Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

—Written by Brad Berreman
—Edited by Allie Fontana
—Predictions are based on Staff Consensus

Week 13 is the final week of the regular season in the majority of fantasy football leagues. Fortunately, many of the defenses that owners have relied on all season have favorable circumstances in this pivotal week. The Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears have very good matchups this week, while other options like the New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons and San Diego Chargers find themselves in the top tier of our rankings.

Here’s a quick reminder of how to use the Bruno Boys Team Defense Star System to help you select a team defense for the critical week ahead.

BRUNO BOYS DEFENSIVE STAR SYSTEM

5-Stars (*****)- Bruno Boys Top Plays of the Week
4-Stars (****)- Bruno Boys Very Solid Plays of the Week
3-Stars (*** - Bruno Boys Average Plays of the Week
2-Stars (**)- Bruno Boys Try To Avoid Playing This Week
1-Star (*)- Bruno Boys Do Not Start Unless You Have To

 

1.  Baltimore Ravens (@ Cleveland)

The Ravens held the San Francisco 49ers to six points in Week 12 and also sacked quarterback Alex Smith nine times during the game. They get another very favorable matchup in Week 13 against the Cleveland Browns, who are No. 28 in the league in total offense (295.9 yards per game) and No. 28 in scoring offense (15 points per game). Browns quarterback Colt McCoy is reportedly dealing with an elbow injury he suffered last week to go along with a previous injury to his throwing shoulder. Cleveland may have to run the ball well to move the chains, which isn’t an easy feat against Baltimore’s third-ranked run defense, which gives up an average of 91.5 yards per game on the ground. Even if Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis (toe) sits out again this week, fantasy owners should consider Baltimore’s defense one of the top options for Week 13.
Bruno Boys Stars:*****

2.  Chicago Bears (vs. Kansas City)

The Chicago Bears gave up 25 points to the Oakland Raiders last week, and while they forced just one turnover, they were stellar in the red zone. Carson Palmer and the Raiders were able to convert just one of six opportunities into a touchdown. The Bears will get a much easier matchup at home this weekend against the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City is in the bottom 10 of the league in total offense (No. 27), passing offense (No. 27) and scoring offense (No. 29). Moreover, head coach Todd Haley as said that Tyler Palko will start his third straight game. One-time Bear Kyle Orton was claimed off waivers by the Chiefs last week and could see action on Sunday. Whether Orton plays or he doesn’t shouldn’t make a big difference in the Bears defensive success. Chicago forced 15 turnovers in the four games prior to Week 12, and fantasy owners should consider this unit one of Week 13’s better options.
Bruno Boys Stars:*****

3. New England Patriots (vs. Indianapolis)

While the New England Patriots have failed to produce from a fantasy perspective this season the way they did last year, they’ve forced seven turnovers and totaled 35 fantasy points (ESPN scoring) in their last three games. They should easily be able to continue that recent success this week against the Indianapolis Colts, who have the NFL’s No. 31-ranked offense (280 yards per game). Dan Orlovsky will start under center in place of Curtis Painter. The Colts may be able to pile up some yardage through the air against a Patriots pass defense that gives up 307.5 yards per game and dead last in the league. That said, Indy will be hard-pressed to translate that into further success. The New England defense is becoming a worthy start for fantasy football owners once again, and their favorable Week 13 matchup enhances their starter status.
Bruno Boys Stars:*****

4. San Francisco 49ers (vs. St. Louis)

The San Francisco 49ers are first in the NFL against the run (75.5 yards per game) and they’ve yet to allow a rushing touchdown through 11 regular season games. They’ve also been an upper tier fantasy defense propelled largely by forcing multiple turnovers in all but two games in 2011. Week 13 brings a very favorable matchup against the St. Louis Rams, who are No. 31 in the league in scoring offense (12.7 points per game). Quarterback Sam Bradford has yet to throw multiple touchdowns in a game this season, and he apparently tweaked his ankle again. The Rams best offensive player is running back Steven Jackson, however he could be shut down or severely limited given how tough the San Francisco defense is against the run. Fantasy football owners who have relied upon this unit all season should start them with confidence again this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:*****

