Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist,Josh Fasulo, the owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production. The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

In Week 5, Miles Austin was the talk of the league, hauling in 10 balls on 15 targets for an astounding 250 yards and 2 scores.  The question became, was it a fluke?  Well, in Week 7, after the Cowboys’ bye, Austin proved he is for real: 6 receptions on 8 targets for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns.  That’s 23 targets, 16 catches, 421 yards and 4 TDs in 2 games! Austin, though, isn’t the only receiver starting to prove his fantasy worth.

In Week 7, Sidney Rice led the NFL in targets (14) and receptions (11), and it amounted to 136 yards.  Over the past 3 games, Rice has become Brett Favre’s favorite go-to guy (26 targets, 20 catches, 373 yards).  In Chicago, Devin Hester is becoming the clear-cut number one receiver.  In the 2 weeks since the Bears’ bye, Hester has been targeted a team-high 19 times, and has hauled in 14 passes for 184 yards and a score.  There may also be a clear-cut number one in San Francisco, but he doesn’t always line up on the flank.  With Alex Smith taking over in the second half against Houston, Vernon Davis ended up with 7 catches on 11 targets for 93 yards and 3 scores.  Davis has been targeted 23 times in the 49ers’ last 2 games, and he seemingly has a rapport with the 49ers’ new (and former) starting QB.  Hakeem Nicks – spotlighted in last week’s “Rookie on the Rise” – is becoming a consistent target for Eli Manning and the Giants.  He scored again in Week 7 (on a fluky play), was targeted 7 times and had 4 receptions.  That gives him 21 targets, 13 catches, 243 yards and 3 TDs over the last 3.  Of the previous four players mentioned, note that Hester is the only one with a favorable Week 8 match-up (home versus Cleveland). 

While some guys are playing their way onto fantasy starting rosters, a few big names didn’t make the top 50 targets on Sunday (and cost some of us a W).  Hines Ward, the league’s top wideout, had but 1 catch for 3 yards.  Dwayne Bowe, coming off a 14 target Week 6, was targeted just 5 times and had only 2 catches for 11 yards.  Thankfully, one of those went for 6.  Roy E. Williams, clearly no longer the top dog in Dallas – was he ever? – was thrown to only 5 times, and had just 1 reception for 16 yards.  Blah.  And it’s worth mentioning, no running back was targeted more than 6 times in Week 7.  Thus, despite his bye, Ray Rice still leads all RBs in targets over the last three weeks (19).

Injuries and idiocy from Week 7 may have impacted the fantasy football world as much as the stats and trends. Larry Johnson’s flagrant Tweet about his coach – and his downright horrific play (3.3 yards/touch) – may have cost him his job, and Jamaal Charles may finally get his shot after the Chiefs’ Week 8 bye.  The explosive Charles has only 18 touches over the past 3 games, but they’ve been good for 105 yards (5.8 yards/touch). Chris Cooley and Leon Washington both left their teams’ Week 7 games, and both are done for the year.  Fred Davis (10 targets, 8 reception, 78 yards, 1 TD) and Shonn Greene (19 touches, 144 yards, 2 TD) were and are the beneficiaries.  Week 8 may not be the week to deploy these guys – Davis and the Redskins have a bye, and Greene and the Jets face a stout Miami rush D (4th in the league, though they’ve allowed 7 rushing scores) – but both are worthy pick-ups for the fantasy playoff push.

Speaking of worthy pickups, if you “settled” for Cedric Benson in the middle-rounds of your fantasy draft, there’s a good chance you’re near the top of your league’s standings.  Benson had 37 touches, 189 yards and a TD in Week 7, and leads the league in touches over the past three weeks (84) and the season (174).  Benson’s past three weeks have amounted to 370 yards and 3 TDs, which is the same production DeAngelo Williams has had in that span on 11 fewer touches.  Steven Jackson also has 370 yards over his past three games, but hasn’t scored.

