Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Written by: Jimbo Jones
Staff Contributor: Allie Fontana
Edited by: Allie Fontana

Welcome to the 2011-2012 Fantasy Football Roundtable Part II: Divisional Round Predictions featuring Who’ll Have the Better Fantasy Week? and Over/Under Projections about fantasy-relevant players by Bruno Boys staff writer Jimbo Jones and managing editor Allie Fontana. Please note that the opinions expressed in this article are Jimbo Jones’ and Allie Fontana’s—they may or may not be in agreement with the official position of Bruno Boys Fantasy Football. Our goal is to provide readers with additional insights and perspectives on hot topics in fantasy football as well as the week’s most talked about players.

 

Who’ll Have the Better Fantasy Week?

RB Arian Foster (Houston Texans) or RB Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Ray Rice. In a situation like this with two outstanding running backs, I’ll lean toward the running back that is not only playing at home, but who also excels at running the ball and catching it. Given the lack of superstar running backs left in the playoffs, both of these players should be in your lineup this week. Rice will edge past Arian Foster, just like how the Ravens will edge past the Texans.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Ray Rice. This is really a coin toss for me between Ray Rice and Arian Foster, as each guy has a challenging matchup and yet, both players are threats running the ball and catching passes out of the backfield. I reluctantly give the edge to Rice this week, mainly on the basis of it being a home game for the Baltimore Ravens and he and his team have significantly more postseason experience than Foster and the first-time Texans. Rice was productive against Houston in Week 6 when he posted 161 combo yards. The Ravens will need an encore performance from Rice this week. In any case, I really don’t like to bet against Foster even in a tough road matchup. I think he’s the best running back in the league and Houston, like Baltimore, needs its stud running back to do damage on the ground and in the air. My head says “Rice” but my heart says “Foster.”

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (New York Giants) or RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (New England Patriots)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—BenJarvus Green-Ellis. I would take Ahmad Bradshaw if he were playing at 100 percent, but this week Brandon Jacobs might actually get the ball more than Bradshaw. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is always a question mark as to how much he will get the ball. If the New England Patriots are running out the clock with a sizeable lead, then he will get his fair share of carries. Go with the healthy back playing at home with a favorable matchup.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Ahmad Bradshaw. While I’m not in love with what Ahmad Bradshaw is doing on the ground, he’s been scoring recently and involved in the New York Giants passing game. On the other hand, BenJarvus Green-Ellis has carried the ball just 31 times for 82 yards in his last five regular season games. He’s become more a short-yardage back for the New England Patriots, which isn’t all bad from a fantasy standpoint because he scores cheap touchdowns.  I don’t think either guy is a great play this weekend; however I think Bradshaw is less likely to be shut out than Green-Ellis. Both play on pass-first offenses and I don’t expect a little cold weather to change that.

 

WR Marques Colston (New Orleans Saints) or WR Robert Meacham (New Orleans Saints)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Marques Colston. Robert Meachem always has his fluky games every now and then. With Lance Moore out this week, Meachem will have a chance to do some more damage, however Marques Colston is the top receiver for the New Orleans Saints. Colston topped the century mark last week against the Detroit Lions. He is the primary target for Drew Brees, and that will continue in the Divisional Round playoff game. Brees will look for his most trusted target early and often in a challenging road matchup against a tough San Francisco 49ers defense.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Marques Colston.  This one is a no-brainer. After missing a few games early on with an injury, Marques Colston has been a consistent fantasy producer for the majority of the season. In fact, from Week 12 through the Wild Card game last Saturday against the Detroit Lions, Colston hauled in 45 receptions for 674 yards and five touchdowns. While the San Francisco 49ers aren’t an easy defense to put up numbers against, the Saints know they are more vulnerable to the pass than the ground. Lance Moore has been ruled out for the game, which means that Colston could see even more red-zone targets. That’s not to say that Robert Meachem won’t have the opportunity to make a couple of big plays. He typically sees single coverage and gets at least one deep ball shot every game. Colston is more go-to, while Meachem needs the big play for fantasy relevance.

 

WR Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) or WR Torrey Smith (Baltimore Ravens)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Michael Crabtree. I don’t really like either of these receivers this week. Both of them are very inconsistent and dependent on touchdowns to be fantasy relevant. However Michael Crabtree has been coming on strong over the past month as he and Alex Smith have developed a pretty nice rapport. The 49ers will have to pass to keep up with the Saints. Take a chance on Crabtree.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Michael Crabtree. While Baltimore’s Torrey Smith probably has the better shot to see the end zone on a limited number of targets, Michael Crabtree has been more involved in his team’s offense over the second half of the season and he has the better matchup. In fact, Crabtree totaled 42 receptions for 545 yards and three touchdowns between Week 11 and Week 17. It’s reasonable to assume that Alex Smith will have to throw more than usual to keep up with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints and he’ll look for Crabtree when he does. He’s an especially solid play in PPR formats this week.

