Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written By Rich Arleo
- Edited By Marc Caviglia

It’s no secret that fantasy football championships can potentially be won with the right value pick or two in the middle to late rounds of your draft. However they can just as easily be lost by squandering early or middle round picks on players who fail to deliver results that match pre-draft expectations. Guys who fall into this category are commonly referred to as busts or overvalued players. Overvalued players tend to be those whose name recognition, preseason hype and/or past fantasy glory (think Randy Moss, Ryan Mathews, Brett Favre) lead owners to draft them too early, while the majority of busts are players whose situations have changed so much (e.g., new quarterback, new team, new coaching staff/scheme, upgrade or downgrade of players around them) that they’ll have a hard time living up to expected production. Others have significant injury histories to the extent that the risk far outweighs the reward.

Now it’s time to take a look at our Fantasy Football Bust Running Backs for the 2011 season. You don’t have to avoid every guy on this list come Draft Day, just go into your draft with your eyes wide open.

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Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns
2010 Stats: 270 carries, 1,177 rushing yards, 61 receptions, 477 receiving yards, 11 total touchdowns

Hillis was featured on our deep sleeper list in 2010 after rookie Montario Hardesty went down with a torn ACL, and that came to fruition in a big way. Hillis took the NFL, and fantasy football owners, by storm. He punched in 13 touchdowns over Cleveland’s first 11 games and went from just another guy to a household name by season’s end. On the year, Hillis ran for 1,177 yards and he was a valuable receiver, as he added 61 receptions for 477 yards.  Many think his big season means there is a lot to like entering 2011, however they couldn’t be more wrong.

Hillis failed to find pay dirt over the Browns’ final five games and he struggled mightily against AFC North opponents the second time through the schedule.  Hillis torched division opponents for 287 rushing yards, 93 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his first meeting, however managed just 107 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards the second shot.

While quarterback Colt McCoy stands to improve in 2011, the Browns still have unproven wideouts on the outside and defensive coordinators don’t respect their aerial attack enough to gameplan against. Instead, they will focus on shutting down the Madden Cover boy. Hillis is going to need to overcome double teams right out of the gate this season, and could struggle to find scoring opportunities. He’ll also have Hardesty waiting in the wings for his slightest of struggles and the Browns brought in Brandon Jackson to help relieve Hillis on third downs.  Consider Hillis a quality RB2 or Flex option, however be careful not to overvalue him like many fantasy players will do in Round 2 of 12-team leagues this year.