Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Thank you to all the Bruno Boys faithful who have found your way to my column throughout the 2009 season.  Without you, “Fasulo’s Forecaster” would not be possible.  This will mark the final installment of the Forecaster for the 2009 season.  We’ll review the year that was, and take a quick glimpse into 2010 with special “Rookie on the Rise” and “Mr. Overlooked” segments.  I hope this column has helped you in your quest to fantasy football greatness, and until next we meet, have a great new year!  - Josh Fasulo

TARGETS & TOUCHES

If we were all to go back to August and redraft our 2009 fantasy football teams, I’m sure a few things would be different.  A redraft might find the consensus top pick to be Chris Johnson, not Adrian Peterson.  Thomas Jones and Ray Rice would likely slide into the first round, and the likes of Brian Westbrook and Steve Slaton might be ignored altogether.  But, as my father-in-law likes to say, hindsight is twenty-twenty.

It didn’t take a crystal ball to draft surefire stars like Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson and Randy Moss.  Peterson finished the season fourth among running backs in touches (358), third in yards from scrimmage (1,825) and first in touchdowns (18).  Jones-Drew had a few huge games to go with a few duds, but there’s no denying his overall productivity: 365 touches, 1,765 yards, 16 TD.  As for Johnson and Moss, well, Johnson was the most targeted receiver in the NFL (171), and his numbers reflect as such: 101 receptions, 1,569 yards, 9 TD.  Moss (138) wasn’t targeted as frequently as the Houston Texans’ star, but his fantasy stat-line was comparable thanks to a league-leading 13 touchdown catches (to go with 1,268 yards).

If only we had a crystal ball to see that Cedric Benson would get 301 carries in 2009, despite missing three games due to injury.  Benson’s 318 touches, 1,362 total yards and six touchdowns far exceeded expectations, but he wasn’t the only player to step it up this year.  Dallas Cowboys’ wide receiver Miles Austin played himself into the “elite” receiver category in 2009.  Austin’s 81 catches (on 124 targets) led to 1,320 yards and 11 scores, good for the third best fantasy-line for a wide receiver behind only Johnson and Randy Moss.  In Pittsburgh, Rashard Mendenhall took advantage of an injury to Willie Parker, took the Steelers’ RB1 job and rumbled his way to 1,108 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground, while adding 25 receptions for 261 yards and a score through the air.  Both Austin and Mendenhall have solidified their jobs atop the depth charts for 2010.

A few others who are have locked in their jobs for 2010 include: Minnesota Vikings WR Sidney Rice (121 targets, 83 recs, 1,312 yards, 8 TD), New York Giants WR Steve Smith (157 targets, 107 recs, 1,220 yards, 7 TD), Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (230 touches, 1,417 yards, 8 TD), Denver Broncos rookie RB Knowshon Moreno (275 touches, 1,160 yards, 9 TD) and Arizona Cardinals rookie RB Beanie Wells (188 touches, 936 yards, 7 TD). 

Though they’ve locked in their 2010 spots for their NFL teams, fantasy football owners have to be wary of Moreno and Wells in 2010 simply because of the undeniable existence of the “sophomore slump”.  In 2009, a handful of second-year players, some first and second rounders, fell victim to the cursed slump, and thus, many fantasy teams were adversely impacted.  Matt Forte, a top five pick in many leagues, couldn’t crack the 1,000-yard rushing barrier, and though his receiving prowess netted him 57 catches and 471 yards, his 1,400 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns were not worthy of a first round draft pick.  Even worse, Steve Slaton battled injury and fumbles, and totaled just 854 yards (437 rushing, 417 receiving) and seven scores.  Perhaps, however, no season was more disappointing than that of Denver Broncos WR Eddie Royal.  After 91 catches, 980 yards and five touchdowns in his 2008 rookie campaign, Royal fell off in 2009 to the tune of 37 catches on just 79 targets, 345 yards and zero receiving scores.  For a mid-to-late round “sleeper”, Royal was a major bust.

