Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

2011 Fantasy Football Roundtable Part II: Week 15 Predictions

Written by: Jimbo Jones
Staff Contributor: Rich Arleo
Edited by: Allie Fontana

Welcome to the 2011 Fantasy Football Roundtable Part II: Week 15 Predictions featuring Who’ll Have the Better Fantasy Week?, Who Would You Rather Start? and Over/Under predictions about fantasy-relevant players by Bruno Boys staff writers Jimbo Jones and Rich Arleo. Please note that the opinions expressed in this article are Jimbo Jones’ and Rich Arleo’s—they may or may not be in agreement with the official position of Bruno Boys Fantasy Football. Our goal is to provide readers with additional insights and perspectives on hot topics in fantasy football as well as the week’s most talked about players.

 

Who’ll Have the Better Fantasy Week?

QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) or QB Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Aaron Rodgers. Both quarterbacks will have big weeks. I like Aaron Rodgers more than Tony Romo because the Dallas Cowboys are likely to run more this week than the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers’ owners should not be concerned about the loss of Greg Jennings. Rodgers can make any receiver look good. Romo handing off to Felix Jones will be a staple in the Dallas offense.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Tony Romo. Week 14 was the first week that Tony Romo outscored Aaron Rodgers all season (aside from Rodgers’ bye week, of course), and here’s why. Not only did Rodgers lose one of his best receivers (Greg Jennings), Green Bay frequently blows out their opponents and he doesn’t have to throw a ton. It’s also true that most of these games are blowouts because Rodgers already threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns in the first half. However this week it comes down to Romo having the better matchup vs. Tampa Bay and all his receivers are healthy. Although both quarterbacks should tear it up this week, I see Romo scoring just a few more points then Rodgers when all is said and done.

RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams) or RB Cedric Benson (Cincinnati Bengals)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Steven Jackson. Cedric Benson has the better matchup on paper, however I was pretty impressed with how well the St. Louis Rams bottled up Marshawn Lynch in the first half last Monday night. While Benson is a tougher runner than Lynch, he’s not more skilled. Andy Dalton is likely to throw a lot more than Sam Bradford, and when Steven Jackson is healthy, there is no running back in the league that is harder to take down.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Cedric Benson. This one’s easy. Steven Jackson may be the more talented back and he’s pretty much the only offensive threat on the St. Louis Rams, however he faces a much better defense that will focus on stopping him. The St. Louis Rams defense is absolutely atrocious and Benson is good enough to get it done against them. Plus, the Bengals actually have a passing attack to keep defenses honest. Expect some big things from Benson this week.

RB Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens) or RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Ray Rice. Ryan Mathews will have his hands full this week against a stout Baltimore Ravens defense that will be even tougher with Ray Lewis back in the lineup. While Mathews has been running better over the last several weeks, he and his San Diego Charger teammates play well against bad opponents and awful against strong ones. Ray Rice is matchup proof. He’ll have no trouble posting better numbers than his counterpart on Sunday night.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo— Ray Rice. This is another easy one. Ryan Mathews has been great lately, however he faces the No. 2 run defense in the NFL and Mike Tolbert continues to vulture his scores. Ray Rice faces a San Diego Chargers run defense that’s given up 128.9 YPG and he gets all the scoring chances out of the backfield.

 

WR Percy Harvin (Minnesota Vikings) or WR Marques Colston (New Orleans Saints)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Marques Colston. The problem with the New Orleans Saints from a fantasy perspective has been, “Who is Drew Brees going to throw to?” Well, we know who he’s throwing to—Marques Colston. Since returning from injury, only Jimmy Graham rivals Colston as Brees’ go-to target. This is also a dream matchup for this duo.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Percy Harvin. This game could become a shootout and when it comes down to it, Drew Brees has other options than Marques Colston while Christian Ponder (or whoever ends up under center) basically has Harvin and that’s it. The impending return of Adrian Peterson could hurt his value a tad, however the Vikings have finally realized just how much of a threat Harvin is. He should continue to put up big numbers.

 

WR Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants) or WR Victor Cruz (New York Giants)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Hakeem Nicks. Victor Cruz is a flash in the pan. Hakeem Nicks is the real deal and the true star receiver for the New York Giants. Cruz is guilty of some ugly drops and inconsistency. Nicks is only inconsistent when Eli Manning fails to get him the ball. Nicks is the stud here and the sure-fire fantasy starter.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Hakeem Nicks. This one is somewhat of a tossup because it just depends on who is open and when Eli can find him. I’ll give Hakeem Nicks the edge since he is still atop the depth chart for a reason. Cruz has his issues with drops and that could be the difference between the two on Sunday.

 

Who Would You Rather Start?

QB Tarvaris Jackson (Seattle Seahawks) or QB Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Rex Grossman. Tarvaris Jackson has been better than people gave him credit for at the start of the year, even after the Seattle Seahawks lost Sidney Rice for the season. However Jackson faces a difficult matchup this week in a road game against a ticked off Chicago Bears team at Soldier Field. Rex Grossman has a better chance of posting multiple touchdowns against a beatable New York Giants defense. Don’t expect big yardage totals for either quarterback.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Rex Grossman. I’d rather not start either of these guys, but if I had to make a decision between the two then I’d go with Rex Grossman. Tarvaris Jackson has scored more than 11 fantasy points just once this season and that was all the way back in Week 4. Grossman has done it three out of the last four games. He had success against a soft New England secondary and can do the same against a struggling New York Giants defense.

