Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Written by: Jimbo Jones
Staff Contributor: Allie Fontana
Edited by: Allie Fontana

Welcome to the Divisional Round edition of the 2011-2012 Fantasy Football Roundtable, our two-part weekly article offering fantasy insights and predictions. Bruno Boys writer Jimbo “Waiver Wire” Jones is joined each week by another member of the team to discuss burning questions and hot topics on the minds of fantasy football owners, offer opinions on the players who flashed or crashed the previous week and make predictions about which players will deliver for their fantasy owners and which ones won’t.  Bruno Boys Allie Fontana mixes it up with Jimbo Jones in Week 19, also known as the Divisional Round. 

Opening Round: Three Questions Heading into the Divisional Round

1.  Would you draft RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) over RB Arian Foster (Houston Texans)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Yes, I would draft LeSean McCoy over Arian Foster in a PPR draft. LeSean McCoy had an outstanding season, definitely high-level RB1 status. You obviously can’t go wrong either way, as Foster proved that 2010 was no fluke. I wouldn’t have a problem if somebody drafted Foster over McCoy either. They’re both huge weapons in their offenses. McCoy can just rank up those receptions a little bit more.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—In a standard format, I would take Arian Foster ahead of LeSean McCoy, and while I’d consider pulling the trigger on McCoy over Foster in a PPR league, I would probably stick with Foster in both scenarios, at least in 2012. Both players are elite talents at their positions. Foster bounced back from two hamstring injuries early in the season and proved that he wasn’t a one-year wonder. I think Foster and McCoy are close in terms of talent and playmaking ability, I just think that Foster fits the Houston Texans zone running scheme like a glove and he plays behind a much better O-line. While McCoy had a stellar individual 2011 season, the Eagles offense as a whole was inconsistent and didn’t perform to their potential. I expect a full offseason will lead to a number of adjustments and that could impact McCoy’s production, particularly his rushing scores.

2.  WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos) posted four catches for 204 yards and scored the game-winning touchdown in last week’s AFC Wild Card Round game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Was his performance a sign that Thomas can eventually become a WR1 in fantasy football?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—I don’t think Demaryius Thomas, or any wide receiver for that matter, can be regarded as a true WR1 with Tim Tebow as his quarterback. While Thomas has the skill set to be a great fantasy receiver, it’s too soon to project him quite that high. If he changes teams in the future, then the possibility is there. I think everyone would like to see him duplicate last week’s production several more times so we know he can be consistent.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—After it looked like Eric Decker was Tim Tebow’s favorite target, Demaryius Thomas emerged over the last six or seven games of the season as the “one.” He certainly stepped up last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and while he only caught four balls, he totaled over 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns. His game-winning touchdown on the first play of overtime was a thing of beauty. Heading into 2012, I think Thomas will be ranked in the top 25 based on what we saw from him this season, however the situation with Tebow in Denver is too uncertain. I’m still not convinced that John Elway and John Fox are completely sold on Tebow as their quarterback of the future, and frankly, he’s hard to project from week to week. It would be premature to project Thomas as a WR1 with some many question marks surrounding Tebow and his development in Denver. This will be one storyline to follow in the offseason. 

 

3.  The Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, and San Francisco 49ers return to action this week in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Which of these four teams has the best chance of winning their matchup?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones— New England has the easiest matchup on paper. All of the other bye teams face pretty stellar opponents. Of course, as we’ve seen so many times, you can’t discount the Denver Broncos. The fact of the matter is, New England has already beaten the Broncos in Denver. Regardless of what Tim Tebow does in a favorable matchup for him, unless the Patriots uncharacteristically make a lot of mistakes on offense, Tebow can’t out duel Tom Brady.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—The New England Patriots playing at home on Saturday against the Denver Broncos seems as close to a “sure bet” that we have among the four Divisional Round contests this weekend.  I’m not saying that a Broncos win would require divine intervention, only that Tom Brady and the 13-3 Patriots are super motivated to shake off back-to-back playoff losses at home to the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets with a win not to mention putting an end to Tebow-mania (at least for now). Bill Belichick knows what worked against Denver when the teams met in Week 15 and he surely studied the mistakes that Pittsburgh made last weekend. Full “scheme” ahead for Belichick, Brady and the Patriots.