Speaking of busts, it’s hard to find one from the tight end position in 2009.  In fact, eight tight ends had at least 70 catches, and 11 had six or more touchdowns.  Some could argue Jason Witten was a bust because he failed to live up to the top billing he received going into the season, but despite only two scores, Witten (124 targets, 94 recs) was one of just three tight ends to crack the 1,000-yard receiving plateau.  The other two, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark, were two of the top three at the position in ’09.  Gates (114 targets, 79 recs) amassed 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns, while Clark (132 targets, 100 recs) exploded for 1,106 yards and 10 scores.  Maybe the best of the bunch, though, was the San Francisco 49ers’ Vernon Davis, who hauled in 78 balls on 129 targets for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns.  And to dip a little deeper, if it wasn’t for an injury after just eight games, the Houston Texans’ Owen Daniels might have put up the best numbers of them all.  He finished the year with 40 catches on 58 targets, 519 yards and five scores, which, over a full season, translates to 116 targets, 80 catches, 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Okay, so we’ve discussed some of the top dogs from 2009, some of the disappointments and a few of the sleepers who stepped it up, now it’s time to dole out MVP honors. 

Runner-up: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Rice was a mid-round sleeper in August, and ran away with the Ravens’ RB1 job – literally – as soon as the season started.  The stocky second-year back had anything but a sophomore slump.  Rice reeled off 332 touches, led all running backs in receptions (78) and receiving yards (702), ran for over 1,300 yards and reached pay dirt eight times.  As one of two players in the NFL to surpass the 2,000 yard-from-scrimmage mark in 2009 (not at the QB position), Rice is a deserving recipient of this year’s MVP runner-up.

MVP: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Johnson is a beast.  We could just leave it at that, but we won’t.  The numbers speak for themselves: 408 touches, 358 rushing attempts, 2,006 rushing yards, 2,509 yards from scrimmage, 16 touchdowns, 11 straight 100-yard games, 12 on the season.  Like Rice, Johnson avoided the sophomore slump.  In fact, he laughed it off as myth.  I played in a league with a guy who drafted Johnson with the 12th pick in the first round, and snagged Ray Rice in the 8th.  Needless to say, he was our league champion.  The only question surrounding Johnson next year might be the workload he endured this year.  Despite that, it’s a good bet the prize of the Tennessee Titans will be the top prize in 2010 fantasy football drafts.

Here’s a look at the final Targets & Touches boards for 2009.

Full story

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

As we roll into the final week of the NFL regular season, the NFC playoff teams are locked, five 8-7 teams are fighting for the wildcard spots in the AFC and many fantasy football champions have been determined. For those fantasy owners still playing, get ready for a big week from some unheralded players.

In Week 16, the Indianapolis Colts sent their starters to the bench for the second half, and thus, opportunities were aplenty for the second-stringers. The oft-injured Donald Brown totaled 16 touches, and despite amassing just 34 yards, scored a touchdown. Austin Collie – not exactly a “second-stringer” – had 94 yards on six receptions (7 targets). In Week 17, against the Jairus Byrd-less Buffalo Bills, Collie and Brown are both excellent fantasy plays. Buffalo remains worst in the league against the run, and without the outstanding rookie safety Byrd, their secondary is a lot weaker.

Speaking of weak secondaries, Tom Brady picked apart the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday to the tune of four touchdowns. Brady tossed the ball Wes Welker’s way 13 times, and in true Welker fashion, the shifty receiver caught each and every one of them for 138 yards. Randy Moss got just five looks, but he made them count: four catches, three scores. With the Patriots’ playoff spot locked, there’s a chance Bill Belichick will take a page from the Indianapolis Colts’ playbook in Week 17 and give his starters a second half rest against the Houston Texans. However, a win by Houston could secure their first playoff birth in franchise history, and could mean another meeting with the Patriots in the first round of the playoffs. So what does this mean for fantasy football owners? Be wary of the Patriots, but play your Texans! In fact, with their teams competing for those final two playoff spots, play all your New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos, too. The best fantasy match-ups will be in Denver and Oakland, as the Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs – making Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Marshall, Kyle Orton and Correll Buckhalter all solid starts – and the Ravens face the Raiders – Ray Rice; need I say more? Okay, I will. Willis McGahee, despite just two touches in Week 16, could be a factor.

