Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Lane Rizzardini
- Edited by Marc Caviglia

Welcome to the third edition of Touch Me, Baby, an in depth look at two very important and very sexy NFL statistics: Targets and Touches.

After a week in which we are still figuring out some team’s play calling tendencies, we also had some important injuries to big names that sent many scrambling for the waiver wire in search of cheap fantasy football points. Touches can help us identify handcuffs and which guys are in line for big production should the No.1 option go down. The Washington Redskins, St. Louis Rams, and Denver Broncos all have at least somewhat unclear backfield situations past their starting running back and you can use a target and touch report to see who could be in line for an extended role moving forward (provided the starter misses action).

Each week we’ll break down the numbers in graph and bullet form to show which players are seeing the most opportunity in their respective offenses. So slip into something comfortable and get ready to be touched, baby!

**Stat Note: the stat referred to as “Plays” is found by calculating (Carries + Targets)/Total Team Plays**

Running Backs Touches & Targets

	Players	Plays	Carries	Carry%	3-Wk Carry%	Targets	Target%	3-Wk Target %	RZ Plays
1	Michael Turner	33	30	60%	48%	3	1%	4%	10
2	Chris Johnson	33	32	78%	73.50%	1	6%	11%	10
3	Cedric Benson	30	27	73%	70%	3	8%	5%	5
4	Adrian Peterson	30	23	77%	81%	7	20.50%	18.50%	3
5	Peyton Hillis	30	22	76%	50%	8	33%	17%	5
6	Darren McFadden	28	25	76%	74%	3	9%	15%	6
7	Frank Gore	28	15	100%	87%	13	31%	24%	0
8	Maurice Jones-Drew	25	22	67%	63%	3	10%	7.50%	0
9	Thomas Jones	22	19	49%	50%	3	11%	6.50%	3
10	Arian Foster	22	17	77%	78.50%	5	15.50%	10%	4
11	Mike Tolbert	21	17	81%	44%	4	7.50%	4%	4
12	LaDainian Tomlinson	20	15	52%	45%	5	18%	19%	4
13	Ahmad Bradshaw	20	15	75%	64%	5	11%	10%	4
14	Ray Rice	20	15	55.50%	61%	5	16%	14%	2
15	Justin Forsett	20	17	81%	50%	3	9%	8%	2
16	Rashard Mendenhall	19	19	59%	67%	0	0%	5%	3
17	Marion Barber	18	17	63%	52%	1	3%	5%	2
18	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	17	16	50%	38%	1	4%	1%	2
19	Joseph Addai	17	13	59%	54.50%	4	9%	10%	3
20	Jason Snelling	16	14	28%	33%	2	6.50%	7.50%	1
21	Kenneth Darby	16	14	38%	21%	2	5.50%	2%	2
22	Laurence Maroney	15	12	67%	15%	3	5%	2.50%	4
23	Jamaal Charles	15	12	31%	33%	3	11%	6.50%	1
24	LeSean McCoy	15	11	52%	49%	4	13%	13%	1
25	Pierre Thomas	15	9	56%	71%	6	16%	15%	2
26	Tim Hightower	14	11	42%	58%	3	12%	9%	0
27	Beanie Wells	14	14	54%	23%	0	0%	0%	2
28	Marshawn Lynch	14	13	54%	45%	1	3.50%	4%	2
29	Ronnie Brown	13	11	48%	42%	2	4.50%	6%	3
30	Matt Forte	13	11	61%	56%	2	7.50%	17%	6
31	Maurice Morris	13	6	31.50%	17%	7	16%	7%	1
32	Cadillac Williams	13	6	28.50%	65%	7	22.50%	15.50%	0
33	Steven Jackson	12	10	27%	62%	2	5.50%	14%	1
34	Keith Toston	11	11	30%	13.50%	0	0%	0%	3
35	Brandon Jackson	11	7	47%	48%	4	9%	7%	2
36	Jahvid Best	11	7	37%	57.50%	4	9%	20%	1
37	Correll Buckhalter	11	4	22%	26%	6	10.50%	9%	1
38	DeAngelo Williams	10	10	41.50%	53%	0	0%	3%	1
39	Shonn Greene	10	10	34.50%	36.50%	0	0%	4%	4
40	Jonathan Stewart	10	8	33%	26%	2	6%	3%	1

 

Running Back Notes:

1. Steven Jackson’s groin injury was one of the biggest stories after Week 3. Luckily it is only a strain and he’s currently day-to-day and could play in Week 4; however, it did bring up an important question: who is Jackson’s handcuff? The touch numbers tell us there could be two, as both Kenneth Darby and Keith Tolston were given double-digit carries in Jackson’s absence last Sunday. Darby was handed the rock slightly more often (14 to 11) and is used more in the passing game, but they both received multiple red zone looks so neither is really the clear cut favorite.