5.  New York Jets (@ Washington)

In recent weeks the New York Jets have underperformed based on their standards, having forced just one turnover and four sacks over their last three games. Week 13 brings a chance to rebound against the Washington Redskins, who have shown signs of life offensively since going back to Rex Grossman under center, but are still No. 27 in the league in scoring offense (16.6 points per game). Grossman has the potential to throw interceptions in bunches at any time, which is obviously good news for an already excellent Jets pass defense. Look for an aggressive defensive gameplan from Rex Ryan and company on Sunday. Fantasy owners should consider this unit a solid No. 1 option this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati)

The Pittsburgh Steelers held an anemic Kansas City Chiefs offense to nine points and 252 yards offense and also forced a season-high four turnovers in last week’s Sunday night contest. This week brings a more difficult matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that is mediocre in some areas of offense, yet sits No. 12 in the league in scoring offense, averaging 23.5 points per game. When the two teams met in Week 10, the Bengals put 17 points on the board and totaled 279 offensive yards. It was also the first game this season in which the Steelers forced multiple turnovers. Cincinnati running back Cedric Benson was held out of practice on Thursday due to a toe injury, which leaves his status for Sunday up in the air. Steelers’ safety Troy Polamalu is expected to play after sustaining a head injury early in the game against the Chiefs. With or without Polamalu, Pittsburgh is a No. 1 fantasy defense for Week 13.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

7. Dallas Cowboys (@ Arizona)

The Dallas Cowboys defense ranks in the top half of the league statistically this season, however they have given up a total of 43 points in their last two games to the Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins. Another less than stellar offense is on the slate for the Cowboys this week when the team takes on the 4-7 Arizona Cardinals.  The Cardinals are expected to have quarterback Kevin Kolb in the lineup after a slow-to-heal right turf toe and bruise foot sidelined him for four games. Regardless of who is under center for the Cardinals, Dallas will focus on containing running back Chris Wells, who is coming of a monster 228-yard effort last week, but is also dealing with a lingering knee issue. The return of cornerback Michael Jenkins (hamstring) will help the Cowboys secondary. Fantasy football owners start the Dallas defense with confidence this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

8. San Diego Chargers) @ Jacksonville)

Though they failed to force a turnover and only registered one sack, the San Diego Chargers had a good defensive performance in Week 12 against Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos. Week 13 brings a favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are last in the league in both total offense (250 yards per game) and scoring offense (12.5 points per game). While the Jaguars have only turned the ball over twice in their last three games, Luke McCown could step in for quarterback Blaine Gabbert at some point and that bodes well for the Chargers defense. Don’t expect the Jaguars to have much offensive success on Monday night. Fantasy football owners looking for a one-week play for Week 13 should have the San Diego defense at or near the top of their list. 
Bruno Boys Stars:****

9. Denver Broncos (@ Minnesota)

Tim Tebow has gotten most of the credit for the Denver Broncos recent stretch of success, however the defense has been stellar and more than contributed its fair share. The defense posted 42 fantasy points over their last four games and have moved up to the middle of the pack statistically. A favorable matchup is coming this Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings, who will likely be without running back Adrian Peterson (left ankle) for a second straight game. Although Denver linebacker and rookie sensation Von Miller’s status for the game is in doubt after thumb surgery earlier in the week, Minnesota’s offense does not have enough firepower to significantly challenge this unit. All in all, the Denver defense is a solid choice as a low-end No.1 defense with some upside in Week 13. If Peterson happens to suit up, they can be bumped down in these rankings a couple spots.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