 

WR Titus Young (Detroit Lions) or WR Any (Oakland Raider)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Titus Young. The Oakland Raiders are falling apart at the seams. Their best bet is to run the ball with Michael Bush. Titus Young has been coming on strong as a reliable target for Matthew Stafford in recent weeks. In fact, Young has been more reliable than Nate Burleson. As long as defenses focus solely on Calvin Johnson, Young will continue to be open and a threat for the deep ball.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Titus Young. If you missed watching Carson Palmer play last week, then you missed a quarterback who looked lost. Most of the Oakland Raiders receivers are injured and the ones that are left aren’t anything special. At least Titus Young has a good quarterback throwing to him and he’s done relatively well during the second half of the season.

 

TE Kellen Winslow (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) or TE Dustin Keller (New York Jets)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Dustin Keller. I don’t like either of these tight ends and they’ve both been disappointments for the most part in 2011. I don’t see Kellen Winslow being much of a factor against the Dallas Cowboys. Dustin Keller has a slightly better chance of a red-zone score. Hopefully you aren’t counting on either tight end this week.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Dustin Keller. If Kellen Winslow was on another team, then he might get the nod, however the Bucs look awful right now. There just aren’t many opportunities for the talented tight end. While Dustin Keller has had a disappointing season, he could easily find his way through the Philadelphia Eagles defenders and into the end zone in what is a much-improved New York Jets offense.

Atlanta Falcons D/ST (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) or Arizona Cardinals D/ST (vs. Cleveland Browns)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Arizona Cardinals. The Atlanta Falcons defense is more talented than the Arizona Cardinals, however they face a red hot Maurice Jones-Drew on Thursday night. Arizona’s defense has had quite an impressive turnaround over the season and they’re no longer a pushover. In addition, the Cardinals face the Cleveland Browns, a team that has zero superstars on offense. The Cardinals have the better chance for a shutout.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Arizona Cardinals. The Atlanta Falcons have a good defense, however it just hasn’t translated to fantasy success this season. They could put up some points against Blaine Gabbert and the Jacksonville Jaguars and are a decent play this week. However the Arizona Cardinals team defense has actually outscored them this season in fantasy and has an even better matchup with an awful Cleveland Browns offense. The fact that the dangerous Patrick Peterson returns punts for the Cardinals should also not be forgotten.

 

Over/Under

QB Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos)—200 passing yards, 60 rushing yards, one touchdown.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Under. Everybody loves Tim Tebow this week. While I’ve been in his corner up to this point, I don’t like him at all against the New England Patriots. New England’s front line is still pretty good and they’ll be able to keep Tebow from racking up the running yards. As far as the passing yards go, yes, the Patriots secondary is pitiful. However that doesn’t mean the Denver Broncos will fix what has been ailing them—receivers dropping easy passes; Tebow miraculously becoming incredibly accurate; and most importantly, Denver moving away from the gameplan of running into the line for three quarters. If the Patriots jump out to a big lead and the Broncos try to play catch up for an entire game, then the Denver offense will sputter and make mistakes as they try to keep up. I’m sitting Tebow this week.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Over. We’ve seen some big fantasy games for quarterbacks against the New England Patriots this season. Tim Tebow has yet to deliver more than 200 passing yards and 60 rushing yards in the same game this season, however both of his 200-plus yard passing performances have come in the last two weeks. I think the biggest concern is the 60 rushing yards. That said, I think Tebow puts it all together in a big game against New England. The Denver Broncos have had Bill Belichick’s number over the last few years and that was prior to Tebow-mania.

 

RB Beanie Wells (Arizona Cardinals)—75 rushing yards, one touchdown.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Over. Beanie Wells isn’t healthy, hasn’t been healthy, and will end the season gimpy. Fortunately, Wells faces the awful Cleveland Browns in Week 15 and there’s room for him to hit the projections. In fact, Wells could exceed them based on how much time Arizona has the ball. He’s a decent RB2 play this week.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Over. Beanie Wells should exceed the 75 yards rushing and a score this week as long as he can stay on the field for the entire game. His injury issues are well documented. However if Wells sees 20-plus carries against a Cleveland Browns run defense that has allowed 150.9 YPG this season, never mind 75 yards…he could sniff 175.

 

RB Marion Barber (Chicago Bears)—60 rushing yards, one touchdown.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Under. Marion Barber is in the doghouse big time after two late-game blunders against the Denver Broncos in Week 14. This week he goes up against the fairly stout run defense of the Seattle Seahawks. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lovie Smith decided to either throw a lot this week to see what Caleb Hanie can do, or give Kahlil Bell more playing time to see what he is capable of. Barber could spend a lot of time on the sidelines a lot this week, chewing a bone in his doghouse.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Over. I’m a little concerned that Marion Barber could be in Lovie Smith’s doghouse after blowing the game and refusing to talk to the media all week. Right now, however, he is surprisingly the best offensive weapon in the Chicago Bears arsenal. If they hope to win this week, then they have to feed Barber the ball often. I see 75 yards and a touchdown.

 

WR Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers)—five receptions, 80 receiving yards.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Over. While Steve Smith’s matchup vs. the Houston Texans is not easy by any means, Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers are making a conscious effort to get him the ball. Houston will dominate time of possession with how much they run the ball. Newton will have to make the most out of each Carolina series and will look to Smith early and often.

Bruno Boys Rich Arleo—Over. I’m all about offense this week. Maybe it’s wishful thinking because of crucial fantasy matchups, but I think we’ll see a lot of big performances in Week 15. Granted, the Houston Texans have a very tough secondary. I see Steve Smith eclipsing the five receptions for 80 yards projection, especially if Panthers teammate Greg Olsen is unavailable.

 

Click this link to read the 2011 Fantasy Football Roundtable Part I: Week 15 featuring “Three Burning Questions Heading into Week 15,” “Real Deal or Week 14 Wonder?” and “Fantasy True or False.