Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Written by: Jimbo Jones
Staff Contributor: Marc Caviglia
Edited by: Allie Fontana

Welcome to the 2011 Fantasy Football Roundtable Part II: Week 17 Predictions featuring Who’ll Have the Better Fantasy Week?, Who Would You Rather Start? and Over/Under predictions about fantasy-relevant players by Bruno Boys staff writer Jimbo Jones and owner/co-founder Marc Caviglia. Please note that the opinions expressed in this article are Jimbo Jones’ and Marc Caviglia’s—they may or may not be in agreement with the official position of Bruno Boys Fantasy Football. Our goal is to provide readers with additional insights and perspectives on hot topics in fantasy football as well as the week’s most talked about players.

 

Who’ll Have the Better Fantasy Week?

RB Kahlil Bell (Chicago Bears) or RB Toby Gerhart (Minnesota Vikings)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Toby Gerhart. The Stanford product has really been pretty solid since he filled in for Adrian Peterson after the star running back sustained an ankle injury. He even outscored AP over the last two weeks. Toby Gerhart has a tougher matchup on paper than Chicago’s Kahlil Bell, who ran well last week against Green Bay, however the Minnesota Vikings will win this game and they’ll do it by using Gerhart to eat up the clock. 

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Kahlil Bell. Both of these backups have played well since taking over as the lead back in their respective offenses. That said, I like Kahlil Bell over Toby Gerhart because of the expected volume. Look for Bell to touch the football close to 25 times this week and to finish with over 100 yards of total offense. Bell is this year’s waiver wire pickup of the fantasy football playoffs.

QB Eli Manning (New York Giants) or QB Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Eli Manning. There isn’t much for the Detroit Lions to play for, while Eli Manning and the New York Giants have their season on the line. The Giants-Cowboys matchups are always high-scoring affairs. Take the quarterback with the big matchup and everything to play for.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Matthew Stafford. This might be a bit against the grain because Eli Manning is playing for a division title, while Matthew Stafford is playing for a better seed in the playoffs. I’ll put my money on this season’s breakout star.  Stafford has nine touchdowns against zero interceptions during the fantasy playoffs and look for him to build on his impressive season against the Green Bay Packers and their lackluster pass defense.

 

WR Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers) or WR Stevie Johnson (Buffalo Bills)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Steve Smith. Steve Smith is the much more talented receiver and he has the rookie of the year throwing him the ball. Stevie Johnson is fine to have in your lineup this week, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is nowhere near the caliber of Cam Newton. Newton and Smith should hook up again this week.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Stevie Johnson. While I wouldn’t be surprised if both receivers finish in the top-10 at the position this week, Stevie Johnson has a true matchup to exploit against the New England Patriots. When Ryan Fitzpatrick airs it out on Sunday, it will likely be to his go-to guy, Johnson.  He had eight receptions for 94 receiving yards and a score earlier in the year against the Patriots and I could him putting up similar numbers in Week 17.

 

RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers) or RB Michael Bush (Oakland Raiders)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Ryan Mathews. As much as I like the Oakland Raiders to win this game, Michael Bush hasn’t been as good as he was when Darren McFadden first got hurt. Ryan Mathews has had a great bounce-back season from 2010 and he’s clearly the bigger playmaker. While he will probably get fewer carries than Bush, he has the better chance to rip off a big play.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Ryan Mathews.  I like both options but the matchup is a lot better for Ryan Mathews and with Mike Tolbert not practicing on Thursday, it looks like he could be in line for a big workload.  Expect at least 100 yards and a touchdown from the second-year running back out of Fresno State as the San Diego Chargers try to upend the Oakland Raiders and eliminate them from the playoffs.

 

TE Jared Cook (Tennessee Titans) or TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Brandon Pettigrew. Jared Cook has been a disappointment in 2011. He did not exceed expectations. Last week’s touchdown was a fluky play on broken coverage. Brandon Pettigrew has been a trusted target of Matthew Stafford all season. Although I don’t know how long the Detroit Lions will play their starters this week, Pettigrew has a better chance to score, even in limited playing time.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Jared Cook. On paper the matchup is better for Brandon Pettigrew, however it’s tough for me to go against a guy who has hauled in 17 receptions for 272 yards and a touchdown over the last two games. Look for Jared Cook to once again be a primary target for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and for him to put together his third straight solid showing of the 2011 season.

 

Who Would You Rather Start?

QB Matt Moore (Miami Dolphins) or QB Mark Sanchez (New York Jets)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones— Mark Sanchez. Matt Moore had a hot streak for a few games, and Mark Sanchez has underachieved again in 2011. I like Sanchez more in this game because Moore will be going against Darrelle Revis. The Miami Dolphins secondary is not that threatening. Sanchez should be able to rack up a couple scores, even if the yardage isn’t there.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Mark Sanchez. Neither are ideal plays with your season on the line, however Mark Sanchez has the better matchup and a better set of playmakers to support him. Matt Moore will suffer from the loss of Reggie Bush on Sunday and Sanchez should do just enough to flirt with being a low-end QB1 option in a must win game for the New York Jets.