 

Who Would You Rather Own: Looking Ahead to 2012?

QB Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals) or QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Matt Ryan. For starters, Matt Ryan has a much easier schedule on tap in 2012. If Julio Jones can put together a healthy campaign in 2012 and Tony Gonzalez has another solid season left in him, Ryan will have a lot of weapons once again. The Falcons say they will examine Michael Turner’s role for next year. That could mean a change to significantly more passing plays, which bodes well for Ryan as a fantasy starter.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Matt Ryan.  I have to choose Matt Ryan in 2012 because he has two outstanding receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones, and veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez continues to be a fantasy factor. Ryan threw more this past season and with the news that the Atlanta Falcons are “re-evaluating” Michael Turner’s role in the offense, a shift toward a more pass-heavy offense could be in the works. Still, I find it hard to get excited about Ryan as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, though I admit I might still have visions of his horrible performance against the Giants in last week’s Wild Card matchup. As far as Andy Dalton is concerned, he proved to be a great fit for the Cincinnati Bengals offensive scheme. He should be a solid fantasy QB2 with a full offseason of development. Hopefully the Bengals use the draft picks they scored from the Carson Palmer deal wisely and bring in some additional weapons.

 

RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings) or RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Adrian Peterson. This was actually a tough call for me. At this point, the future looks brighter for Jamaal Charles who still has his whole career ahead of him. Peterson, meanwhile, is going to start heading towards the twilight of his career soon. There’s a major question mark as to how he will return in 2012. How many games will he miss? In terms of 2012, Peterson is still the more talented running back and still the cornerstone for Minnesota. I like Charles more long term and Peterson more just for 2012.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Jamaal Charles. My first inclination would be to avoid both guys until there is proof that both guys are fully recovered from their injuries. That’s unlikely to be the case with Adrian Peterson, whose late-season injury puts him at risk of missing the start of the 2012 regular season. The Vikings report that Peterson’s surgery was successful and he’s already ditched the crutches, which is great news, however his recovery is still a long process and we can’t forget that he damaged both his ACL and MCL. Peterson probably falls to the second round barring a miracle, ahead-of-schedule recovery, so if you draft him, then you probably will have to grab Toby Gerhart no later than Round 7 or draft serious bench depth at the position. All reports indicate that Jamaal Charles is well on the road to recovery from his torn ACL, and he should be good to go when camp opens. Hopefully he hasn’t lost the speed and quickness that are his strengths. While we’re at it, let’s also hope that Romeo Crennel and his team don’t waste time messing with Charles and use him to his fullest potential as long as he’s healthy. 

WR Vincent Jackson (San Diego Chargers) or WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—Larry Fitzgerald. This one is slightly pending based on if the San Diego Chargers re-sign Vincent Jackson. Larry Fitzgerald needs a talented quarterback in the worst way, but look at his numbers with awful quarterbacks. He is the most talented wide receiver in the league and every-week WR1 no matter who is throwing him the ball. Jackson is no slouch either, and he has a better quarterback. Fitzgerald is more of an integral piece of his offense, though, compared to Jackson.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—Larry Fitzgerald. I owned both players in fantasy leagues this season and while Larry Fitzgerald had the occasional unproductive game, I never wrestled with the decision to bench him the way I regularly did with Vincent Jackson. Anyone who owned Jackson knows that his season alternated between stud and dud, with the bad games outweighing the productive games. The quarterback situation in Arizona isn’t as favorable as we hoped it would be, however a lot can happen over the offseason and I trust Fitzgerald to make the best of the hand that’s dealt him—whether it’s Kevin Kolb, John Skelton or another signal caller. Jackson seems to have had an epiphany of sorts similar to DeSean Jackson’s postseason mea culpa. It looks like he might re-sign with the San Diego Chargers or accept a franchise tag in the hopes of a more productive 2012 and more money down the road.

 

RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo Bills) or RB C.J. Spiller (Buffalo Bills)?