Two running backs who were factors in Week 16 but probably weren’t in your starting lineup were the Green Bay Packers’ Brandon Jackson and the San Diego Chargers’ Darren Sproles. Both backs scored three times – Jackson on eight touches, Sproles on just seven. The Chargers have already clinched a first round bye, and the Packers are in as a wildcard. The backups should get some significant time here. Sproles is a key cog in the return game, so he could find the pine. The real play here could be Mike Tolbert, who had 12 touches for 71 yards in Week 16. Jackson will probably share time with Ahman Green, but could carry the majority of the workload in place of Ryan Grant.

One final note to point out: Let’s not overlook Roddy White’s 14 target, eight reception, 139-yard, two touchdown effort for the Atlanta Falcons or Jabar Gaffney’s eight target, seven catch, 69-yard, two touchdown performance for the Denver Broncos in Week 16.

Take a look at Week 16’s targets and touches grids, and keep in mind who has something to play for in Week 17. (*=2 games, **=1 game)

Full story

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

As the season winds down, the fantasy football playoffs heat up, and the battle for points (in non-head-to-head leagues) rages on to the bitter end.  For those who took chances on some unheralded sleepers in Week 15 (ala the Cleveland Browns’ Chris Jennings or the Houston Texans’ Arian Foster, as advised in this column (sorry)), you may be on the outside looking in.  Who would have expected Jennings, coming off a solid Week 14 against the Pittsburgh Steelers’ top-rated run defense, to take a backseat to the heat-seeking missile that was Jerome Harrison?  If you happened to be one of the prophetic owners who gave Harrison a starting nod, it’s time to send the sports almanac back to the future.  Harrison’s 36 Week 15 touches led the league, and his 286 rushing yards were 3rd best all time!  298 total yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns ain’t bad.  Don’t expect it again in Week 16, despite a good match-up against the Oakland Raiders.

Chris Johnson and Ray Rice owners were disappointed by their top RB’s efforts on Sunday, as neither hit paydirt.  Johnson’s 31 touches amounted to 159 yards, but he lost a fumble along the way.  Rice, too, couldn’t find the end zone, and barely crested 100 total yards (104) on 21 touches.  Neither back broke the 100-yard rushing barrier. 

Three runners who did trample past 100 yards were Jamaal Charles, Jonathan Stewart and Beanie Wells.  As mentioned last week, Charles is playing himself into RB1 status.  He amassed 170 yards from scrimmage and a score in Week 15, and has accumulated 410 yards and three touchdowns over the past three weeks.  Stewart, getting the bulk of the work thanks to an injury to DeAngelo Williams, ran for 109 yards and score and caught two passes for 14 yards and a score.  Wells, seemingly having seized the starting role away from Tim Hightower, exploded for his first career 100-yard game, totaling 123 yards on 18 touches while adding a touchdown.  Of the three mentioned backs, Wells has the best Week 16 match-up against the St. Louis Rams. Charles faces a tough Cincinnati defense, while Stewart will do battle with the resurgent New York Giants.

Speaking of the Giants, if you hadn’t heard, Steve Smith broke their single-season reception record last week.  After his five Week 15 catches (on just 7 targets), he now has 90 receptions on the season.  It was the other Steve Smith, however, who lit it up in Week 15 as Carolina’s Smith led the league in targets (14) and receptions (9), and electrified the Panthers’ offense with 157 yards and a touchdown.  A shell of his former self for much of the season, Smith has gained 318 yards and scored twice over the past three weeks (on 14 catches, 25 targets).  He could give the Giants’ fits in Week 16, assuming Matt Moore has more time to throw the ball than Jason Campbell did on Monday night.

