Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Ryan Boser
- Edited by Marc Caviglia
- Predictions are based on Staff Consensus

::RANKINGS UPDATED AS OF NOVEMBER 12, 2011::

Last week boasted several impressive efforts by fantasy football signal callers, and was highlighted by a pair of high-profile quarterback duels. In a surprisingly low-scoring affair between Tom Brady’s New England Patriots and Eli Manning’s New York Giants, Manning channeled his Super Bowl XLII heroics, and this time fantasy owners got to share in the celebration. In San Diego, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers blew the lid off of Qualcomm Stadium, combining for 632 yards and eight touchdown passes.

The fantasy goodness didn’t end there. Tim Tebow was at his quirky best, and Matt Ryan took full advantage of Julio Jones’ freakish ability. Former Bengal Carson Palmer had a huge day in his first start with the Oakland Raiders, and new Bengal Andy Dalton turned in his finest professional performance, taking his tigers to 6-2. Finally, in the most stunning development of the day, Matt Moore bore a striking resemblance to an NFL quarterback.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Matt Schaub edged out Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick to take home fantasy goat (dis)honors.

With no byes scheduled for this week, the full slate of games gives us extra options in our Week 10 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings.

Standard Scoring

Pass TD: 4 points |  All Other TDs: 6 points
25 Passing Yards: 1 point |  All Turnovers: -2 points
10 Rushing Yards: 1 point |  10 Receiving Yards: 1 point

1. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) vs. Minnesota

Through eight games, Aaron Rodgers has treated us to arguably the greatest stretch of quarterbacking in NFL history. Last week in San Diego he added to his own record, as his quarterback rating topped 110 for his ninth straight game (including the Super Bowl). He’s simply flawless—the blueprint for the perfect NFL signal caller. Against the Chargers, Rodgers connected on 21-of-26 passes for a season-low 247 yards, which he more than made up for with four touchdowns and 52 rushing yards. He’s dipped below three touchdown passes just once all season, against the Falcons in Week 5, when he threw for “just” 396 yards and two scores. Minnesota is a very beatable defense, but there’s no point in even breaking down the matchup. This is Aaron Rodgers’ world, the rest of us are just living in it.
Point Projection: 26 points

2. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) vs. Tennessee

Cam Newton comes out of his bye on pace for 4,787 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 638 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns and unanimous Rookie of the Year honors. While he’s scored seven rushing touchdowns in eight games, he’s been even more impressive with his arm in his last two games, completing 40 of 58 passes (69%) for 546 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Tennessee is a middle-of-the-road fantasy pass defense that just ceded three touchdowns to another rookie in Andy Dalton. Newton should pick up right where he left off.
Point Projection: 22 points

3. Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Arizona

Michael Vick completed just 21-of-38 passes for 213 yards and one interception in Philadelphia’s Monday night home loss to the Bears. Moreover, he managed just 34 scoreless rushing yards, which is well below his 57-yard average. The key to Vick’s depressed fantasy value this season has been his lack of rushing scores. He found pay dirt nine times in 12 games last season, but he has yet to cross the stripe through eight games this year. Still, Vick’s an elite-level talent with a bevvy of explosive playmakers, so he carries as much weekly upside as any quarterback in the league. Arizona’s bottom-third fantasy pass defense has shut down the dregs of the league, but top-tier signal callers have had their way with the Cardinals. Vick should bounce back nicely in Week 10.
Point Projection: 22 points

4. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) @ Atlanta

Drew Brees threw for a season-low 269 passing yards in Week 9 against the lowly Rams, and in Week 10 he set the bar even lower with just 258 against the Bucs. Clearly, we’re nitpicking here, but it’s worth noting that in his two-game mini slump Brees has totaled just three touchdown passes against three interceptions. Expect him to get back to his elite-level production this week against the below-average fantasy pass defense of the Falcons. In his last nine games against the Falcons, Brees has averaged 313 passing yards and 2.25 touchdowns per game. Those kind of numbers sustained over a long period of time bode very well for Brees this week.
Point Projection: 22 points

5. Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) vs. Oakland  **THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL**

A meeting with Aaron Rodgers and the charitable Green Bay pass defense was just what the doctor ordered for Philip Rivers. While Rivers was on track for another lousy fantasy performance well into the third quarter, he was so successful in garbage time that San Diego nearly pulled out a victory. At the end of the day, Rivers had gone 26-of-46 for 385 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. All three marks were season highs, but despite the monster fantasy numbers, it was a brutally ugly performance. Still, Oakland ranks in the bottom ten in defending opposing fantasy quarterbacks, so Rivers should fill up the box score again this week. 
Point Projection: 19 points

6. Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) @ Chicago

Matthew Stafford used the bye week to rest his ailing ankle, and he’ll return to the gridiron fresh off a three-touchdown performance in Week 8. Stafford’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in nine of his past 10 games, including his 219-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Bears in Week 5. Chicago’s aging defense has been well below average against opposing fantasy signal callers this season, and they have no answer for Calvin Johnson, so Stafford steps right back into must-start status. 
Point Projection: 19 points

7. Eli Manning (New York Giants) @ San Francisco

Eli Manning has taken his game to an all new level this season. Last week he bested Tom Brady and the Patriots, throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns (including the game-winner to tight end Jake Ballard with 15 seconds remaining). He’s averaging 297 passing yards per contest, and he’s connected on multiple touchdown passes in six of his past seven games. San Francisco sports a dominant run defense, but they can be thrown on. They rank towards the middle of the pack amongst fantasy pass defenses, and they’ve struggled against top competition (Tony Romo, Michael Vick and Matthew Stafford all managed at least 300 yards of offense and multiple touchdowns). Eli Manning’s play certainly qualifies him as “top competition,” and should be in lineups again this week.
Point Projection: 18 points

8. Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) vs. New Orleans

Last week in this space, we talked about Matt Ryan’s fantastic opportunity to kick-start his disappointing season against a vulnerable Colts’ secondary. He did us proud. Ryan racked up 275 yards and three touchdowns, including scoring strikes of 50 and 80 yards to Julio Jones. It was his Ryan’s first game with multiple touchdown passes in his past six contests, and he’ll look to stay hot this week against the division rival Saints. New Orleans has struggled mightily against above-average quarterbacks, and could be without cornerback Tracy Porter, so we could be in line for some NFC South fireworks. 
Point Projection: 18 points

9. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Buffalo

One week Tony Romo looks like an elite fantasy quarterback. The next, he’s delivering ordinary fantasy production while resembling a circus sideshow. Last week against Seattle he was closer to the former than the latter, throwing for 279 yards and a pair of scores (he was a foot away from a third, as Dez Bryant fumbled going into the endzone). Romo will almost certainly be without Miles Austin this week, but fill-in Laurent Robinson is a very underrated talent. While Buffalo is a below-average fantasy pass defense on paper, over the past three weeks they’ve surrendered just one touchdown pass against three interceptions. Still, you’re sticking with Romo despite Buffalo’s improved pass defense.
Point Projection: 18 points

10. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) @ New York Jets

Tom Brady’s otherworldly three-game start to the season is a distant memory. Brady’s becoming a victim of his own greatness, as fantasy owners have grown disgruntled with his good-not-great numbers over New England’s last five games. Last week against the Giants Brady turned the ball over three times, but his 342 passing yards and two touchdowns still made for a nice fantasy day. Despite all the negativity, he’s still thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season. Unfortunately, that one blemish came against this week’s opponent, when he threw for 321 yards, one touchdown and one interception against the Jets in Week 5. Only two quarterbacks have topped 200 passing yards against the Jets’ No. 1 fantasy pass defense all season, and only one (Tony Romo, way back in Week 1) has thrown multiple touchdown passes. Everything’s trending the wrong way for Brady in this one.
Point Projection: 17 points

11. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) @ Cincinnati

After throwing for 330 yards against Baltimore, Ben Roethlisberger has firmly entrenched himself as a low-level fantasy QB1. He’s averaged 352 yards and two touchdowns over his past three games, so while Cincinnati’s No. 6 fantasy pass defense represents a formidable opponent, you’d have to have an elite option to consider benching the red-hot Big Ben at this point. His talented trio of speedy young pass catchers (Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders) are blossoming before our very eyes, and Leon Hall can’t cover them all.
Point Projection: 17 points

12. Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos) @ Kansas City

Although Tim Tebow has failed to complete even 50% of his passes in five straight games, his running abilities have more than compensated for his aerial shortcomings. In three 2011 starts, he’s averaged 152 passing yards and 80 rushing yards. In those same three starts he’s thrown five touchdown passes and turned the ball over just twice. Those eight extra points per game accumulated on the ground are making all the difference—he’s essentially a fantasy RB2 and a fantasy QB2 all rolled into one. Kansas City’s middling fantasy pass defense just gave up three touchdowns to Matt Moore, so Tebow shapes up as a low-end fantasy QB1 with elite-level upside. 
Point Projection: 16 points

13. Matt Schaub (Houston Texans) @ Tampa Bay

In Week 9, Matt Schaub notched his first rushing score in his past 47 games. In Week 10, he did it again. Unfortunately, his 119 scoreless passing yards against the Browns marked his lowest total in his past 24 outings, and he added an interception to boot. Will this be the week Andre Johnson returns to bail out Schaub’s fantasy owners? Don’t expect an answer until late in the week. There’s certainly nothing scary about a matchup with the ordinary fantasy pass defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so be sure to send Johnson your positive vibes this week.
Point Projection: 16 points

14. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) @ Dallas

A matchup with the top-rated Jets’ fantasy pass defense made Ryan Fitzpatrick an obvious “bench” guy last week, and anyone who dared to defy logic probably deserved the 191 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions that Fitzpatrick gave them. There’s not much to worry about here—the Jets to this to everybody. Prior to last week Fitzpatrick had topped 240 passing yards and notched a pair of scores in each of his past two games, and Dallas’ middling pass defense should allow him to get back on track. The Cowboys have been exposed by every legitimate starting quarterback they’ve faced, and despite his recent speed bump, Fitzpatrick is the real deal.
Point Projection: 16 points

15. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) @ Seattle

Joe Flacco’s getting it done in the yardage department, but he’s not closing the deal in the touchdown column. He’s now topped 300 yards in three of his past four games. However, he’s totaled just two touchdown passes and four interceptions in his past five contests. Although Seattle ranks in the top third of fantasy pass defenses, their lofty ranking is a product of a soft schedule—they can be beat through the air. Still, Flacco’s been one of the most unpredictable fantasy quarterbacks this season on a week-to-week basis, so you never know what you’re signing up for.
Point Projection: 15 points

16. Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) vs. New England

Mark Sanchez’ 230 passing yards against the Bills marked his highest total in his last five games. That’s a bad thing. He offset his lone touchdown pass with an interception and a lost fumble—also a bad thing. This week Sanchez plays the Patriots. Wait, that’s a good thing! Sanchez threw a pair of touchdowns against New England in Week 5, and the Patriots’ No. 32 fantasy pass defense has ceded at least 330 yards from scrimmage or multiple touchdowns to every opposing quarterback this season. Sanchez is a hard guy for fantasy owners to trust, but the matchup warrants starting consideration.
Point Projection: 15 points