Jan 11, 2012
- Written by Kyle Smith
- Edited by Marc Caviglia
- Predictions are based on Staff Consensus
::RANKINGS UPDATED AS OF JANUARY 11, 2012::
The Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs had a few duds, which is also an appropriate word to describe the tight end play in those games. The leading receiver among tight ends was Heath Miller, with 60 yards, but the only touchdowns at the position were by Jimmy Graham (predictable) and Detroit’s Will Heller (not so predictable). Things are bound to change this weekend, if only because Rob Gronkowski is getting into the mix. In fact, this weekend features four of the top five fantasy scorers at tight end, and five of the top eight, so the scoring pace is bound to pick up ... we hope. Anyway, it’s on to the Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings for the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
Standard Scoring
Pass TD: 4 points | All Other TDs: 6 points
25 Passing Yards: 1 point | All Turnovers: -2 points
10 Rushing Yards: 1 point | 10 Receiving Yards: 1 point
1. Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots) vs. Denver
Gronkowski was tops at the tight end position in fantasy scoring this season, with a whopping 46 more points than runner-up Jimmy Graham. Gronk had 90 receptions and led tight ends with 1,327 receiving yards (sixth overall in the NFL) while leading all players with 17 touchdown grabs. He had a pair of touchdown catches in seven of his 16 games this year, and at least 85 yards in nine contests. However, he had neither a touchdown nor accumulated 85 yards in Week 15 when the Patriots and Broncos first played. In that game, Gronkowski managed just four receptions for 53 yards as Denver clearly focused on shutting him down, though that allowed Aaron Hernandez to run free. We don’t think Gronkowski will be stopped twice against the same team in one season, and fantasy owners should feel confident installing him into their lineups.
Point Projection: 15 points
2. Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints) @ San Francisco
Graham was targeted a team-high 11 times last week against the Lions, and tied for the team lead with seven receptions and scored a touchdown, but was held to only 55 yards. Those certainly aren’t numbers to scoff at, and fantasy owners should be pleased, but it would be disingenuous not to say that a bit more was expected in that game. He gets another shot at putting up big numbers this week, but it’ll be more difficult against a 49ers defense that allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points in the league to opposing tight ends. Difficult, but not impossible, because the Niners did allow seven different tight ends to gain at least 50 yards against them this season, and Graham is the type of mismatch that no defense should be able to shut down completely.
Point Projection: 13 points
3. Aaron Hernandez (New England Patriots) vs. Denver
Hernandez vaulted into third place in fantasy scoring at the tight end position for the season after compiling at least 125 yards and one touchdown twice in his final three games. One of those games came against the Broncos in Week 15, as he amassed a season-high nine catches for 129 yards and a score. In that contest, it was obvious that Denver was keying on Rob Gronkowski, allowing Hernandez to make play after play. That shouldn’t happen again, and with the Broncos having to pick their poison, we believe each New England tight end should have a solid game, making each a worthy fantasy starter.
Point Projection: 12 points
4. Jermichael Finley (Green Bay Packers) vs. New York Giants
Maybe the expectations for Finley were too high, because despite what seemed like a sub-par season for the big tight end, he was fifth among tight ends in fantasy scoring. It certainly helped that he had at least eight fantasy points in four of his last five games, including 14 points against the Giants in Week 13. He had six receptions for a season-high 87 yards and one touchdown in that contest, and the G-Men had difficulty against tight ends all year. Only four teams gave up more fantasy points to players at that position than the Giants, with five different tight ends gaining at least 75 yards against them and eight gaining 60 or more yards.
Point Projection: 11 points
5. Jake Ballard (New York Giants) @ Green Bay
Ballard fizzled against the Falcons last week, with only a pair of catches for 16 yards. But he was coming back from an injury that had caused him to miss some time, so it’s possible he was still knocking the rust off. Hopefully, the rust has been completely eradicated, because he has a golden opportunity this week against Green Bay. The Packers allowed the second-most points in the NFL to opposing tight ends, with a player at that position having scored against them in four of their last five games. Ballard had three catches for 47 yards against Green Bay in Week 13, with Travis Beckum being the Giants tight end that scored, but we’re going to predict that Ballard makes up for that this week.
Point Projection: 9 points
6. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers) vs. New Orleans
While it just seemed like Finley had a down year, it’s certain that Davis did. He was eighth among tight ends in fantasy scoring, and needed 29 points over his last three games to reach that height. He had only four games with at least 60 receiving yards, scored just once over his last six contests, and accumulated fewer than five fantasy points in half of his games this year. The Saints were solid against tight ends all season, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points in the league to players at that position, and before allowing a score last week to Will Heller, hadn’t given up a touchdown to a tight end since Week 10.
Point Projection: 5 points
7. Ed Dickson (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Houston
With the amount of targets that Dickson received this season (89), he should have been much more effective than he was. He did catch a respectable 54 passes, but for just 528 yard, and two of his five touchdowns came in one game. Dickson had only 20 yards on a pair of catches the last time Baltimore played Houston, back in Week 6, and that was the way it went for a lot of tight ends this season when facing the Texans, who allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the league to players at that position. Dickson may have a bit more success, but not much. He’s not a worthy fantasy starter.
Point Projection: 4 points
8. Owen Daniels (Houston Texans) @ Baltimore
Despite being targeted six times last week against the Bengals, Daniels had only 29 yards on two catches. He has now had three or fewer fantasy points in eight of his last nine games, and is now dealing with a hand injury that won’t prevent him from playing, but is an irritant. Also irritating is the fact that his fantasy owners haven’t been able to rely on him for half of the season, and that he’s playing a Ravens squad that allowed the second-fewest fantasy points in the league to opposing tight ends. Daniels had only 13 yards on two catches against them in Week 6.
Point Projection: 3 points
9. Dennis Pitta (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Houston
If Pitta didn’t accumulate 12 fantasy points with 62 yards and a touchdown in Week 17 of the season, he would have finished behind the likes of Jeff King, Kellen Davis and Evan Moore in fantasy scoring. He amassed nine yards on two catches against the Texans in Week 6, and is behind Ed Dickson on Joe Flacco’s preferred targets list. Ignore him for fantasy purposes this week.
Point Projection: 1 point
10. Joel Dreesen (Houston Texans) @ Baltimore
Dreesen didn’t catch a pass or receive a target last week against Cincinnati, and the zero passes he caught equaled the total he had against the Ravens back in Week 6. The bottom line is this – Andre Johnson is back, the Ravens are great in stopping opposing tight ends, and Dreesen is a back-up on his own team. You don’t want him representing your fantasy squad this week.
Point Projection: 1 point
11. Daniel Fells (Denver Broncos) @ New England
We realize that Fells had a big 40-yard catch and scamper against the Steelers last week (he had two catches for 57 yards in the game). That’s great, but it’s also no reason to play him this week against the Patriots. Fells had zero catches against them in Week 15, and it was one of five regular season games in which he didn’t catch any passes. And though New England is terrible against the pass, they’re great against tight ends – only two teams allowed fewer fantasy points to players at that position than they did.
Point Projection: 1 point
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