Throwing the ball.  That is what the Indianapolis Colts did better than the New Orleans Saints this week, and it is why they now stand as the only undefeated team in football.  Miles Austin (13 targets, 7 catches, 139 yards, TD) and the Cowboys let the game get exciting, but their early lead was too much for Drew Brees and company to overcome.  The Colts also played a tight one, but Peyton Manning managed his team to victory, and Reggie Wayne finally showed some life.  Despite just 7 targets and 5 receptions, Wayne got back into the groove with 132 yards and a score.  The question on all fantasy football owners’ minds is: when will the Colts start to rest their players?  It’s hard to tell, exactly, but it’s best to be prepared with the likes of Austin Collie and Mike Hart when they do.  If you play through to Week 17, the Colts match up against Buffalo and the league’s worst run defense, and Hart could be a good flex play.

One quick side note before you delve into the Targets and Touches numbers: Brandon Marshall came back to Earth from his record-setting Week 14 with a measly 7 catches for 73 yards and a score (on 9 targets). 

Here are the Targets & Touches grids for Week 15.  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

Full story

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

It’s crunch time in the fantasy football world, and for those fortunate enough to be setting their lineups this week, it’s all about finding a way to eek out one more win so there’s a reason to get up next Sunday morning. Okay, that may be going a bit overboard, but it begs the question, what is life once the fantasy football season is over? Here’s to trying to delay the inevitable for at least one more week!

I’d be remiss if I didn’t start this week’s column off by discussing Brandon Marshall’s record-breaking 21-catch performance against the Indianapolis Colts. Marshall’s plethora of Week 14 receptions came on 28 targets and amounted to 200 yards and two scores. Marshall had more targets than nine starting quarterbacks had pass attempts, including Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers and David Garrard. Marshall wasn’t the only elite receiver putting up monster numbers in Week 14, however.

In a decisive home victory for the Houston Texans, Andre Johnson reeled in 11 balls on 15 targets for 193 yards and two touchdowns. No other receiver in the league came near the production of Johnson and Marshall in Week 14, and it’s no surprise to see them leading the pack in production over the past three weeks (Marshall: 47 targets, 34 recs, 380 yards, 3 TD; Johnson: 41-23-359-3). Only two receivers are in the same ballpark over the last three weeks, and one of them is a tight end: Miles Austin (31-23-320-3) and Antonio Gates (21-19-329-3).

Going back to the Colts/Broncos game, the conundrum that is Reggie Wayne continues. Once again, Pierre Garcon (9) was targeted more frequently than Wayne (7), and though Wayne had four catches to Garcon’s two, their yardage was nearly identical (Garcon 39, Wayne 43). Wayne’s totaled just 110 yards and one TD over the past three weeks. That said, the Colts have a great Week 15 match-up against the Jacksonville Jaguars, so if you have Wayne, you’d best deploy him!

By this point in the season, there’s no need to delve into further discussions about the obvious. We all know Chris Johnson (31 touches, 186 yards, 3 TD in Week 14) is a must start every week, regardless of the match-up, and we all know you never bench the likes of Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. However, a few not so obvious names are plowing their way into the discussion, and these are the guys who may have put you over the top in Week 14 and could keep you rolling in Week 15. 

In Week 14, Kansas City Chiefs’ starting tailback Jamaal Charles was fourth in the league in touches (27), and sprinted to 181 yards and a score, good for 24 fantasy points in leagues that don’t give bonuses. Quinton Ganther was handed the starting role for the Washington Redskins, and didn’t disappoint fantasy owners who were willing to plug him into their flex position. Ganther’s 17 touches were good for 93 yards and two touchdowns (21 fantasy points). Charles faces the lowly Cleveland Browns in Week 15, while Ganther will battle the struggling New York Giants. Charles is a must-start, quickly earning his way to fantasy football RB1 status, while Ganther is a good flex play.

