Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

So you find yourself in the middle of a fantasy football draft and so far things are going great. You’ve got some great running backs, a stud quarterback and some awesome receivers. So the next move, clearly, is to take a tight end right? Or perhaps you’re in the middle of the draft and you just saw a run a tight ends. You need one, but you don’t want to reach to just to get one so selecting defense/special teams is the way to go, isn’t it? Well, in this article, Bruno Boys Cory will take a look at the debate on whether you should select a tight end higher than a defense/special teams or vice versa. He will also take a look at how each affects scoring, where they’re typically found in drafts and the pros and cons to both. For analysis puproses, he will be comparing standard scoring from Yahoo! and ESPN leagues based on 2009 statistics. Since there is no “standard” scoring for DEF/ST (it is different in pretty much all leagues) he will use two of the top sites to make a comparison.

To get things started let’s take a quick look at the top five tight ends ESPN and Yahoo! standard scoring leagues.

ESPN Tight Ends

1. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers) — 168 points
2. Dallas Clark (Indianapolis Colts) — 163 points
3. Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers) — 156 points
4. Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles) — 137 points
5. Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons) — 117 points

Yahoo! Tight Ends

1. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers) — 174 points
2. Dallas Clark (Indianapolis Colts) — 171 points
3. Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers) — 163 points
4. Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles) — 145 points
5. Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons) — 122 points

There is no change in the order but you can see Yahoo! offers a slight advantage in terms of points (this is universal amongst all skill positions at Yahoo!, however, so do not think to value tight ends any higher in Yahoo! leagues than ESPN). What you can see here is the massive drop off in points in each league format from the top player to the fifth player. There’s a 51-point difference in ESPN and 52-point difference in Yahoo!.

Now let’s take a look at the top five defenses in ESPN and Yahoo! standard scoring leagues.

ESPN DEF/ST

1. Philadelphia Eagles — 196 points
2. Green Bay Packers — 194 points
3. San Francisco 49ers — 191 points
4. New York Jets — 185 points
5. New Orleans Saints — 181 points

Yahoo DEF/ST

t-1. New Orleans Saints — 181 points
t-1. San Francisco 49ers — 181 points
t-1. New York Jets — 181 points
4. Philadelphia Eagles — 175 points
5. Green Bay Packers — 174 points

What you see here, aside from ESPN scoring higher than Yahoo!, is that the discrepancy from the top defense to the fifth-best defense is not nearly as much as the drop off at the tight end position. We also see that across the board the DEF/STs are scoring higher than the tight ends. Yet, if you look at the average draft position (ADP) in any league provider, especially in ESPN and Yahoo! standard, where you see more common drafting strategies than in custom leagues, tight ends have higher ADPs than DEF/STs. But should this be the case?

With the tight end position being considered a skill position some fantasy football owners value them in similar regard to wide receivers. It makes sense considering they run routes, catch passes and have similar physical attributes as wide receivers. The other reason why tight ends are selected higher is that it’s just one player. It’s easy to monitor the player’s potential value based off seasons past and the teammates he has, as compared to a DEF/ST, which relies on 11, and in most cases more because of formation subs, defensive players in addition to the players on special teams. Altogether, a DEF/ST could feature anywhere from 15 to 35 players, and that’s a lot of guys to keep track of.

Another argument in favor of drafting a tight end first is that the rarity of the elite ones makes them a hot commodity, similar to the shortstop position in fantasy baseball. However, does that mean you use a high draft pick on a guy because he is a rarity? On one hand you get one of a few elite players at that position, thus giving you a leg up on the rest of your competitiors. On the other hand to select an elite tight end, such as Davis, Clark or Gates, you must use a high draft pick to take a guy that will get you around 150-170 points, and using that same draft pick on an elite DEF/ST or a really good WR2 has the potential of getting you anywhere from 180-200 points.

The tight end position is such a fickle position where the top players generate their points mainly on touchdowns. Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys is an elite tight end in the NFL but he averages just 3.8 touchdowns a season. Can you justify using a fifth or sixth round draft pick on a skill-position player that may only score three touchdowns? I don’t see how you could do so unless you’re in a PPR, but that is a whole different discussion.

So basically the big thing here is position rarity versus potential points, and in that case there is no right or wrong answer. A lot of it depends on the league you’re in (see below) but I prefer to select a DEF/ST before a tight end unless an elite tight end falls into my lap in a round that I can justify taking him.

The discussion of tight ends vs. DEF/STs can go in many different directions. The first thing you need to do upon registering your team for a league is to check its scoring and pay attention to how it is done for defenses. Does your fantasy football league reward six points for a defensive touchdown? How about four, or even none? How many points do you get for your defense shutting out a team? What are the different scoring levels on points allowed? Knowing how your league is scored could be the deciding factor in determining where to value tight ends, DEF/STs and which position you should select higher.

So what are your thoughts Bruno Boys Nation? Do you prefer to select a Tight End higher than a DEF/ST or the other way around? Let us know in the FORUMS.

————————

Don’t forget to head over to our Fantasy Football Message Board and sign-up for a FREE FORUM account. By doing so you will be able to talk fantasy football all season long.