Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Written by: James Burulcich
Edited by: Allie Fontana

Super Bowl XLVI is just a few days away and now is a good time to take a look back at the 2011 fantasy football season. We certainly had another great year full of surprises, sleepers, busts and Tebow. The lockout took the fun out of the offseason and for a long time it seemed that there might not be a 2011 NFL season. Fortunately that didn’t happen and before we know it, the 17 weeks of the regular season have come and gone.  I always feel a little bit of a letdown when the season winds down. In my “A Look Back at 2010” article, I nailed a few of my predictions including the continued success of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots; the lack of consistency among wide receivers; and that fans of the New York Jets should temper expectations for the team in 2011. Here’s a link to the article in its entirety for those of you who missed it: http://www.brunoboys.net/entry/10-things-i-learned-this-season-a-look-back-at-2010/.  I’m confident that I’ll be right about my observations and predictions for the year ahead. In the meantime, here are 10 things that I learned this season:

 

1.  Enter Tebow.

Do you think that I would start a “year that was” recollection blog without reminding everyone of possibly the single greatest story in NFL history? Five weeks into the 2011 season and the Denver Broncos had a 1-4 record and most people thought they were already out of playoff contention. Then like a whirlwind, Tim Tebow got his opportunity and went 7-4 as a starter, led his team to the AFC West title and eliminated the reigning AFC Division champion Pittsburgh Steelers from the playoffs. Sadly, a season like Tebow had—one full of comeback after comeback—surely won’t repeat itself. I believe that Tebow will enter the 2012 season as Denver’s starter; however the team will replace him before midseason. Let someone who truly believes in Tebow overdraft him in 2012 fantasy drafts. Don’t be the sucker.

2.  Quarterbacks Abound.

Can you believe that we saw 10 quarterbacks throw for over 4,000 yards in 2011? Better yet, six signal callers went for over 4,600! Compare those numbers to 2010’s, when only five accomplished that feat, including Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer. It’s impossible to forget that Manning didn’t play a down this past season and Palmer landed in Oakland shortly before Week 7. Why does this matter? It’s simple. The potential exists for 12 quarterbacks to throw for over 4,000 yards next season, which in turn begs the question, just how important will it be for fantasy owners to draft a top-tier quarterback in 2012? I expect that more quarterbacks will be given full reign over new look, wide open offenses. If that’s the case, then I’m just not sure that grabbing a quarterback in the first round will be worth it. 

3.  R.I.P. Franchise Running Backs.

We’ve seen this coming for a long time haven’t we? This season finally showed us what we have known for a while now—the franchise quarterback is quickly becoming an endangered species. First let’s begin with the big name running backs who sustained injuries that caused them to miss one or more games or the majority of the season and makes fantasy owners question our trust in them for 2012: Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Rashard Mendenhall, Fred Jackson, Jahvid Best, Peyton Hillis, Beanie Wells, Arian Foster, Knowshon Moreno and DeMarco Murray. Come to think of it, it might have been easier to name the guys who didn’t get injured. Basically, once you get past Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, and Maurice Jones-Drew, the running back consistency pool thins out rather quickly in next season.

4.  Vick Squared.

Last year many fantasy owners were enamored with Michael Vick’s fantasy production. He could run and throw with such explosion, that some thought he was potentially the greatest fantasy weapon to ever take the field. But he had a weakness—durability. Enter Cam Newton. Like Vick, Newton has the arm and the legs, however he also has the frame and that gives him a vicious combination of skills, skills that would instill fear in Liam Neeson. Not only did he break the rookie passing yardage record with 4,051 yards, he also broke the quarterback rushing touchdown mark with an astonishing 14 scores. I would be shocked if Newton isn’t the third quarterback selected in 2012 drafts behind only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.

5.  The Beast is Back.

Most of us forgot just what kind of running back the Seattle Seahawks traded for when they acquired Marshawn Lynch in 2010. This year he showed us that there was more to him than a young man with a funky hairdo and questionable decision-making skills. Lynch proved that he was a powerful and relentless running back—a beast if you will. While he got off to a slow start, head coach Pete Carroll stuck with him and he didn’t disappoint. Lynch put together a streak off 11 straight games with at least one touchdown or 100-plus yards and he capped off the season by being the first back to do both against the vaunted San Francisco 49ers defense. Just a few years ago Lynch was a late first-/early second-round fantasy pick. I believe that he’s reclaimed that value in 2012.