Two other running backs who made a splash in Week 14 and could have an impact in the Week to come are Cleveland’s Chris Jennings (20 touches, 73 yards, TD) and Houston’s Arian Foster (17 touches, 88 yards). The Cleveland/Kansas City match-up will be a battle of the running backs, and after Jamaal Charles slashes through the Browns’ front seven, Jennings will get his turn to trample over the Chiefs’ equally poor rush defense. That said, there is, potentially, no more intriguing and unknown commodity in Week 15 than Houston’s Foster. Chris Brown was nearly non-existent in Week 14, and Ryan Moats fumbled again, which means, with Steve Slaton on IR, the door may have just blown wide open for the undrafted rookie to showcase his talent in a Week 15 cakewalk against the St. Louis Rams. Monitor the situation, but with Foster given the nod, he’s a great flex play (and should be considered the Quinton Ganther of Week 15).

A few final notes before you check out this week’s Targets & Touches grids:

Vincent Jackson finally came back to life (11 targets, 7 catches, 120 yards). The Bears sat one Devin but found another, as Devin Aromashodu filled in for the injured Hester and didn’t miss a beat (12 targets, 8 catches, 76 yards, TD). Correll Buckhalter was on crutches at the end of the Broncos/Colts game, and Tim Hightower was shunned by the other kids on the playground Monday night; he got only four touches. This means Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells both just got big value boosts for Week 15 against two of the poorer run defenses in the league, the Oakland Raiders and Detroit Lions.

Let’s examine the Week 14 “Targets and Touches” grids:  (*=2 games)

Full story

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up.  Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

If you’re reading this, it means you’re still alive in your fantasy football league.  There’s no beating around the bush here; it’s win or go home.  Fantasy football adage states, you always start your best players, and at no time is this truer than in the playoffs.  However, when you are in a quandary over a pair of RB or WR2’s, or whom to play in your flex position, go with the trends; go with players who are getting the targets and touches.  Pierre Thomas was the trend play last year, and he won a lot of leagues for a lot of teams.  A couple years ago, Kolby Smith was the guy.  Here are some of this year’s trend plays:

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: As expected, Charles got the bulk of the work for the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, handling 19 touches (18 runs).  It wasn’t the best of games for the shifty back (59 yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost), but over the past three weeks, he’s logged 55 touches (18.3/game), amassed 535 total yards (272 rushing/receiving, 263 return) and scored four touchdowns.  In Week 14, Charles and the Chiefs are up against the WORST run defense in football in the Buffalo Bills.  Charles is a must start fantasy back, and a top-notch RB2.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos: Moreno is running in a timeshare with Correll Buckhalter, but is getting more touches (53 to 46 over the past three weeks), has rushed for 80-plus yards in each of the last four games and has scored three touchdowns in the last two.  Coming off back-to-back 21 touch games, Moreno is a solid flex play/low-end RB2, and can be counted on for at least 15-18 touches, 70-80 yards and a potential TD, despite facing an 18th ranked Indianapolis Colts’ run defense that has given up only eight rushing scores on the season. 

Steve Smith (NYG), Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Robert Meachem: While Roddy White was busy leading the league in targets in Week 13 (20) and Chad Ochocinco was having his best game in weeks (14 targets, 9 receptions, 137 yards, TD), and Larry Fitzgerald (12-8-143-1), Andre Johnson (17-7-99-1) and Calvin Johnson (11-6-123-1) were doing their thing, Smith, Crabtree, Garcon and Meachem were positioning themselves for an effective fantasy football playoff run – because we all know that’s their primary focus at this point in the season!  Despite dropping some big passes, Smith reeled in 6 balls for 110 yards on 13 targets.  Crabtree (12 targets) and Garcon (10 targets) also caught 6 balls, for 60 and 136 yards, respectively.  As for Meachem, well, let’s just say he had a helluva game (10-8-142-1).  He’s scored in five straight, and has eight touchdowns on the year.  The trends point to each of these guys continuing to find success.  Meachem and Crabtree have the best Week 14 match-ups (Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, both near the bottom of the league against the pass), but don’t ignore Smith, who is getting most of the looks from Eli Manning, or Garcon, who leads the Indianapolis Colts in targets, catches and yards over the past three games.

