Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Written by: Jimbo Jones
Staff Contributor: James Burulcich
Edited by: Allie Fontana

Welcome to the Week 16 edition of the 2011 Fantasy Football Roundtable, our two-part weekly article offering fantasy insights and predictions. Bruno Boys writer Jimbo “Waiver Wire” Jones is joined each week by another member of the team to discuss burning questions and hot topics on the minds of fantasy football owners, offer opinions on the players who flashed or crashed the previous week and make predictions about which players will deliver for their fantasy owners and which ones won’t.  Bruno Boys James Burulcich mixes it up with Jimbo Jones in Week 16. 

 

Opening Round: Three Questions Heading into Week 16

1.  Now that the Green Bay Packers’ hopes for a 16-0 season have gone up in flames, should fantasy owners be legitimately concerned that the team will sit its star players or use them for less than a complete game in Week 16 ?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Not necessarily. Keep in mind that the Packers have clinched a first-round bye and they’re already getting a week off, so they might not want to sit their stars for essentially two weeks. The regular starters will be on the field during the last two weeks of the season. However if Green Bay jumps out to a big first-half lead in Week 17, then we’re likely to see them sit key fantasy players at some point in the game. If your league goes through the last week of the regular season, then roll with the Packers you typically start and hope they produce a lot of first-half points.  Nothing should change for this week, especially since Green Bay will want to lock up the first seed in the playoffs and get the bad taste out of their mouths from the recent loss to Kansas City. 

Bruno Boys James Burulcich—One hundred percent yes! Fantasy owners should be concerned about Green Bay benching its starters. How can you not be? The Packers lost Greg Jennings for multiple games in Week 14 and then two tackles last week. I definitely see most of the Packers starters playing for maybe two or three quarters at most in the remaining games of the regular games. It just makes sense for them to protect their starters.

2 . Is it time for fantasy owners to bite the bullet and drop either RB Darren McFadden (Oakland Raiders) or RB Matt Forte (Chicago Bears) if there is a worthwhile pickup available on the waiver wire?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Yes. Darren McFadden will not play again this season unless the Oakland Raiders find a way to get into the playoffs. Hue Jackson protects McFadden as if he were a crystal vase. He’s not going to just throw DMC back out there and risk another injury. As far as Matt Forte is concerned, there is more hope for him than there is for McFadden, but still, it’s highly unlikely. Short of a miracle, the Chicago Bears won’t make it to the postseason this year. What’s the point in bringing him back too soon? His prognosis is not as bad as McFadden’s so you never know. I wouldn’t count on either one, though.

Bruno Boys James Burulcich— Again, 100 percent yes! Fantasy owners should cut ties with Darren McFadden and/or Matt Forte if there is a worthwhile pickup on the wire. Unless you are in a keeper league, there is no reason to hang on to these guys. Why? Because even if they even came back for Week 16 or 17, they more than likely wouldn’t get a full workload. Moreover, it takes weeks to get back into game shape after returning from an injury. McFadden and Forte are expendable if there is a player that you need on waivers. 

 

3.  Which under-the-radar player would make for an excellent start for fantasy owners during Championship Week?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Believe it or not, it’s a name that hasn’t been said in a positive light for basically the entire season—C.J. Spiller, running back with the Buffalo Bills. Since taking over for Fred Jackson, Spiller has been producing at a solid level, including two touchdowns last week against the Miami Dolphins in what was billed as an unfavorable matchup for the second-year player. Spiller gets the Denver Broncos at home this week, and while the Broncos have improved as the season has gone on, they are still susceptible to get beaten on the run. I think Spiller is an excellent RB2 with upside in Week 16.

Bruno Boys James Burulcich—Kahlil Bell, Chicago Bears running back. I love Bell’s prospects for the final two games of the season. Under Mike Martz, the Bears offense was built around a running back like Matt Forte, one who can both run and catch the football. Marion Barber is not that type of back. The fact that Bell out produced him last week bodes well for his upcoming matchups. I think that Bell can be a low-end RB2 for your team and at worst a solid flex option during the fantasy championship weeks.

 

Real Deal or Week 15 Wonder?

RB Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones— Real Deal. In terms of this week against the Houston Texans, Donald Brown might not be able to help you win a fantasy championship. On the other hand, he looks to be the best bet to dominate the workload in Indianapolis heading into the 2012 season. While he can be inconsistent at times, Brown has shown enough splashes of promise to most likely the Colts starting running back next season.

Bruno Boys James Burulcich—Real Deal. Donald Brown has been about the only highlight on the Colts all season long. Being that so many running backs are currently dealing with injuries or bad matchups, you could do much worse than Brown if you need help at the position this week. While I don’t foresee another 160-yard rushing performance, 80 yards and a touchdown in each of the next two weeks could be enough.

 

WR Lance Moore (New Orleans Saints)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Week 15 Wonder. Lance Moore has been red hot in the past couple weeks, however that doesn’t mean that he replaces Marques Colston or Jimmy Graham in Drew Brees’ pecking order. Unless the current situation changes in New Orleans, Moore will only be productive in your lineup if he scores.

Bruno Boys James Burulcich—Week 15 Wonder. This is who Lance Moore is. Some games he produces and other games he doesn’t show up. It all depends on what Drew Brees sees as opportunities opposing defenses are offering up. That said, since Brees is just 305 yards from Dan Marino’s all time record, I think all Saints are decent plays in Week 16.

