Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Written by: Jimbo Jones
Staff Contributor: Ryan Czopek
Edited by: Allie Fontana

Welcome to the Week 14 edition of the 2011 Fantasy Football Roundtable, our two-part weekly article offering fantasy insights and predictions. Bruno Boys writer Jimbo “Waiver Wire” Jones is joined each week by another member of the team to discuss burning questions and hot topics on the minds of fantasy football owners, offer opinions on the players who flashed or crashed the previous week and make predictions about which players will deliver for their fantasy owners and which ones won’t. Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek mixes it up with Jimbo Jones in Week 14. 

 

Opening Round: Three Questions Heading into Week 14

1.  How much do you factor in players playing at home versus on the road when scoping the wavier wire and setting your lineup?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—I don’t think too much about who the visiting and home team players are at the start of the season. I take a longer look at who plays at home toward the end of the season. Weather conditions can be a factor in many places. We have a clearer picture of who the better defenses are and are not. Putting a marginal player in your lineup that has a home game against a bad team can go a long way in the fantasy playoffs.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek—Home vs. on the road is a factor, however there are other factors that are even more important when your scouting the waiver wire for talent. Current trends, playing situations and health issues are other things to consider.

2 . What’s the best advice for fantasy owners during the actual playoff weeks?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Don’t get too cute with your lineup. These are the biggest weeks of the season. Don’t over think it. Keep doing the same things that got you into the playoffs. Even if your studs have tough matchups, keep them in your lineups unless you have other studs to replace them with. Don’t rock the boat on a big risk because it could literally mean the end of your season.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek—Trust the guys who got you to the playoffs. Try not to over think matchups, because that pretty much leads to disaster more often than to success. Your studs are your studs for a reason. They have been consistent for you most of the season and it’s not always a good idea to bench them in favor of another player that has a better matchup and a limited history of fantasy success. Minimize your risk and hope your guys come through for you.

 

3.  Outside of the regular fantasy studs, what player or players do you think have solid fantasy matchups during the playoff weeks?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Two players who jump out at me are Tampa Bay’s LeGarrette Blount and Denver’s Tim Tebow. Although Blount was a huge disappointment against the Carolina Panthers in Week 13, he’ll get a chance for revenge when the teams meet for the second time in Week 16, the championship week for most fantasy playoffs. Blount also gets the Jacksonville Jaguars this week in a favorable matchup now that their defense is no longer stingy. While Tebow has his toughest test of the season this week against the Chicago Bears, I actually like his chances for success. Denver should have the ball a lot because the Bears will be without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. In the upcoming weeks, Tebow gets the New England Patriots and their dreadful secondary and then the Buffalo Bills in Week 16.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek—I like Reggie Bush and Santana Moss for players with solid fantasy matchups during the playoff weeks. Bush is going against the Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills in Weeks 14 and 15. Both teams are top 10 in fantasy points allowed to the running back position this season. Bush was also productive against the Buffalo Bills in Week 11 (32 rushing yards, 35 receiving yards and a touchdown). Moss is facing four teams that are currently hemorrhaging fantasy points to the wide receiver position (New England Patriots, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles). It also doesn’t hurt that Moss is unquestionably quarterback Rex Grossman’s best target now the tight end Fred Davis has been suspended for the rest of the season.

 

Real Deal or Week 13 Wonder?

QB Dan Orlovsky (Indianapolis Colts)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Week 13 Wonder. Dan Orlovsky connected on some garbage time touchdown passes against the horrible New England Patriots secondary last week. While he could potentially bring some fantasy relevance back to either Pierre Garcon or Reggie Wayne, you shouldn’t consider Orlovsky for your lineup under any circumstances, including leagues that start two quarterbacks. He’ll come crashing back down to Earth this week at Baltimore.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek—Week 13 Wonder. He’s better than Curtis Painter, but then again who isn’t? While Dan Orlovsky threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns in Week 13, it’s important to remember that the New England Patriots have the worst pass defense in the league. New England also replaced their starters with backups on several snaps in the second half after they were up by what they thought was a comfortable margin. Yes, the Indianapolis Colts will probably dig themselves into early holes for the remaining games this season and yes, Orlovsky will have to throw the ball. That said, it seem unlikely that he’ll duplicate the level of success he achieved in Week 13. Orlovsky and the Colts face the tough pass defenses of the Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Real Deal.  Although the season stats don’t show it, Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is actually a much more skilled receiver than teammate Eric Decker. The Minnesota Vikings eliminated Decker last week, and Tim Tebow how to find other options in the passing game. It would be an understatement to say that Thomas came up huge and it could very well be the game that ignites the fantasy fire for Thomas. He could be an absolute steal in the season’s final month.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek— Week 13 Wonder. Demaryius Thomas may very well be a future star for the Denver Broncos. However the offense is all about the run right now and that makes it incredibly difficult to trust any of their receivers from one week to the next. Week 13 was also the first time that Thomas had more than 37 yards receiving this season.