Finally, two topics of note: As disappointing as most of his 2009 season has been, Jason Witten has been coming on of late (31 targets, 306 yards over the past three weeks).  If you have doubts about deploying him this week, think again.  You won’t find a better option on the waiver wire.  In Seattle, the return of Julius Jones (25 touches) meant a lesser workload for Justin Forsett (8 touches).  Sure, the Seahawks won on Sunday, but Jones accumulated just 64 yards (2.56 yards per touch), while Forsett reeled off 34 (4.25 yards per touch) and a score.  Is it just me, or are the Seahawks being stubborn in their deployment of Forsett?  It’s really too bad because Forsett could have been a great Week 14 play against the Houston Texans.

Let’s examine the Week 13 “Targets and Touches” grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

Full story

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up.  Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

It’s that time of year again, the final week before the fantasy football playoffs (in most leagues). More than ever, it’s crucial to examine the trends and match-ups if you want to keep your season rolling. So, without further adieu, let’s get right into it.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

Week 12 flipped the Targets trends on their head. The likes of Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Hines Ward, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and DeSean Jackson – to name a few – did not get enough looks to crack the top 50. Taking their place were some relatively unheralded receivers. The St. Louis Rams’ Danny Amendola (11 targets, 7 receptions, 55 yards) and Donnie Avery (11 targets, 4 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD) were both in the top 5, as were Tennessee Titans’ rookie Kenny Britt (11 targets, 7 receptions, 128 yards, 1 TD) and New York Giants’ second-year man Mario Manningham (11 targets, 5 receptions, 48 yards). The New England Patriots’ Sam Aiken (10 targets, 7 receptions, 90 yards) also cracked the top 10. Moving forward, don’t expect the trend to continue for these out-of-the-woodwork players, as over the past three weeks only Avery ranks in the top 25 in targets (23rd), though it’s worth mentioning Manningham’s 21 targets (over the past three weeks) have come in just two games played.

Examining the numbers more closely, you’ll see some disconcerting trends for players many fantasy football teams count on week-to-week. Coming off a huge Week 11 (5 catches, 126 yards, 1 TD), Greg Jennings got just 6 looks in Week 12, and had 4 catches for a mere 54 yards. Over the past three weeks, Jennings has been targeted just 20 times (an average of 6.7 targets per game) – not great for a “number 1” receiver. In his 126-yard effort in week 11, he got only 7 looks. Take away his 64-yard TD grab, and he had 4 catches for 62 yards. Jennings has big play ability, but don’t be surprised by a 4-5 catch, 50-60 yard effort in Week 13 against the 12th ranked Baltimore Ravens’ pass defense.

Another, even more disturbing trend comes out of San Diego as Vincent Jackson, a stud WR1 for most of the 2009 season, has all but disappeared. Jackson has accumulated a solid stat-line through 12 Weeks (49 receptions, 815 yards, 7 TD), but in Week 12, he got just 5 looks, and pulled down just two balls for 27 yards. Over his past three games, Jackson has been targeted only 14 times (57th among wide receivers) and has but 7 catches for 93 yards. One could argue he’s faced tough defenses over that span (Denver and Philadelphia), but Week 12’s effort – if you can call it that – came against the Kansas City Chiefs and their 30th ranked pass defense. Week 13’s opponent is the defensively challenged Cleveland Browns (24th versus the pass), but counting on Jackson for a big game could be a risky move, even though the match-up dictates success. If you have other, decent options with good match-ups, consider using them in Jackson’s place.

The Touches trends haven’t been nearly as disturbing of late. The usual suspects (Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice) lead the way over the last three weeks, and in Week 12, they were joined by one surprise guest as Larry Johnson reemerged from the depths of irrelevance to finish with 24 touches and 105 yards in his second week with the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite Johnson’s workload, Bernard Scott also saw a lot of action (18 touches, 87 yards). Both will see their touches diminish greatly upon the return of Cedric Benson.

In Denver, Correll Buckhalter (20) received one more touch than Knowshon Moreno (19), but Moreno nearly doubled Buckhalter’s yardage output (107-56) and scored a rushing TD. Barring a setback from the wrist injury suffered on Thanksgiving night against the New York Giants, Moreno is a great play against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. If he is out, Buckhalter could be a solid sleeper.