2. For the second consecutive week Marshawn Lynch received over 50-percent of the carries for the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Thought to be dead, Lynch actually looked, well let’s say “useable”. He had 79 yards on 13 carries for an excellent six yards per carry average against the New England Patriots last week and for whatever reason (trade bait?) has been given the full load. His upside remains low because he plays for Buffalo; however, there are worse options out there, and if Lynch gets traded (to say the Green Bay Packers) he could be a decent RB2 option.

3. With 76-percent of the carries and a top five spot on this week’s running back board, Peyton Hillis cemented himself as the feature back for the Cleveland Browns. Hillis was already the preferred target in the passing game and was getting the nod at the goalline over Browns’ single-game rushing record holder Jerome Harrison. Now ,Harrison’s thigh problems have allowed to Hillis to take all the carries for himself and he doesn’t look ready to give them up. Harrison can actually be dropped in most formats while Hillis should have been owned prior to last week.

4. The Atlanta Falcons like to run the ball a lot, which is how you end up with two running backs in the top-20 for touches. They ran it 50 times on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, which in this pass-happy NFL would raise eyebrows if they were passing attempts, let alone running plays. This seems like great news for Jason Snelling owners who are holding out hope for value even with Turner healthy, but even in head coach Mike Smith’s run-heavy offense the team won’t run this often, which means less carries for Snelling, not Turner.

 

Full story

- Written by Lane Rizzardini
- Edited by Marc Caviglia

Welcome to the second edition of Touch Me, Baby, an in depth look at two very important and very sexy NFL statistics: Targets and Touches.

Week 2 brought some interesting developments, as midgame injuries to Michael Turner and Ryan Mathews led to high “play” totals for Jason Snelling and Mike Tolbert. Some might see that and perhaps think Snelling or Tolbert would be bigger parts of their respective offenses than we thought. However after doing some research we see that Michael Turner only had a minor groin pull and “could have gone back in the game” if the Atlanta Falcons weren’t blowing out the Arizona Cardinals. Tolbert actually will bring some value while Mathews recovers from a high ankle sprain that will likely keep him out one month. We will keep you posted throughout the week. Again though, this isn’t a full-fledged changing of the guard.

Each week we’ll break down the numbers in graph and bullet form to show which players are seeing the most opportunity in their respective offenses. So slip into something comfortable and get ready to be touched, baby!

**Stat Note: the stat referred to as “Plays” is found by calculating (Carries + Targets)/Total Team Plays**

Running Backs Touches & Targets

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

	Players	Plays	Carries	Carry%	3-Wk Carry%	Targets	Target%	3-Wk Target %	RZ Plays
1	Adrian Peterson	36	28	85.00%	70.50%	8	22%	17.50%	9
2	Darren McFadden	34	30	75%	72.50%	4	18%	17.50%	6
3	Cadillac Williams	32	27	79.50%	76.50%	5	21%	13%	3
4	Jahvid Best	31	17	65%	66%	14	31%	25%	2
5	Frank Gore	29	20	77%	82%	9	28%	21%	6
6	Jason Snelling	29	24	53%	37%	5	15.50%	8%	6
7	Knowshon Moreno	28	24	63.00%	62%	4	11.50%	9%	7
8	Pierre Thomas	26	18	75%	75.50%	8	21%	15%	5
9	Cedric Benson	24	23	74%	68%	1	3%	3.50%	3
10	Rashard Mendenhall	24	23	70%	70%	1	6%	7%	4
11	Steven Jackson	24	19	90.50%	91%	5	20%	16%	4
12	Joseph Addai	23	20	46.50%	56%	3	11.50%	11%	2
13	Thomas Jones	23	22	56.50%	51%	1	3.50%	4%	4
14	Arian Foster	23	19	79%	79%	4	8%	7%	4
15	Chris Johnson	22	16	73%	70.50%	6	17%	19%	5
16	Ray Rice	22	16	69.50%	64%	6	15%	13%	0
17	DeAngelo Williams	20	17	51.50%	58%	3	10%	4.50%	1
18	LeSean McCoy	20	16	55%	48%	4	12%	13%	3
19	Jerome Harrison	19	16	61.50%	51%	3	9.50%	6%	1
20	Ahmad Bradshaw	18	17	68%	60.50%	1	4%	9%	0
21	Marshawn Lynch	17	17	53%	41%	0	0%	4%	0
22	Mike Tolbert	17	16	53%	31%	1	3.50%	2%	4
23	LaDainian Tomlinson	17	11	34%	41.50%	6	20%	19.50%	3
24	Donald Brown	17	16	37%	30%	1	4%	5%	3
25	Shonn Greene	16	15	47%	38%	1	3%	6%	2
26	Matt Forte	16	10	52.50%	54%	6	20.50%	20%	3
27	Clinton Portis	14	13	76.50%	77.50%	1	2.50%	6%	8
28	Ronnie Brown	14	13	45%	40%	1	6.50%	8%	1
29	Correll Buckhalter	14	11	29%	27%	3	8.50%	6%	3
30	Rashad Jennings	14	9	37.50%	22.50%	5	12%	11%	1
31	Maurice Jones-Drew	13	12	50%	60%	1	2%	6%	0
32	Marion Barber	13	11	55%	45%	2	4%	5%	3
33	Tim Hightower	13	11	84%	70.50%	2	6.50%	8%	0
34	Brandon Jackson	12	11	41%	48%	1	3.50%	5%	0
35	Jamaal Charles	12	11	28%	34%	1	3.50%	4%	1
36	Peyton Hillis	11	8	31%	35%	3	9.50%	11.50%	2
37	Felix Jones	10	7	35%	35.50%	3	6%	5%	0
38	Ricky Williams	10	10	35%	43%	0	0%	2%	2
39	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	10	10	50%	35%	0	0%	0%	2
40	John Kuhn	10	9	33%	18%	1	3.50%	1.50%	0
41	Fred Jackson	10	9	28%	26.50%	1	5.50%	9.50%	2
42	Reggie Bush	10	5	21%	14%	5	13%	15%	3
43	Kevin Faulk	10	5	25%	18.50%	5	14%	15.50%	0
44	Michael Turner	9	9	20%	40%	0	0%	1%	2
45	Jonathan Stewart	9	8	24%	23%	1	3.50%	1.50%	1
46	Justin Forsett	9	8	40%	35%	1	3%	7%	0
47	Mike Goodson	9	5	15%	9%	4	14%	12.50%	2
48	Darren Sproles	9	5	16.50%	17%	4	14%	10%	1
49	Earnest Graham	9	3	9%	14%	6	25%	11%	3
50	Mike Sellers	7	1	6%	2.50%	6	16%	13%	1