Finally, before you check out Week 7’s Targets & Touches grids, a word to those of you looking for receiver help in Week 8: Jacksonville and Tennessee, both coming off byes, match up this week in a showcase of the league’s two worst pass defenses.  Mike Sims-Walker is the top play here, but Torry Holt, Justin Gage, Nate Washington, Kenny Britt and even Mike Thomas are all worthy flex options.  Marcedes Lewis could be a decent bye-week fill-in at tight end as well.

Here are the Week 7 Targets and Touches grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

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::The Bruno Boys are proud to introduce our newest guest columnist Josh Fasulo. Josh is the owner of Fantasy Sports Shack and will be tackling a new weekly feature in which we take a deeper look at targets, touches, rookies and overlooked players. Enjoy and let us know if you have any suggestions::

TARGETS & TOUCHES

In Week 6, some of the expected superstars did their thing.  Larry Fitzgerald was targeted a league high 15 times, and it resulted in 13 catches, 100 yards and a score.  Andre Johnson hauled in 8 of 14 passes thrown his way for 135 yards.  Hines Ward had 12 targets, 8 receptions, 159 yards and a TD.  And then there were the New England Patriots, who finally got it going: Wes Welker (11 targets, 10 catches, 150 yards, 2 TD) and Randy Moss (10 targets, 8 catches, 129 yards, 3 TD). 

Sometimes the trends can be obvious, but other times, they are very telling of things to come.  The Cleveland Browns traded arguably their top player in Braylon Edwards (18 target, 8 receptions, 1 TD in two weeks with the Jets), and it has opened the door for scarcely owned rookie Mohamed Massaquoi.  In Week 6, Massoquoi caught 5 balls on 10 targets for 83 yards.  Over the past three weeks, the Browns’ new number one is 4th in the league with 29 targets.  He’s racked up 247 yards on 14 receptions in that span, but like the Cleveland offense in general, has struggled to find paydirt.  If only he had a decent quarterback…

Dwayne Bowe was in-and-out of his coach’s doghouse early in the year, but he’s the Chiefs’ top offensive weapon, and he and Matt Cassel seem to be finding a groove.  Cassel targeted Bowe 14 times on Sunday – which resulted in 6 receptions for 109 yards – and over his past three games, Bowe is 5th in the league in times thrown to (28).  This week’s matchup against San Diego’s 13th ranked pass defense isn’t great, but Bowe should see plenty of action, especially since the Chiefs running game has been hit or miss thus far.

Speaking of a running game, Carolina finally went back to what they do best.  DeAngelo Williams carried the ball 30 times, and Jonathan Stewart chipped in with 17 of his own for a whopping total of 47 carries!  Williams had 32 total touches for 172 yards and 2 TD.  Stewart’s touches all came on the ground, and he amassed 110 yards and a score.  Not a bad day in Pantherland, as the formula resulted in a victory.

Not a bad day for Maurice Jones-Drew, either.  After just 17 touches in Week 5, Jones-Drew led the league with 38 touches in Week 6 (33 rushes, 5 receptions) and was the top fantasy football running back, racking up 178 yards and finding the end zone on three separate occasions.  Not a huge surprise to see Jones-Drew doing well, as he was a majority top 5 pick.

A fairly significant surprise, however, was Laurence Maroney.  After Sammy Morris went down on the first possession, Maroney had 19 touches for New England (16 rushes, 3 receptions), and managed 133 yards and a touchdown.  Tough to project what this means for the future, as in the two weeks prior, Maroney totaled only 13 touches.  If Sammy Morris is incapacitated this week, Maroney should get another shot against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that ranks 31st against the run.