 

RB Shonn Greene (New York Jets)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Week 13 Wonder. Shonn Greene has been a complete bust in 2011. It was a total fluke that Greene broke free for those fourth quarter scores in Week 13. The New York Jets have repeatedly said they need to get Mark Sanchez and the passing game going, and that’s probably because they also think that Greene stinks. He had the best fantasy day he’ll ever lave last week against the Washington Redskins. I still want nothing to do with this guy.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek—Real Deal. Even though New York Jets running back Shonn Greene has been disappointing most of this season, he has looked good recently. He has 166 yards rushing, six receptions for 38 yards and scored three touchdowns over his last two games. Green also has matchups on tap against the New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. All three are top 11 in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this season.

WR Malcom Floyd (San Diego Chargers)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Real Deal. Malcom Floyd has had been injury riddled since the middle of the 2010 season. When he’s healthy, Floyd has been rock solid for the San Diego Chargers. Combine him with Vincent Jackson and Philip Rivers has the two deep threats that he desperately needs to make the offense work. As long as Floyd is healthy, he is an excellent WR3 in the fantasy playoffs.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek—Week 13 Wonder. Don’t get me wrong, I like Malcom Floyd, but he’s been really brittle this season. Floyd has missed several games due to nagging injuries, which makes him a big injury risk at a crucial time for fantasy owners. It also doesn’t help his cause that he’s the third-best receiving option on the San Diego Chargers, or that Philip Rivers hasn’t played anywhere near the MVP- level that he has in past years.

 

RB Dexter McCluster (Kansas City Chiefs)

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Week 13 Wonder. The only reason why Kansas City’s Dexter McCluster hit double-digit scoring totals in Week 13 is because he got a fluke Hail Mary at the end of the first half of the Chiefs game against the Chicago Bears. McCluster is just too small to do any real damage on a consistent basis. He would have to break loose for another huge play to help your fantasy team again.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek— Week 13 Wonder. First of all, Dexter McCluster’s Week 13 numbers are a bit skewed, considering his touchdown reception was caught off of a deflection. The Kansas City Chiefs are using a three-headed rushing attack (Thomas Jones, Jackie Battle and Dexter McCluster) and McCluster is averaging only 7.5 carries per game this season. With those numbers, the chances of him continuing to have breakout games are pretty slim. Moreover, Jones and Battle are better suited for goal-line carries than McCluster, however it’s kind of a moot point because the Chiefs are rarely anywhere near the end zone. There are too many red flags and not enough positives to declare McCluster a “real deal.”

 

Fantasy True or False?

RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings) will NOT be a valuable asset during the fantasy playoffs.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—False. Adrian Peterson returned to practice on Thursday and Minnesota Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier has been nothing but positive about his chances of playing this week. If Peterson is active, then you cannot afford to leave him on your bench. Even if the Vikings sideline Peterson one more week, they won’t sit him the rest of the year. Peterson should be available for the fantasy playoffs unless he suffers a setback. He also has a proven track record of performing at a high level even when he’s not 100 percent healthy. Start him.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek— False. Even when Adrian Peterson isn’t 100 percent healthy, he’s dangerous every time he cradles the ball in his arms. The Vikings will give Peterson the touches to be successful as long as he’s on the field. While it’s possible that he may struggle initially, Peterson could certainly make an impact deep in the playoffs as he gets stronger with each passing week.

Last week’s poor showing was a fluke for RB Michael Bush (Oakland Raiders) and this week he bounces back with double-digit fantasy points against the Green Bay Packers.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—False. The real problem with Michael Bush in Week 13, was not that he stunk personally, but that the Oakland Raiders fell behind early. They stopped giving Bush the ball almost completely when they were trailing. This week the Raiders have a road game against the Green Bay Packers. There is a very good chance that they’ll be playing catch up for the entire game and Bush could have another underwhelming performance. If you have another strong running back option on your bench, then it wouldn’t be a stupid decision to sit Bush this week. Don’t drop him though. Who knows what Darren McFadden’s status will be next week.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek—True. Bush might have been bad against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13, but the Oakland Raiders were bad on both sides of the ball and had very few positives in that game. Overall, Bush has been terrific in Darren McFadden’s stead over the Oakland Raiders’ last five games, averaging 89.8 yards per game and scoring four touchdowns. He should bounce back against a Green Bay Packers’ team that has struggled against the run recently allowing six rushing touchdowns over their last six games.

WR Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys) will pick up right where he left off and be a valuable fantasy commodity in the playoff weeks.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—True, to a certain extent. The Dallas Cowboys need Miles Austin involved in the offense if they hope to hold on to the NFC East Division title. At the same time, Austin is no good to them if they rush him back too soon and he reinjures a hamstring. I think that Austin will most likely be on a limited snap count in Week 14 so that the Cowboys can monitor how his legs hold up. This week’s crucial game against the New York Giants should be a shootout, which means that Austin could score fantasy points even with a capped snap count. Barring re-injury, he is an excellent play the rest of the way.

Bruno Boys Ryan Czopek—True. The Dallas Cowboys coaching staff played it smart and waited for Miles Austin to be 100 percent healthy so that he’d be ready for a big matchup against the New York Giants in Week 14.  Austin has great chemistry with Tony Romo and over the last four games of the regular season, he and the Cowboys face the struggling pass defenses of the aforementioned Giants, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Philadelphia Eagles. He is coming back at the best possible time for his fantasy owners.

 

Click this link to read 2011 Fantasy Football Roundtable Part II: Week 14 Predictions featuring “Who’ll Have the Better Fantasy Week?”, “Who Would You Rather Start?” and “Fantasy Over/Under.”