Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Kyle Smith
- Edited by Marc Caviglia
- Predictions are based on Staff Consensus

::RANKINGS UPDATED AS OF DECEMBER 4, 2011::

After a two-game funk of fewer than 55 receiving yards in Weeks 8 and 9, Jimmy Graham has been dominant over his last two games, and last week against the Giants had 84 yards and two touchdowns, and has accumulated over 75 yards in each of his last two games. Dustin Keller had a big game last week as well, with a pair of touchdown catches that equaled his total coming into the contest. But not all was rosy in Week 12 for fantasy tight ends, as Brandon Pettigrew, Greg Olsen and Jermichael Finley each contributed three points or less for their fantasy owners.

The outlook for this week is bright however, as many upper-echelon tight ends have excellent match-ups. Let’s take a look ahead and see what’s in store in our Fantasy Football Week 13 Tight End Rankings.

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Standard Scoring

Pass TD: 4 points |  All Other TDs: 6 points
25 Passing Yards: 1 point |  All Turnovers: -2 points

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1. Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers) @ Jacksonville

Gates hasn’t been piling up yards, but he has done the one thing that fantasy owners covet the most –  score touchdowns. He caught his fourth touchdown pass of the season last week in San Diego’s loss to the Broncos, and it was his third score in four games. Gates had just 49 yards on six catches in the game, and hasn’t exceeded the 65-yard mark in his last three games, but we think that will change this week against Jacksonville. Only two teams in the league have allowed more receptions or fantasy points to tight ends than the Jaguars.
Point Projection: 16 points

2. Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints) vs. Detroit

As we mentioned in the introductory paragraph, Graham roasted the Giants on Monday night with 84 yards and two touchdowns to lead all tight ends in fantasy scoring for the week. He’s scored three times over his last two games and had more than 80 yards in each of those contests. Graham leads all tight ends in catches, receiving yards and targets, and trails only Rob Gronkowski in touchdown receptions. He faces the Lions this week, and while they have been superior to most other squads in containing opposing tight ends this year, Graham is in a different category because of the varied ways that New Orleans uses him, so the match-up is less of a concern than it might be for inferior players.
Point Projection: 16 points

3. Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots) vs. Indianapolis

Despite having just four passes thrown his way last week by Tom Brady, Gronkowski caught all of those passes for 59 yards and scored – again. It was his sixth touchdown in his last four games, and the first time in five games that he failed to record at least 90 receiving yards. Gronk leads all fantasy tight ends in scoring due in large part to his 11 touchdowns, but he’s also second at the position in receiving yards and catches. The Colts may have a new defensive coordinator this week, but that isn’t going to hamper Gronkowski in any way, shape or form.
Point Projection: 15 points

4. Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys) @ Arizona

Witten was relatively quiet on Thanksgiving Day, with four catches for 43 yards in the Cowboys’ win over the Dolphins. The most noteworthy thing he did in the game was probably run over a Dallas cheerleader, making him the envy of men across the nation. But maybe Witten’s mediocre day wasn’t shouldn’t have been as surprising as it was, because he has been streaky of late. Here are his fantasy point totals from Week 7 on: 9, 2, 13, 3, 14, 4. So if that streak continues, he’s due for a double-digit performance, right? Okay, that may not be solid logic, but it is reasonable to believe that he’ll get into double-digits against a Cardinals team that has not held down any of the top-tier tight ends that they’ve faced this season.
Point Projection: 13 points

5. Jermichael Finley (Green Bay Packers) @ New York Giants

Green Bay’s Thanksgiving Day win over the Lions was enticing for a number of reasons, but Finley’s performance wasn’t one of them. He had just 38 yards on two catches in the game, and marked the fifth time in his last six games that he failed to reach 50 receiving yards. He only has 36 receptions for the season, but his talent suggests that there is a lot more that fantasy owners could be getting out of him, and his opponent this week, the Giants, have been slaughtered by tight ends in their last four games. In case you’re interested (and if you’re reading this, you should be), here are the numbers for tight ends from Weeks 9-12 against New York: New England – 12 catches, 136 yards, two touchdowns; San Francisco – nine catches, 109 yards, one touchdown; Philadelphia – seven catches, 66 yards; New Orleans – five catches, 84 yards, two touchdowns.
Point Projection: 12 points

6. Fred Davis (Washington Redskins) vs. New York Jets

Davis’s touchdown reception last week in Washington’s win over Seattle was his first since Week 7 and third of the season. He had 58 yards on four catches in the contest, and has seen his yardage total rise in each of his past three games. Maybe it’s the fact that his ankle is better, or maybe it’s that Rex Grossman is back under center, but Davis is returning to the form that made him one of the better tight ends in the league at the beginning of the season. He plays the Jets this week, and while they have a reputation for defensive excellence, the fact is that only three teams in the league have allowed more receiving yards to tight ends than they have.
Point Projection: 11 points

7. Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles) @ Seattle

Celek was targeted six times last week in Philadelphia’s loss to the Patriots, which was fourth on the team, but his 75 receiving yards was the second-highest total on the squad. He hasn’t had fewer than 50 yards in any of his last four games, and is a good option this week against the Seahawks. Seattle has given up the fifth-most fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends, and in their last eight games has allowed at least 11 fantasy points to tight ends on five occasions.
Point Projection: 10 points

8. Jake Ballard (New York Giants) vs. Green Bay

Despite having somewhat limited production of late, we’re moving Ballard into our top-10 because we like his match-up with the Packers, and frankly we just think he’s due for a solid outing. He had only 47 yards on three receptions last week in New York’s loss to the Saints, and hasn’t amassed more than 50 yards in his last three games, but we’re talking about a guy who is 10th among all tight ends in receiving yards despite having fewer targets than the likes of Jared Cook and Visanthe Shiancoe. Also, New York is going to have to throw the ball to try and keep pace with the Packers, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points in the league to opposing tight ends.
Point Projection: 9 points

9. Aaron Hernandez (New England Patriots) vs. Indianapolis

Hernandez’s seven targets last week in New England’s win over the Eagles were actually three more than fellow Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski received, but once again it was Gronkowski who found the end zone instead of Hernandez. That has made all the difference in the world in their fantasy status, as Hernandez has gone three straight games without scoring while Gronkowski has caught at least one touchdown in four consecutive contests. Hernandez did have six receptions for 62 yards against Philly, and we think he’ll be in that same area once again this week versus Indianapolis.
Point Projection: 8 points

10. Kellen Winslow (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. Carolina

Winslow had 52 yards on five catches last week and was targeted seven times. His 89 targets this season are the second-most among tight ends, and he’s in the top-10 in both receptions and receiving yards. The problem is that he’s only scored twice, which severely hurts his fantasy value. But he plays the Panthers this week, and he has a nice history against them recently. In his last three games versus Carolina, he is averaging 72 yards per game and has one touchdown.
Point Projection: 7 points

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We’ve partnered with DraftStreet.com to provide our fans an opportunity to play WEEKLY salary cap fantasy football against the Bruno Boys Staff.  Through the first 12 weeks of the NFL season we have given away over $4,600 in cash prizes. This week, we are offering a $1,000 cash prize tournament in which you pay $11 entry fee and not only can you win up to $1,000 in prizes, if you beat Bruno Boys Allie we give you $5 back. The tournament is limited to the first 100 sign-ups and you can register up to three separate teams.

Please use this link to enter for a chance to beat Bruno Boys Allie:  Week 13 $1,000 Contest  (click to register)

11. Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons) @ Houston

Gonzalez produced a season-high nine receptions in Atlanta’s win over the Vikings last week, but none of those catches went for more than 18 yards, and he managed only 69 yards in the game. Still, he’s only had fewer than 55 yards on three occasions this year, and he’s also scored seven times, which is the third-most among all tight ends. But he faces the Texans this week in a very bad match-up. Only two teams have given up fewer fantasy points to tight ends this year than Houston, and just once have tight ends been able to accumulate at least 50 receiving yards. We’re not saying you should bench Gonzalez, but your expectations should be tempered somewhat.
Point Projection: 7 points

12. Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers) @ Tampa Bay

Olsen had just 24 yards on a trio of receptions last week in Carolina’s win over the helpless Colts. He’s fallen off a figurative cliff over his last three games, with exactly two fantasy points in each of those contests. But we’re not ready to pronounce him dead just yet, at least not this week against Tampa Bay. The Bucs have been burned by tight ends on a number of occasions this season, and have allowed at least seven fantasy points to the position four times in their last six games.
Point Projection: 7 points

13. Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions) @ New Orleans

Once again last week, Pettigrew got a lot of targets – eight – but once again, he failed to deliver much. He had four receptions, but only 27 yards in Detroit’s loss to the Packers, and hasn’t broken the 45-yard mark since Week 4. But Pettigrew remains a borderline fantasy starter because he is always involved (his 54 catches are fifth among tight ends), and because the Saints have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than all but six other NFL teams.
Point Projection: 6 points

14. Dustin Keller (New York Jets) @ Washington

Keller had his best game of the season last week in New York’s win over Buffalo, catching four passes for 61 yards and two touchdowns. Those touchdown catches doubled his total for the season, and they represented his first trip into the end zone since Week 2. Still, Keller hasn’t gained 65 or more yards since Week 3, and even though his match-up with the Redskins is a decent one, don’t overreact to one good outing and immediately insert him into your lineup if you have more reliable options.
Point Projection: 6 points

15. Scott Chandler (Buffalo Bills) vs. Tennessee

Chandler caught a season-high six passes and gained 50 yards last week in Buffalo’s loss to the Jets, and over the past two weeks he’s grabbed 11 passes for 121 yards. His new-found success as a receiver, combined with the fact that he has the fourth-most touchdown receptions among tight ends has made him a solid TE2. Chandler also has a good match-up this week with the Titans, who are tied for fifth in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season, and who have given up at least 50 yards to players at that position in every game from Week 4 on.
Point Projection: 5 points