10. Green Bay Packers (@ New York Giants)

Despite allowing 409 yards of offense, the Green Bay Packers held the division rival Detroit Lions to 15 points on Thanksgiving Day, They also intercepted Detroit quarterback Matt Stafford three times in the game. Week 13 brings another challenging matchup for the Packers, this time against the New York Giants. The G-Men have the league’s No. 4 ranked passing offense (291.5 yards per game) and should significantly challenge Green Bay’s No. 31-ranked pass defense (287.8 yards per game). Although the Packers allow a lot of yardage to their opponents, they have forced a league-high 25 turnovers, including 22 interceptions this season. Turnover potential alone is enough to make them a solid starting option for fantasy owners in this critical week.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

11. Atlanta Falcons (@ Houston)

The Atlanta Falcons currently sit No. 9 in the NFL in total defense (329.2 yards per game), including second in the league against the run (83.5 yards per game). Week 13 brings a tough test against the Houston Texans and the league’s third-best running attack (151.7 yards per game). Houston will have rookie third-stringer T.J. Yates under center after losing Matt Schaub and backup Matt Leinart to season-ending injuries. Atlanta can expect a conservative gameplan from the Texans on Sunday, which is not good news for a defense that has forced just three turnovers in their last four games. While there is not a ton of upside here for fantasy football owners, the potential to hold the Texans to a low point total is enough to make this unit a respectable starting choice in Week 13.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

12. Philadelphia Eagles (@ Seattle)-Thursday Night Football

Although the Philadelphia Eagles allowed 38 points and 457 yards of offense to the New England Patriots in Week 12, they had posted double-digit fantasy points (ESPN scoring) in four of their previous five games to rescue their fantasy value after a poor start to the season. The Eagles get a very favorable matchup this week against the Seattle Seahawks, who are No. 30 in the league in total offense (294.1 yards per game) and No. 26 in scoring offense (16.8 points per game). Unfortunately for the Seahawks, their best playmaker Sidney Rice (concussion) was placed on injured reserve this week. The Eagles could be without cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha, which might be of little consequence on Thursday night now that Rice is a nonfactor. Look for a rebound performance from the Philadelphia defense. If you need them, they’re a low-end No. 1 fantasy option this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

13. Houston Texans (vs. Atlanta)

In Week 12, the Houston Texans held the Jacksonville Jaguars to 13 points and 255 yards of offense, and they also had seven sacks in the game. While they’ve allowed less than 15 points in five straight games, Week 13 brings a much more difficult matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Not only does Atlanta’s offense rank in the top half of the league across the board, rookie wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) could be closer to full health than he has been in recent weeks. Houston’s overall defensive numbers, in real and fantasy football terms, may be skewed by some very favorable matchups over their last five games. While that’s not the case in Week 13, the Falcons aren’t the most explosive offense out there. Fantasy owners could still roll with the Texans defense without too much concern.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

14. Tennessee Titans (@ Buffalo)

The Tennessee Titans defense continued their up-and-down season with an “up” performance last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Titans forced a season-high five turnovers and allowed 17 points in the game. They will have a chance for another strong performance this week against the Buffalo Bills, a team that’s fallen on hard times after a great start. The recent loss of running back Fred Jackson (leg) has clearly hurt the Buffalo offense, as have mounting injuries along the offensive line. It has been hard for fantasy football owners to rely on the Titans defense. While they’ve delivered 16 or more fantasy points in three games this season, they’ve also had three games with one or zero fantasy points in their last six contests. Nevertheless, if you’re looking for a plug-and-play option for Week 13, Tennessee is a solid play.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

15. Cincinnati Bengals (@ Pittsburgh)

In Week 12, the Cincinnati Bengals gave up 20 points and 274 offensive yards to the Cleveland Browns. They also forced one turnover and had two sacks in the game. A more difficult matchup is on the horizon in Week 13, as the Bengals take on division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, who scored 24 points when the two teams met back in Week 10. Cincinnati failed to sack quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in that game, and they forced just one turnover as well. The loss of cornerback Leon Hall (Achilles) has clearly hampered the Bengals defense overall. If you can find a better option this week, then do it. However if roster space is an issue and you can’t stash them for favorable matchups in Weeks 15 and 16, then play them and keep your expectations in check.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

16. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Denver)

The Minnesota Vikings rank No. 9 in the NFL against the run (99.6 yards per game), however they are No. 29 against the pass (258.2 yards per game) and have not intercepted a pass in any of their last six games. Week 13 brings what looks to be a promising matchup against the Denver Broncos, who have basically installed an option offense with Tim Tebow under center. While that would seem to favor the Vikings defense and their injury-riddled secondary, Tebow has only thrown one interception in his six starts and he poses a big challenge as a runner. The Vikings have posted double-digit fantasy points once all season, and they’re not a good bet to reach that mark against Denver. Consider the Vikings a high-end No. 2 fantasy defense this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

17. Washington Redskins (vs. New York Jets)

The Washington Redskins had a solid defensive performance against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12, allowing 17 points and 250 yards of offense while registering two sacks in the game. They have not posted double-digit fantasy points since Week 4, but that could change this week against the New York Jets. New York’s quarterback Mark Sanchez has thrown at least one interception in all but two games this season, and prior to last week’s four touchdown performance, had thrown just two touchdown passes in his previous three games. Washington has 33 sacks this season (tied for third-most in the league) and has allowed only 13 touchdown passes as well. While their recent run of not-so stellar play limits the fantasy upside of this unit, fantasy owners looking for a fringe starting option could do worse than the Washington defense this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

18. Miami Dolphins (vs. Oakland)

The Miami Dolphins allowed 20 points and 303 yards of offense to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. They also intercepted Cowboys quarterback twice, their third straight game with multiple picks. Miami’s defense yielded 20 points or less in six straight games, and they get a shot at another good performance in Week 13 against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are dealing with injuries to two of their most dynamic wide receivers (Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford) and also will play without running back Darren McFadden (foot) again this week. Oakland might have trouble exploiting the Dolphins No. 24 ranked pass defense (248.1 yards per game) and they could have trouble running the ball too. While there is some potential upside with Miami’s defense this week, it’s not enough to make them a viable starting option.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

19. Kansas City Chiefs (@ Chicago)

The Kansas City Chiefs had a good defensive performance last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers limiting them to 13 points and 290 yards of offense while also forcing two turnovers in the game. On the surface, Week 13’s matchup against the Chicago Bears and quarterback Caleb Hanie looks very favorable, the Chiefs have only forced three turnovers in their last four games. It’s entirely possible that they won’t be able to take advantage of any mistakes that Hanie makes. Bears running back Matt Forte will pose a bigger challenge to Kansas City’s No. 26 ranked run defense (133.7 yards per game). Fantasy owners should continue to avoid this unit at all costs, despite any glimmer of potential upside this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

20. Oakland Raiders (@ Miami)

Although the Oakland Raiders have the league’s No. 27 ranked run defense (135.3 yards per game), they’ve forced 10 turnovers in their last three games and posted a total of 33 fantasy points (ESPN scoring) in that same span. Week 13 brings a matchup on the road with the Miami Dolphins, a team whose offense has improved in recent weeks, yet has been decidedly mediocre throughout the season. Miami quarterback Matt Moore has thrown just one interception over the last four games, therefore the Raiders may not get the turnover opportunities they’ve enjoyed lately. Moreover, Oakland has trouble stopping the run, so look for the ‘Phins to exploit Reggie Bush if possible. When all is said and done, there’s not enough upside for fantasy owners to start the Raiders defense this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

