Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

—Written by Brad Berreman
—Edited by Marc Caviglia
—Predictions are based on Staff Consensus

::RANKINGS UPDATED AS OF JANUARY 13, 2012::

Three of the eight defenses in action this weekend where among the top five scoring fantasy defenses during the regular season, and another (the Green Bay Packers) forced a boatload of turnovers. There is again a fairly fine line between the “haves” and the “have-nots” this week, and only a couple of the available options look like sure-fire top tier defenses with little downside.

Before we roll out our rankings for the Divisional round, here is a reminder of how to use our “Bruno Boys Star System” for ranking team defenses.

BRUNO BOYS DEFENSIVE STAR SYSTEM

5-Stars (*****)- Bruno Boys Top Plays of the Week
4-Stars (****)- Bruno Boys Very Solid Plays of the Week
3-Stars (*** - Bruno Boys Average Plays of the Week
2-Stars (**)- Bruno Boys Try To Avoid Playing This Week
1-Star (*)- Bruno Boys Do Not Start Unless You Have To

1. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Houston)

The Ravens finished third in the NFL in total defense during the regular season (288.9 yards per game), and they also finished strongly by allowing less than 20 points in five of their final six games. A favorable matchup is coming this week against the Houston Texans, who will have rookie T.J. Yates under center in his first road playoff game. Baltimore held the Texans to 93 rushing yards on 25 carries when the two teams played back in Week 6, so any effort Houston makes to establish the run may be fruitless against the second-best run defense in the league (92.6 yards per game) during the regular season. A return to full health by linebacker Ray Lewis (toe) only helps this unit, and they are our No.1 defense for this weekend.
Bruno Boys Stars:*****

2. Houston Texans (@ Baltimore)

Houston held the Cincinnati Bengals to 10 points and 300 offensive yards on Wild Card weekend, as they also forced three turnovers (including an interception return touchdown) and had four sacks in the game. Another favorable looking matchup is coming in the Divisional Round against the Baltimore Ravens, who were up and down offensively during the regular season and may get wide receiver Anquan Boldin (knee) back this week. That said, the Ravens are likely to look to establish the run with running back Ray Rice and that may play to the advantage of Houston’s fourth-ranked run defense (96 yards per game) from the regular season. There is very little downside here, and the Houston defense should again be regarded as a top tier fantasy option for the Divisional Round.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

3. New England Patriots (vs. Denver)

The Patriots were not a good defense in terms of yardage allowed during the regular season, but they did finish solidly from a fantasy perspective with at least seven fantasy points in six of their last eight games. A matchup with the Denver Broncos is now coming for the Divisional Round, and they will attempt to again contain Tim Tebow and company. When the two teams played in Week 15, New England forced three turnovers and sacked Tebow four times, though they did allow 393 yards and 23 points in the game as well. The Broncos are likely to be without one of their best wide receivers in Eric Decker (knee), so that may further hamper a fairly limited passing game. The potential downside is clear, but fantasy football owners can take a calculated risk with the New England defense as a starting option with some upside for this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:****

4. San Francisco 49ers (vs. New Orleans)

San Francisco finished the regular season as the highest-scoring fantasy defense in ESPN leagues (169 points) and they also had the NFL’s top run defense (77.3 yards per game). A big challenge is coming this week against the New Orleans Saints, who are coming off putting up 45 points and 626 yards of offense last week against the Detroit Lions as they continued their regular season success. The 49ers did finish 16th in the league against the pass (230.9 yards per game), and any defense will have a hard time stopping the array of weapons the Saints have. Fantasy owners who have benefitted from the production of the 49ers defense all season may have a hard time going away from them this week, but those that can should if possible.
Bruno Boys Stars:***

5. New Orleans Saints (@ San Francisco)

The Saints allowed 28 points and 412 yards of offense to the Detroit Lions last week, as they did not register a sack in the game but did force two turnovers. They will travel to take on the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round, so things will be slightly easier facing a much less prolific offense. That said, the 49ers only turned the ball over 10 times all season (zero in their last five games) and New Orleans forced just 16 turnovers during the regular season. So a big fantasy performance from the Saints’ defense looks unlikely on Saturday, and even with the possibility of a fairly low point total allowed there is little upside here.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

6. Green Bay Packers (vs. New York Giants)

Green Bay finished the regular season last in the NFL against the pass (299.8 yards per game), but they did intercept a league-most 31 passes and force a tied for league high 38 turnovers. A fairly tough matchup is coming against the New York Giants this week, as the Giants had 442 offensive yards and scored 24 points against the Atlanta Falcons last week and were in the top 10 of the league in passing offense during the regular season. Back in Week 13 when the two teams played, the Giants scored 35 points and quarterback Eli Manning threw for 347 yards in the game. It looks likely to be a fairly high-scoring game at Lambeau Field on Sunday, but the potential for turnovers makes the Packers’ defense the more desirable of the two defenses for fantasy football owners.
Bruno Boys Stars:**

7. New York Giants (@ Green Bay)

The Giants’ defense had an outstanding defensive performance during Wild Card weekend, as they shutout the Atlanta Falcons’ offense and allowed less than 250 yards of offense. A much tougher matchup is coming for the Divisional round against the Green Bay Packers, who have one of the league’s best offenses and will get wide receiver Greg Jennings (knee) back this weekend after he missed the last few games of the regular season. The Giants finished the regular season 29th against the pass (255.1 yards per game), so if they can’t put pressure on Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers they may struggle to keep points off the board. The possibility for some sacks is here, but that is not enough to elevate the Giants’ defense into the top tier of fantasy defenses for the Divisional round.
Bruno Boys Stars:*

8. Denver Broncos (@ New England)

Denver allowed 400 yards of offense and 23 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, but they did manage to sack a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger five times in the game. Things will be a lot tougher this weekend against the New England Patriots, who ended the regular season second in the NFL in total offense (428 yards per game) and third in scoring offense (32.1 points per game). In the previous matchup of the two teams in Week 15, New England put up 41 points and 453 offensive yards and the Broncos did not force a turnover in the game. Simply put, fantasy football owners need to avoid the Denver defense at all cost this week.
Bruno Boys Stars:*