Of note:

Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant stand to benefit if DeSean Jackson (concussion) is out in Week 13.

LaDainian Tomlinson and Laurence Maroney lead all NFL running backs in touchdowns over the past three weeks with 5.

Despite just 7 targets in Week 12, St. Louis’ Brandon Gibson is 6th in the NFL in targets over the past three weeks with 33.

Now, on to the Week 12 “Targets and Touches” grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

Full story

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up.  Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

Welcome to a special Turkey Day edition of the Forecaster, Bruno Boys enthusiasts.  Week 11 unfolded much like we expected, and Week 12 is sure to serve up a fantasy football feast, so get the gravy ready, and let’s have a look back at the week that was, and what we can expect on this Thanksgiving weekend.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

Terrell Owens has much to be thankful for this Thanksgiving.  In Week 11, Owens was targeted 14 times, and hauled in 9 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown.  The 197 yards are more than 1/3 of T.O’s yearly production to date (563 yards) and the TD was only his second of the year.  Is this a sign of things to come for the soon-to-be 36 year-old receiver?  Let’s not get carried away.  But his Sunday matchup with the 22nd ranked Miami Dolphins’ pass defense is worthy of 3 TURKEY LEGS (out of 5).

Tom Brady has a lot to be thankful for this year.  No, I’m not talking about his life outside football.  (That’s a given.)  I’m talking about his top two receivers, Randy Moss and Wes Welker, who are tied for the league lead in targets over the last three weeks (38), and have combined for 730 yards and 4 TD in that timeframe.  Though Moss may account for all 4 of those scores, Welker is rolling with an out-of-this-world 87% catch rate (33-38).  The New Orleans Saints have given up just 9 passing touchdowns on the year (against 20 interceptions), but the Monday night showdown should be a shootout.  Moss and Welker: 4 TURKEY LEGS.

It wasn’t supposed to be so easy in the Detroit Lions / Cleveland Browns game, as two poor offenses combined for 75 points and proved their defenses are even worse.  Many skill position players were saying thanks to their young quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford and Brady Quinn) after the game.  Calvin Johnson (11 targets) finished with 7 receptions, 161 yards and a TD, but hand and knee injuries could sideline him for the Thanksgiving Day quarrel with the Green Bay Packers.  Kevin Smith (16 touches) had a 100-yard receiving day (149 total yards), and added a receiving TD.  And Browns’ rookie Mohamed Massaquoi (12 targets, 5 catches) went for 115 yards and his first NFL touchdown.  How do their Turkey Week matchups look?: Johnson 3 TURKEY LEGS  (check injury status), Smith 2 TURKEY LEGS, Massaquoi (@ Cincinnati)

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist,Josh Fasulo, the owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production. The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

Welcome back, Bruno Boys Nation.  Due to a storm of injuries in Week 10, the Forecast for the coming weeks looks a bit cloudy, specifically at the running back spot.  Let’s take a closer look.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

In Week 10, Michael Turner (high ankle sprain), Cedric Benson (sore abductor muscle), Ronnie Brown (ankle/foot), Brian Westbrook (concussion) and Julius Jones (bruised lung) all left their respective games due to injury. Add Clinton Portis, who had already been deemed “out” prior to week 10, and the injuries opened the door for some unheralded backup running backs to put up fantasy points.

Filling in for Portis, Ladell Betts rumbled for 120 yards and a touchdown on 27 touches (26 carries). Betts’ prospects for Week 11 at Dallas depend on Portis’ progress from a concussion. After the devastating blow to Philadelphia Eagles’ RB1 Brian Westbrook – who suffered his second concussion this month – the Washington Redskins could be and should be cautious with their starting tailback. Some reports state Westbrook’s latest concussion could be career threatening.  We’ll all keep our fingers crossed for the Eagles’ top playmaker. LeSean McCoy – who received only 6 touches and managed just 23 yards on Sunday – will benefit on the field from Westbrook’s absence. 