6.  Tight End? You Sure?

I’m not sure the New England Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski and New Orleans Saints’ Jimmy Graham are really tight ends. While we have seen tight ends have great seasons before as far as touchdowns go, these two guys really pushed the bar up another level in 2012. Not only were Gronkowski and Graham the two best tight ends by a significant margin; they also finished among the top-six wide receivers this season. They outscored such stand out receivers as Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White and Mike Wallace to name a few. With two of the league’s best quarterbacks throwing targeting them as their respective team’s first receiving option, I feel that they could be the second and third receivers off the board in 2012 drafts, behind only the next man.

7.  A Class of His Own.

Megatron. Need I say more? Calvin Johnson’s 2011 season started off with a vengeance. Just four weeks in and he had already hauled in eight touchdowns and made it look easy doing it. Though Johnson had a bit of a lull in the middle of the year, his fantasy owners were rewarded in the final weeks of the season. He scored four touchdowns in three games and racked up 200-plus receiving yards in two. In fact, he was so dominant that he finished a full 44 fantasy points ahead of the second best wide receiver. Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford proved that he can finish a season healthy for the first time in three years.  I believe Megatron’s ceiling is far from set. I firmly believe that Johnson will be the one to break the NFL single season record for receiving touchdowns (23) set by Randy Moss in 2007.

8.  Fall from Grace.

How could I possibly have a 2011 retrospective without mentioning the crosstown rival New York Jets? No one likes a bully and this season Jets head coach Rex Ryan was the bully who finally got punched square in the mouth. After yet another Super Bowl prediction, the luster on that tongue is finally wearing thin. The Jets needed to win the final two games of the regular season to reach the playoffs for the straight time. Unfortunately for the team’s fans, the Jets fell apart. Quarterback Mark Sanchez regressed, wide receiver Santonio Holmes visibly quit on his team, running back LaDainian Tomlinson blasted the team atmosphere on Showtime’s Inside the NFL, linebacker Bart Scott flipped the bird to the media and even rookie quarterback Greg McElroy said the team had a “corrupt mindset.” What did I miss? The endless bravado works when you manage to slide into the playoffs two years in a row despite never winning the AFC Championship or even your own division, however when you collapse under the pressure, the truth finally comes out. Jets fans fell for fool’s gold and are now left with a green ring around their fingers.

9.  Cruuuuzzzz.

Flashback to Monday, August 16, 2010. The New York Giants faced the New York Jets in Week 1 of the NFL preseason. In New York, these games always mean more than your standard preseason outing. The Giants were down 16-10 in the third quarter when an unknown wide receiver wearing No. 3 scored three touchdowns in the final 17:29 minutes. The wideout quickly fell back into obscurity. Twelve months later, Giants fans hammered general manager Jerry Reese for allowing wide receiver and Eli Manning’s safety net Steve Smith to walk and sign a free agent contract with hated NFC East rival Philadelphia Eagles. Fast forward five months, 82 catches, 1,536 yards and nine touchdowns later and we have a new star. Tim Tebow aside, the best story of the 2011 season belonged to Victor Cruz. The undrafted University of Massachusetts wide receiver burst on the scene and became the fantasy year’s greatest waiver wire addition. Now everyone knows his name and his dance, and I for one, hope that he salsas the Giants to their fourth Lombardi trophy.

10.  My 2012 Fantasy Sleeper Pick.

Michael Vick. Ugh. At the end of the 2010 fantasy season I picked Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo as my 2011 Sleeper Pick. And I’ll pick a member of the Philadelphia Eagles as my 2012 Sleeper pick.  The Eagles 2011“dream team” was anything but. Michael Vick battled injury, DeSean Jackson struggled with maturity and the new free agent acquisitions, namely Nnamdi Asomugha failed to live up to the hype. Despite falling well short of expectations, head coach Andy Reid managed to keep his job.  When it was apparent that the Eagles would almost certainly cut him loose after the season, his team responded despite falling short. Over the final three regular season games, Michael Vick put up three consecutive 20-point performances and showed flashes of the fantasy weapon that we fell in love with just one year ago. As much as I hate to say it, I trust Andy Reid. I believe him to be one of the best coaches in the NFL and I think that he will turn this team around in a big way in 2012. Vick played so poorly this year that I believe he will fall to the third round or later in next season’s fantasy drafts. He’ll be considered a steal as the season goes on. While I wouldn’t take Vick early in the first round or two because of injury concerns, if I can get him in the fourth round of fantasy drafts and actually pair him with other studs then I am all in.