21. Carolina Panthers (@ Tampa Bay)

It came as no surprise that the Carolina Panthers had one of their best defensive performances of the season in Week 12 against the winless Indianapolis Colts. Although the Panthers have forced five turnovers over their last two games, things will now somewhat more difficult this Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman is reportedly dealing with a shoulder injury, which leaves his status up in the air. That said, running back LeGarrette Blount is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games and he will pose a major challenge to Carolina’s No. 28 ranked run defense (137.5 yards per game). Fantasy football owners should not reach this far for a starting defense unless you’re in a very deep league or desperate.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

22. Buffalo Bills (vs. Tennessee)

The Buffalo Bills have given up at least 27 points to opposing offenses in each of their last four games, and as you would expect, posted five or fewer fantasy points in all four games. Things may be a bit easier this week against the Tennessee Titans, who are No. 20 in the league in total offense (319.5 yards per game). That said, the Titans running game has been better lately with Chris Johnson going over 100 yards on the ground in two of the last three games. Buffalo ranks in the bottom half of the league across the board defensively, most notably No. 28 in scoring defense (25.5 points per game). Their impact in fantasy football this season has been driven completely by their ability to force turnovers, which has declined over the past month. Avoid the Bills defense in this crucial fantasy week.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

23. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Philadelphia)-Thursday Night Football

While the Seattle Seahawks allowed 23 points and 416 yards of offense to the Washington Redskins in Week 12, they also forced two turnovers and had one sack in the game. Seattle plays host to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13 and things should be decidedly more difficult against the NFL’s third-ranked offense (420.1 yards per game). Working in the Seahawks favor is the number of key injuries to Eagles’ starters. Quarterback Michael Vick (ribs) and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (shoulder, hamstring) have been declared out for Thursday night’s game, and running back LeSean McCoy (toe) is considered questionable. The Eagles still have plenty of talent to move the ball well against a Seahawks defense that is has been wildly inconsistent. Fantasy owners should have plenty of better options available this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

24. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. San Diego)

The Jacksonville Jaguars currently sit No. 4 in the NFL in total defense (292.5 yards per game), yet they’ve posted double-digit fantasy points (ESPN scoring) three times all season and forced multiple turnovers in just five games. They will take on the San Diego Chargers, owners of the league’s No. 7 ranked offense (386 yards per game) and No. 5 passing offense (276.1 yards per game) to this point in the season. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown a league-high 17 interceptions through 11 games, however last week’s outing versus the Denver Broncos was his first without a pick since Week 4. Aside from potential turnover opportunities, there’s little reason for fantasy owners to use the Jaguars this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

25. New Orleans Saints (vs. Detroit)

The New Orleans Saints are No. 25 in the league in total defense (370.8 yards per game) and No. 27 against the pass (253.7 yards per game). Week 13 brings a difficult matchup against the Detroit Lions, who have the league’s No. 6 ranked pass offense (272.5 yards per game). Lions quarterback Matt Stafford appears to be close to 100 percent after dealing with a finger injury in recent weeks. He’ll be throwing the ball plenty to keep up with the Drew Brees and the Saints high-powered offense. Stafford has thrown nine interceptions over his last three games, and that is good news for a turnover-driven defense like New Orleans. Let’s be real, though. Fantasy owners who would consider starting the Saints this week are taking a huge risk because a bad defensive performance could be especially damaging to fantasy playoff hopes.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

26. St. Louis Rams (@ San Francisco)

The St. Louis Rams have the NFL’s worst run defense (159 yards per game) so far this season, though they have forced five turnovers and posted 24 fantasy points (ESPN scoring) over their last two games. They face the San Francisco 49ers and the league’s No. 7 ranked running game (128.7 yards per game) and quarterback Alex Smith has thrown just five interceptions all year. After a poor start to the season, a recent stretch of favorable matchups have led to some solid performances from the Rams defense. Nevertheless they can expect a steady diet of 49ers running back Frank Gore this Sunday and minimal opportunity to take advantage of mistakes. While they may not yield a ton of points and yards this week, the St. Louis defense lacks the upside to be worth even a desperation play in Week 13.
Bruno Boys Stars:*