 

WR Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys) or WR Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Miles Austin. Without a doubt, Miles Austin is the best receiver that the Dallas Cowboys have. He and Tony Romo have been on fire when both are healthy this season. If Dallas is going to beat the New York Giants this week, there’s a good chance that Romo and Austin will connect for at least one touchdown.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Hakeem Nicks. This one is too close to project, as I rank both of them similarly and feel they are in line for around 80 receiving yards and a potential touchdown. Since I have to make a call, I’ll go with Nicks because he had the bigger game earlier this year. Nicks has been impressive over the last four weeks and I don’t see anyone in the Dallas Cowboys secondary being able to match up with him.

 

RB Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oakland Raiders) or WR Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Darrius Heyward-Bey. I actually like both of these receivers this week. DHB has thrived since the addition of Carson Palmer at quarterback. Heyward-Bey is the most talented receiver on the Oakland Raiders. He has the best chance to succeed on Sunday.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Denarius Moore. This is another one that could go either way because these two Oakland Raiders wideouts seem to be alternating weeks in which they produce. What I like about Denarius Moore is that he seems to get loose deep down the field and Carson Palmer has shown that he still possesses a strong enough arm to get him the football. However, if Moore doesn’t haul in a deep one, Darius Heyward-Bey will likely have the better fantasy afternoon.

 

Denver Broncos D/ST or Kansas City Chiefs D/ST

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Denver Broncos D/ST. I’m not buying the Kyle Orton factor for the Kansas City Chiefs, at least this week. The Denver Broncos, Tim Tebow and the Bronco defense are going to rebound and win the AFC West in Week 17. Orton will get intercepted at least once and take a few sacks.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Denver Broncos D/ST. Close call here, but I am going to side with the defense that has a lot more to play for. If the Denver Broncos win, they are in the playoffs. All the Kansas City Chiefs can do is play spoiler. Both will be similar in fantasy points, but I like the Broncos’ chances more of making a big play or two.

 

Over/Under

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills)—280 passing yards, two touchdowns.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Under. The matchup is great on paper, but I just don’t like Ryan Fitzpatrick. The touchdown total he can hit, but the yardage is going to be around 250 or a little bit less. The New England Patriots should end this game early.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—False. I could go either way on this one because we all know the New England Patriots can’t defend the pass and the Buffalo Bills will likely be playing catch-up. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been sketchy at times this year and even in the greatest of matchup I can’t trust in him or the Bills offense with any degree of confidence.

 

WR Victor Cruz (New York Giants)—100 receiving yards, one touchdown.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Over. There are some question marks surrounding Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz has already surpassed him as the New York Giants top receiver. As I’ve said throughout this article, there will be points scored in the Dallas-New York game. Start Cruz and don’t look back.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Over. Victor Cruz has emerged as a premier receiver in the New York Giants pass happy offense and his Week 17 matchup versus the Dallas Cowboys is well worth exploiting.  Expect a lot of points to be scored and for Cruz to continue to make plays that help propel the Giants to the playoffs.  He went for 74 yards on six receptions earlier this year against the Dallas Cowboys, however this time around I am thinking 110 yards and a touchdown.

 

RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints)—60 total yards, one touchdown.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Under. Although it looks like Mark Ingram will sit again this week, it’s hard to trust the New Orleans Saints rushing attack with the way Drew Brees is throwing. New Orleans has something to play for this week, so I expect Brees to air it out all day. The yardage total could be surpassed if New Orleans is running out the clock. However there are a lot of options in that backfield. It might not be Thomas getting the ball.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Over. It’s no mystery that NFL teams can run on the Carolina Panthers, and while their defense is improving they won’t be able to contain the high powered New Orleans Saints offense. Thomas had 10 touches for 42 total yards and a score in a previous meeting against the Panthers and I expect him to be in the 65-75 yard range this week. Now all he needs is that touchdown plunge to hit his Over/Under projection.

 

TE Dustin Keller—six catches, 70 receiving yards.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Under. Dustin Keller will come close to hitting these totals, but five catches for 50-60 yards is more realistic. Like all the New York Jets receivers, Keller is so hit or miss. Mark Sanchez will look Holmes’ direction a lot in this game.

Bruno Boys Marc Caviglia—Under.I wouldn’t care if Dustin Keller was playing against a Pop Warner League team, I just can’t trust him enough to repeat his eight receptions for 77 yards showing in Week 16. While the yardage might be there, Keller has hauled in six or more receptions in a game just twice and that could be the shortcoming that prevents him from reaching this projection.

Click this link to read the 2011 Fantasy Football Roundtable Part I: Week 17 featuring “Three Burning Questions Heading into Week 17,” “Real Deal or Week 16 Wonder?” and “Fantasy True or False.