 

RB Malcom Floyd (San Diego Chargers)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones— Week 15 Wonder. Malcom Floyd has shown he can snag a deep ball, but for the most part, he’s incredibly inconsistent as long as Vincent Jackson is in the lineup. The other thing about Floyd is that he gets injured far too often. Even if Jackson leaves the San Diego Chargers during the offseason, the constant injury concern is a major red flag for Floyd.

Bruno Boys James Burulcich—Week 15 Wonder. Malcolm Floyd has failed to put a performance like he did last week all season long. He is someone I could not see trusting in my lineup during the championships. I think there are better options to be had like Donald Driver, Torrey Smith or even Titus Young.

 

RB Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oakland Raiders)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Real Deal.  Since taking the helm for the Oakland Raiders in midseason, Carson Palmer has found a way to bring out the best in Darrius Heyward-Bey. Whether it lasts or goes dormant when Jason Campbell returns next season remains to be seen. Heyward-Bey has shown that he does have superstar playmaking ability. He obviously needs the right quarterback to bring it out of him and he also has to stay healthy.

Bruno Boys James Burulcich— Real Deal. Carson Palmer has to throw to someone and it seems Darrius Heyward-Bey wins out because he’s one of the few healthy receivers that the Oakland Raiders have. Palmer should throw enough balls Heyward-Bey’s way on Saturday versus the Chiefs for him to be productive. Fantasy owners who lost Greg Jennings or possibly Vincent Jackson this week might want to take a chance on Heyward-Bey in Week 16.

 

TE Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Real Deal. After playing Brent Celek every week for the past month, I foolishly sat him last week. Celek has been dominating receptions for the Philadelphia Eagles in the second half of the season. It’s true that Celek does not have tremendous natural ability, but when you have receivers like Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson spreading the field, he doesn’t have to be Jason Witten or Antonio Gates. Keep playing Celek.

Bruno Boys James Burulcich—Real Deal. Brent Celek has been a pretty consistent option the last few weeks and it finally seems that Michael Vick has found trust in him. Last season Vick looked elsewhere but with the sporadic play from DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin slowly getting back in the fold after multiple injuries, Celek has been getting a good amount of looks. Celek is a great option for fantasy owners looking for a hot hand at the position or for those who lost Jake Ballard for the season.

 

Fantasy True or False?

The Denver Broncos defense will be a viable fantasy starter in Week 16 versus the Buffalo Bills.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones— True. If you use the Denver Broncos defense this week, keep in mind that you won’t get points for a shutout. The Buffalo Bills will put points on the board, however Ryan Fitzpatrick has fizzled out big time after he started out hot in the early season. He’ll make mistakes, take sacks and get intercepted. Considering how much the Denver offense likes to control the clock, the Broncos D won’t be on the field too often. If you need a plug-and-play team defense this week, Denver is a good play.

Bruno Boys James Burulcich—True. The Denver Broncos defense has been great over the nine weeks since Tim Tebow took over the starter’s job from Kyle Orton. Despite the great performance from C.J. Spiller last week, the Bills have struggled on offense since Fred Jackson went down. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t look as sharp as he did in the beginning of the season and I believe the Broncos will be able to force turnovers. Also, Von Miller will be able to get to Fitzpatrick this week unlike last weeks versus the Patriots.

 

QB Matt Moore (Miami Dolphins) will post top-10 fantasy numbers this week against the New England Patriots. 

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—True. The New England Patriots defense is pathetic. Anybody can throw on them. If the Denver defense had a better showing last week, then Tim Tebow would have beaten New England. Matt Moore should hook up with Brandon Marshall and his other receivers a lot this week. Throw in a couple of screen passes to Reggie Bush that could be big gainers and you’ve got a solid fantasy day.

Bruno Boys James Burulcich—True. It would be a serious understatement to say that the New England Patriots secondary is weak.  In fact, they are abysmal. Matt Moore threw for 217 yards and three touchdowns against a similarly bad Buffalo secondary. I believe Moore will approach 300 yards and three touchdowns this week. Moore is an excellent replacement for Ben Roethlisberger who is expected to sit out this week.

RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks) will score a rushing touchdown in Week 16 against the San Francisco 49ers .

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—True. After Monday’s night huge win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco is going to have the big-win hangover and lay an egg in Seattle this week. Marshawn Lynch will not rack up the yardage totals, probably only garnering about 40-50 yards. He will hit paydirt at least once, though. Lynch has been one of the best running backs in football the past month and a half. Not even the Niners will be able to totally shut him down.

Bruno Boys James Burulcich—True. It’s the best run defense in the league (San Francisco 49ers) versus the man powered by Skittles (Marshawn Lynch)! I believe that Skittles will win the day! Although I’m not expecting more than 50 rushing yards from Lynch this week, I do believe they get one chance on the goal line and he ”beast mode’s” his way for a score. The last time a team didn’t allow a rushing touchdown was way back in 1929. I believe the odds are against San Francisco.

 

Click this link to read 2011 Fantasy Football Roundtable Part II: Week 16 Predictions featuring “Who’ll Have the Better Fantasy Week?”, “Who Would You Rather Start?” and “Fantasy Over/Under.”