A few quick notes before you have a look at this week’s charts: Ray Rice was nasty (20 touches, 10 rushes, 10 receptions, 194 yards, 2 TD) and Willis McGahee, again, was not (7 touches, 7 carries, 3 yards).  Steve Slaton has the 3rd most touches over the past three weeks (67) and has averaged 110 yards and a score.  Justin Fargas had 24 touches in Week 6.  Word to the wise: stay away in less in desperation.  The Oakland Raiders backfield/offense is a mess, and Fargas is still the RB3 at the end of the day.  Michael Crabtree may start for the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.  That doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily be targeted any more than Josh Morgan has been (13 times in 2 games prior to bye).

Here are the Week 6 Targets and Touches grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

Full story

::The Bruno Boys are proud to introduce our newest guest columnist Josh Fasulo. Josh is the owner of Fantasy Sports Shack and will be tackling a new weekly feature in which we take a deeper look at targets, touches, rookies and overlooked players. Enjoy and let us know if you have any suggestions::

Fantasy football is all about the bottom line: production.  Yards and scores are all we care about.  But fielding a team of players who give you the best opportunity to accumulate those stats week-in and week-out is about more than just last week’s numbers.

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” evaluates how the week gone by can help project future production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the articles examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise” I will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up.  Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

Trends tell us that the more times a player is targeted and the more touches he gets, the more likely he is to consistently post solid numbers. Think about this: Bengals’ receiver Chris Henry had 92 yards in Week 5, however, he did it on just 3 catches and was targeted only 5 times.  Over the past three weeks, Henry has been targeted just 11 times, resulting in 6 catches for 147 yards and no touchdowns. Not great. That trend tells us not to expect much from him in Week 6.  On the flipside, Chad Ochocinco hasn’t put up huge stats over the past three weeks (172 yards, 2 TD), but he leads the league in targets over that span (32), and could be on the verge of breaking out.  In Week 5, he was targeted 10 times, and hauled in 7 balls for 94 yards.  In Week 6 against a mediocre Houston Texans secondary, if targeted at the same rate Ochocinco could easily break 100 yards and hit paydirt.

Speaking of breaking out, Miles Austin exploded in Week 5, leading the league in targets (15), catches (10), receiving yards (250) and TDs (2).  Due to Roy Williams’ injury, and based off his 8 target Week 4, 10 targets could have been expected, but no one could have seen this performance coming.  Don’t count on this kind of production every week, but the trend, coupled with inconsistent production from the rest of the Cowboy receivers, tells us that Austin could continue to post solid numbers when the Cowboys return from their Week 6 bye.  He’s a decent WR3/flex-option, and if the targets continue, a borderline WR2.

Joseph Addai never puts up stellar numbers, and everyone talks about his timeshare with Donald Brown, but Addai continues to get the ball.  In Week 5, he was 4th among running backs with 24 touches.  Over the past three weeks he’s averaged 19+ touches, 82 yards and 1 TD, whereas Brown averaged 11 touches, 64 yards and has scored just once.  When the Colts return from their Week 6 bye, Addai should continue to get the majority of the work.  As for using the touches trend to project Week 6, Knowshon Moreno (25 Week 5/62 over last three), Kevin Smith (23 Week 5/65 over last three) and Brandon Jacobs (22 Week 5/70 over last three) are all good plays with favorable matchups.

And though he doesn’t necessarily have a “favorable” matchup, don’t give up on Steve Slaton.  Slaton had 19 touches for 98 yards in Week 5, and over the past three weeks, he’s averaged 19 touches for 100 yards while scoring 2 touchdowns.  However, do be wary of Willis McGahee.  With just 2 touches in Week 5, and 15 over the past three weeks, McGahee is plummeting towards your leagues waiver wire.  It’s hard to explain why a guy who leads the league in total touchdowns (7 total – 5 rushing, 2 receiving) is riding the pine, but Ray Rice is obviously the man in Baltimore (52 touches over the last three weeks).  McGahee still has value as a goal-line back, but if he doesn’t score, he could put up a fantasy football donut.

Now it’s time to take a look at the Week 5 Targets & Touches Top 50.  Pay attention to the 3-week trends, and when evaluating your Week 6 starting roster, don’t forget to check matchups!

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