Running Back Notes:

1. Shonn Greene owners must have breathed a sigh of relief after seeing the second year back finish Week 2 with the team lead in rushing attempts over LaDainian Tomlinson, though Tomlinson finished with more yards. The most important number from Greene’s Sunday stat line was zero, which is the number of times he fumbled, a big improvement from the two he put on the ground in Week 1. Greene will still be splitting time with the youthful-looking Tomlinson for the time being, but there’s a decent chance we see LT2 break down as the season continues, giving Greene the edge over the long haul.

2. Probably the most head-scratching thing to notice about the Week 2 graphs is Maurice Jones-Drew’s one fewer “play” than his back up Rashad Jennings. Jennings racked up five receptions to Jones-Drew’s one, which made the difference in final “play” totals, but Jennings got progressively more carries as the game went on and by the end was basically the lead back. They were getting blown out by the San Diego Chargers, however, there’s a decent chance Jones-Drew’s knee is still bugging him and they limited his carries to keep him healthy. As his knee gets stronger his snap count will rise. Count On It!

3. Jonathan Stewart finally got some carries this season, but like Week 1 found himself at a severe deficit to backfield mate DeAngelo Williams. Williams currently holds a 58%-23% lead in workload percentage, on the ground and in the air. To make things worse, this Mike Goodson character just showed up out of nowhere with nine “plays” last week, two in the red zone. Stewart is a good buy low at the moment because he is simply too talented to keep caged like this, but consider benching him if you have decent options. Wait for John Fox to realize Stewart gives Carolina the best chance to win and then plug him into your fantasy football lineup.

4. With no touchdowns the first two weeks, Ray Rice owners are not feeling too brash about their top four pick’s performance up till now. Patience, fellow fans of the 2009 Sleeper of the Year, I too feel your pain but it will not continue. Rice has played two harsh defenses in the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals, who both ranked in the top eight in run defense last season. Besides, he wasn’t going to give you a ton of touchdowns anyway. He brings elite skills (5.44 y/c vs. Bengals) and a huge workload (64% of the carries, 78 receptions in 2009) which he is already giving you. A match up against the Cleveland Browns this week should help turn those touches into touchdowns.

Full story

- Written by Lane Rizzardini
- Edited by Marc Caviglia

Welcome to the first edition of Touch Me, Baby, an in depth look at two very important and very sexy NFL statistics: Targets and Touches.

The idea is simple: a player cannot score fantasy football points if he doesn’t get the ball. Regardless of the sport, opportunity is everything in fantasy sports. You wouldn’t draft an outfielder who doesn’t get at bats, and you wouldn’t draft a basketball player who wasn’t getting minutes. Thus the most important numbers to look at on a NFL stat sheet is not yards or touchdowns, but carries and targets. This may seem straight forward, however, many times the amount of potential touches a player could have had, or is in line for, goes overlooked by the average fan.

Each week we’ll break down the numbers in graph and bullet form to show which players are seeing the most opportunity in their respective offenses. So slip into something comfortable and get ready to be touched, baby!

**Stat Note: the stat referred to as “Plays” is found by calculating (Carries + Targets)/Total Team Plays**

Full story