27. New York Giants (vs. Green Bay)

The New York Giants allowed 49 points and 577 yards of offense to the New Orleans Saints in Week 12, as they rarely even pressured quarterback Drew Brees and failed to force a turnover in the game. Things will not get any easier this week, as the Green Bay Packers and the league’s top scoring offense (34.7 points per game) come to town. Defensive end Osi Umenyiora suffered an injured ankle in last week’s game, and his status for Sunday is doubtful. His absence would obviously hurt the Giants pass rush, and that may be their only hope to contain the Packers offense. Fantasy owners should stay far away from this unit in Week 13.
Bruno Boys Stars:*

28. Cleveland Browns (vs. Baltimore)

The Cleveland Browns are No. 6 in the NFL in total defense (313.4 yards per game) and they rank No. 1 against the pass (174.7 yards per game), much of which can be chalked up to facing some dismal offenses. Cleveland has forced multiple turnovers twice in their past eight games. This week brings a challenge against the Baltimore Ravens, who are scoring 24.7 points per game (No. 7 in the league). Ravens running back Ray Rice should have a lot of success against the Browns No. 29 ranked run defense (138.6 yards per game) and should be the focal point of their offensive gameplan. It won’t be hard to find a better starting option than Cleveland this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:*

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Carolina)

Tampa Bay sits No. 31 in total defense (394.6 yards per game), No. 30 against the run (139.7 yards per game) and No. 29 in scoring defense (26.5 points per game). It doesn’t get much better in Week 13 when the Bucs face a difficult matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Carolina possesses the NFL’s No. 5 ranked offense (398.7 yards per game) and No. 6 best running game (135.3 yards per game). While the Buccaneers forced four turnovers last week against the Tennessee Titans, they have largely struggled when facing the league’s better offenses. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has thrown 14 interceptions this season, so there is a small window of opportunity in that regard. On the whole however, the reasons to keep this defense on the waiver wire far exceed any shred of potential upside.
Bruno Boys Stars:*

30. Detroit Lions (@New Orleans)

The Detroit Lions allowed 27 points and 349 yards of offense to the Green Bay Packers in Week 12. In fact, Detroit has given up 62 offensive points over their last two games heading into Sunday’s matchup with the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have the league’s top ranked offense (449.6 yards per game) as well as the second-best scoring offense (32.9 points per game). Adding to Detroit’s woes will be the absence of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who has been suspended for two games for an on-field incident on Thanksgiving Day. Injuries in their secondary will likely hamper Detroit’s ability to contain the Saints high octane passing attack. Look elsewhere for a team defense fantasy owners!
Bruno Boys Stars:*

31. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Dallas)

The Arizona Cardinals rank No. 20 or worse across the board defensively in terms of yardage and scoring, and without rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson’s four punt return touchdowns, they would have just one double-digit fantasy point outing (ESPN scoring) all season. They play host to the Dallas Cowboys and the league’s No. 6 best offense (390.1 yards per game) this week, so things will not be any easier. While the Cardinals defense can be useful for fantasy football owners in favorable matchups, Week 13 is not one of those occasions.
Bruno Boys Stars:*

32. Indianapolis Colts (@ New England)

The Indianapolis Colts are No. 29 in the league in total defense (389.4 yards per game and last in scoring defense (29.7 points per game). As you can imagine, they are a poor fantasy defense made worse by the fact that they haven’t forced multiple turnovers since Week 3. The Colts face a tough matchup on the road against the New England Patriots, who are No. 2 in the league in total offense (429.5 yards per game) and No. 3 in scoring offense (30.1 points per game). The Colts’ ineptitude on offense leads to this unit being on the field a lot, and that is not a recipe for success against an offense like New England’s. Fantasy owners can safely ignore the Indianapolis defense this week and every week.
Bruno Boys Stars:*