Gonzalez, Fred Davis and Ed Dickson have given Seattle fits this season.
Point Projection: 8 points

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11. Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions) vs. San Diego

Pettigrew was targeted 11 times last week in Detroit’s come-from-behind win in Oakland, but his numbers were mediocre – five catches for 49 yards. But he does have 11 receptions and 106 yards in his last two games, not to mention a potentially beneficial match-up against San Diego. The Chargers haven’t surrendered a lot of catches or yards to opposing tight ends this year, but they are tied for the fourth-most touchdowns allowed to players at that position.
Point Projection: 6 points

12. Jared Cook (Tennessee Titans) vs. Jacksonville

Cook had the type of game last week that we’d only seen one other time this season, back in Week 4, when he had 93 yards and a touchdown. Granted, his numbers this week came in a loss to the previously winless Colts, but that matters little to fantasy owners. Cook grabbed a team-high nine pass (on 11 targets) for 103 yards in the game. Okay, he lost a fumble as well, costing him two fantasy points, but the point is that he’s capable of these types of games. We don’t expect a repeat performance this week, but he is playing Jacksonville, and only eight teams in the league have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than they have.
Point Projection: 6 points

13. Owen Daniels (Houston Texans) @ Indianapolis

Daniels had just 29 yards on a pair of receptions last week in Houston’s surprising loss to the Panthers. But he was targeted five times, and quarterback T.J. Yates seems comfortable throwing him the ball. Daniels is just one game removed from a 100-yard performance and is playing the Colts this week. Only one team in the NFL has given up more receptions to tight ends than the Colts, and only three teams have allowed more touchdowns to players at that position. Over Indianapolis’ last three games, they’ve given up either 100 yards or a touchdown (or both) to tight ends in each contest.
Point Projection: 5 points

14. Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Arizona

Gresham played the Rams last week, which meant he wasn’t going to do a whole lot because of the Rams’ odd propensity to shut down opposing tight ends. So Gresham could only come up with 16 yards on three catches, which was his second-worst statistical output of the season. He’ll face the Cardinals this week, and even though they’re no cakewalk (eighth-fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends on the year), he has a much better chance of doing something, because the Cardinals have allowed 50 or more yards to tight ends in half of their games this season.
Point Projection: 4 points

15. Ed Dickson (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Cleveland

Though Dickson had just 36 yards on three receptions last week against the Chargers, he managed to score his fourth touchdown of the season in the contest. Dickson remains just outside the top-10 at his position in targets, a stat that should be relevant this week against the Browns, who have struggled a bit against tight ends of late. Dickson had 47 yards against them in Week 13, and Cleveland has allowed tight ends to accumulate at least six fantasy points in four of their last five games, making Dickson a middle-of-the-pack fantasy option.
Point Projection: 4 points