 

TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay Packers) or TE Aaron Hernandez (New England Patriots)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Jermichael Finley. Both tight ends are great options this week. Finley has largely been a fantasy disappointment in 2011. The reason why I like him over Aaron Hernandez this week is because the Green Bay Packers may go easy on Greg Jennings in his first game back from the knee injury, especially if they don’t really need him. If that were to happen, then Finley should get the most looks along with Jordy Nelson.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Aaron Hernandez. I considered rolling with Jermichael Finley because the New York Giants are vulnerable in the secondary and he posted six catches for 87 yards and a score against them in Week 13.  However Greg Jennings was out of action for that game and let’s face it, Finley flirted with bust status this season given where he was drafted. So while Finley has the potential for a productive game, I think Aaron Hernandez will have the better fantasy week against the Denver Broncos on Saturday night. He had nine catches for 129 yards and a touchdown when the Patriots played the Broncos in Week 15 as Denver schemed to limit Rob Gronkowski to just four catches for 53 yards. It’s really a lesser of two evils things where New England’s tight ends are concerned because Hernandez finished as the No. 3 fantasy tight end this season, behind his teammate Gronkowski and New Orleans’ Jimmy Graham. 

 

Over/Under Projections

QB Eli Manning (New York Giants)—300 passing yards, two touchdowns.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Under. Eli Manning will definitely pass for two touchdowns, but I think 300 yards passing is a little bit much. I see him totaling 275-280 yards through the air. This game is going to be a shootout, but at the same time, the Green Bay defense will get the Manning a lot and keep him from turning in one of those epic performances that he has a couple times a year.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Over. Eli Manning had a 347-yard, three touchdown performance in Week 13 against the Green Bay Packers so it’s entirely possible that he’ll do it again in Sunday’s rematch. The Packers defense surrendered 4,988 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season (311.8 yards per game average) and while they can force turnovers, their pass rush isn’t scary. Two touchdowns will be easy for Manning given the talented corps of receivers at his disposal. Weather could potentially be a factor, however I still expect this to be a pass-heavy game that could go down to the wire like the last meeting between the G-Men and the Packers. 

WR Wes Welker (New England Patriots)—Seven receptions, 80 receiving yards

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Over. I don’t think Champ Bailey will be paying much attention to Wes Welker. That should free him up for his typical high volume of catches. While Welker had a fairly quiet second half of 2011, I think he’ll play a major role in New England advancing to the Conference Championship Round. In fact, Welker will post better fantasy totals than Rob Gronkowski on Saturday. The Denver Broncos know that they must stop the Gronk, and Brady will target Welker often.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Over. I love Wes Welker this week against the Denver Broncos, who will gladly give up catches and yards to him while they focus on containing second-yard tight end Rob Gronkowski. Welker had 122 receptions and nine touchdowns this season, and while he had just one score in the last five games of the regular season, he caught 40 balls for 426 yards over the same period. Welker should easily hit the projected totals on Saturday. He’s the definition of PPR fantasy gold.

 

RB Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)—100 rushing yards, one touchdown.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Over. As much as the San Francisco 49ers will need to pass to keep up with the New Orleans Saints, they also can’t forget that running the ball is the team’s bread and butter. The Niners have babied Frank Gore in the past month so that he’d be ready to go for this week. They will give him the ball a ton, at least early in the game. New Orleans does not have a stout run defense, so if he is truly healthy, Gore should be able to hit the century mark without too much trouble.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Over.  My “over” is conditional on the San Francisco 49ers defense being able to keep them in the game long enough to allow Frank Gore to get 15-20 touches and the yards that go with it. The score could be either rushing or receiving. There is little doubt that the Niners will try to control the clock by running the offense through Gore, however if the New Orleans Saints build a lead, then all bets are off. The majority of teams find themselves in shootouts versus the Saints, so for the sake of Gore’s “real” and fantasy numbers this week, his owners better hope the defense keeps them in it. 

QB Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)—250 passing yards, two touchdowns.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Under. Can you ever give Joe Flacco the over? Baltimore will defeat Houston with ball control and defense. Flacco will throw one touchdown pass, probably to Ray Rice, and rack up around 200 yards passing. Flacco will never be a fantasy stud, and I would not count on him on my fantasy team this week. Who knows how healthy Anquan Boldin truly is, and Torrey Smith is highly inconsistent.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Under. Although Joe Flacco threw for 305 yards and had a 1-yard rushing score against the Houston Texans back in Week 6, he didn’t throw a touchdown pass and Baltimore won the game largely on the leg of Billy Cundiff who kicked five field goals. Moreover, he aired it out for over 250 passing yards just six times during the regular season and consistently disappointed fantasy owners who drafted him as a borderline fantasy starter. Flacco has a strong arm and his numbers should be decent with Anquan Boldin back in the lineup as an intermediate target. Rookie wideout Torrey Smith is explosive, yet inconsistent and tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta could spend the afternoon blocking to combat Houston’s excellent pass rush. The Ravens have been more successful when they center the offense on the dual-threat Ray Rice, and while the Texans are likely to key on him, Baltimore needs to use their best offensive weapon. Flacco and the Ravens play better at home, however I see him posting totals in the range of 200-225 yards and one touchdown.