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—C.J. Spiller. I’m throwing the one-year fluke card down on Fred Jackson. Sure, he was awesome in the first half of 2011. He will continue to be a steady and decent RB2 in 2012, however C.J. Spiller has more flash and superstar capabilities. All he really needed was an extended chance to get comfortable with the game. It will be interesting to see how this battle plays out in camp. While I expect Jackson will win the battle in camp, Spiller will be the better fantasy option over the course of the season.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—C.J. Spiller. I feel disloyal picking C.J. Spiller over Fred Jackson because I’ve been higher on Jackson than many over the past few seasons. He’s delivered great return on investment for fantasy owners who consistently undervalued him. I sure hope that Buffalo does the right thing and rewards him with a nice contract over the offseason. After another unimpressive start to open the season and some growing pains over the course, Spiller finally showed signs that he can be a legitimate featured back in the NFL. He’s got mad skills and huge upside, and if he can stay healthy and continue to develop, then Spiller would be the more exciting player to have on your roster.  I would caution fantasy owners not to overdraft Spiller based on his late-season productivity. We need to see him deliver on a consistent basis.  I would not be averse to having either guy on my roster, it would just depend on the flow of the draft and who else was on the board at the time of my pick. 

 

Fantasy True or False?

The New York Giants will upset the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers on Sunday.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—False. The Green Bay Packers are going to win this week. Everybody loves to predict the upset, especially when it comes against the defending world champions. The bottom line is the Giants do not have the secondary to contain Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Lambeau. The game will be a shootout because the Green Bay defense won’t be able to stop New York from putting points on the board. The Pack Attack will advance.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—False.  The Green Bay Packers went 15-1 in the regular season and sat out last week with a bye, and suddenly it seems that everyone and his brother (or sister) is ready to throw down on the New York Giants. Yes, the Giants defense effectively shut down the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday, and yes, Eli Manning is playing at a very high level, but I’m not ready to declare Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay dead on arrival. The secondaries of both teams can be beaten on any given Sunday, and while this game has the makings of another shootout and the Giants nearly pulled out a win in Week 13, I’m expecting Rodgers and the Packers offense to be just a little bit better when it counts.

 

The San Francisco 49ers will not score a red-zone touchdown against the New Orleans Saints

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—False. The 49ers are finally going to be able to cure what’s been ailing them and punch in a goaline touchdown this week. Will they do it a lot? No. San Francisco will only defeat the New Orleans Saints if they can contain Drew Brees and that pass attack. Alex Smith needs to be efficient and they must cash in on multiple red-zone chances. They will get at least one for sure.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—False. The New Orleans Saints are a lot of things, but a shutdown defense isn’t one of them. While the San Francisco 49ers finished the regular season as the league’s No. 30 ranked red-zone offense, they converted on six-of-nine opportunities over their last three games. On the opposite side of the ball, the Saints ranked No. 28 in red-zone defense and gave up four scores in four red-zone possessions to the Detroit Lions last week. Hard to imagine that Alex Smith and the Niners won’t get at least one of their own this weekend. 

 

QB Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos) will score at least 30 fantasy points on Saturday.

Bruno Boys Jimbo Jones—False. The Tim Tebow magical ride is finally going to come to an end on Saturday night at New England. It’s still a favorable matchup for Tebow, who should score around 25 points. He’s a pretty good fantasy playoff option for your lineup. The Patriots should have the ball for the majority of the game, which will ultimately keep Tebow from repeating last week’s fantastic totals.

Bruno Boys Allie Fontana—False. Tim Tebow had a season-high 31 fantasy points in the Denver Broncos surprising win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in last Sunday’s AFC Wildcard game. He was also the first quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards against the Steelers all season. While Tebow has been a solid fantasy performer more often than not this season, I think he comes back down to earth this week against the New England Patriots and another guy who knows something about winning—and I’m not talking about Charlie Sheen. You can be sure that Bill Belichick won’t allow Tebow to have all kinds of time to make a downfield throw to an open Demaryius Thomas. If you’re playing in a postseason fantasy league, then by all means, use Tebow. Just expect a performance in the range of 20-22 fantasy points rather than 30-plus.