In the absence of Michael Turner – who bowled his way to 111 yards on 9 touches (all carries) before leaving Sunday’s loss to Carolina – Jason Snelling filled in admirably (21 touches, 93 total yards, TD). With Turner’s status for Week 11 against the New York Giants in question, Snelling could again see 20-plus touches, even if Jerious Norwood returns from missing the past 5 games. And though 20-plus touches may be unlikely, Week 11 could see more of Cincinnati Bengals’ rookie Bernard Scott. Scott got the majority of the action against Pittsburgh after Cedric Benson left the field, and though his 14 touches only amounted to 54 yards, he returned a kickoff for 6 and showed a willingness to run hard. Cincinnati added Kansas City Chiefs’ castoff Larry Johnson for depth, but Scott would likely be the starter were Benson to miss any time. Against the lowly Oakland Raiders in Week 11, Scott could be a solid flex option.

In Dolphin/Wildcat country, Ronnie Brown managed 14 touches, 98 yards and a TD before switching his spikes for a set of crutches. He will likely be sidelined in Week 11, and as a result, the Thursday night version of the Wildcat may be a bit subdued. Ricky Williams (22 touches, 107 yards) will pick up the slack against the 25th ranked Carolina Panthers rush defense. In the opposite corner of the country, Julius Jones’ lung injury blew open an already cracked door in Seattle for Justin Forsett. Forsett took advantage by taking advantage of the Arizona Cardinals for 149 total yards and a score on 22 touches (17 rushes, 5 receptions). Forsett will start Week 11, but is presumably a bad play against the Minnesota Vikings’ purple wall. However, if he’s available in your league, go get him!  Beyond Minnesota, Forsett has a user-friendly schedule for the remainder of 2009 (@ St. Louis, San Francisco, @ Houston, Tampa Bay, @ Green Bay).

Not the entire “Touches” world was turned upside down on Sunday. The usual suspects continued to lead the charge as Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson each played with the rock 35 times, Frank Gore got into the action 29 times, Matt Forte and Maurice Jones-Drew each went for more than 25, and Ray Rice was his usual solid self (23 touches). 

On the “Targets” side of the game, it was almost business as usual. Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne both had big days, each with 12-plus targets, 100-plus yards and 2 TDs. Several other WR1s were at or near the top of the targets charts: DeSean Jackson (16), Devin Hester (14), Calvin Johnson (13), Dwayne Bowe (11), Roddy White (11) .  T.J. Houshmandzadeh led the league with 17. 

Of note: Dwayne Bowe has been suspended 4 games by the NFL (effective immediately) after testing positive for performance-enhancing substances. Roy Williams had 105 yards and a TD in Week 10, and over the past 3 games, Williams has 2 more targets (22), 2 more catches (12) and 69 more yards than Miles Austin. Jason Avant exploded in Philadelphia for 156 yards on 8 catches (9 targets). In Kansas City, Jamaal Charles (Week 10’s Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week) finally got his touches (22, 18 carries-4 receptions) and reeled off 117 total yards and a score against the Oakland Raiders.

Now, onto the Week 10 “Targets and Touches” grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

Full story

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist,Josh Fasulo, the owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production. The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

Welcome back to the Forecaster (Reviewer), Bruno Boys’ faithful.  Week 9 got some stars back aligned, and Week 10 promises some intriguing fantasy football match-ups, so without further adieu, let’s get right into it. 

TARGETS & TOUCHES

Unlike with Week 8, quarterbacks came out throwing in Week 9. As a result, 53 players were targeted 7 or more times, with 18 guys getting 10 or more looks. Eight players topped 100 yards receiving, and 10 (WR / TE) scored more than 15 fantasy points (compared to just 3 in week 8). A tight end led the targets charge, as Dallas Clark was tops in the league with Peyton Manning looking his way 16 times. Clark pulled down 14 of those balls for 119 yards. Clark leads all tight ends in targets (31) and receptions (25) over the past 3 weeks, and his 25 catches are second in the league only to teammate Reggie Wayne, who is setting the pace in both targets (38) and receptions (27) for the year.

A few big games came from guys who got too few looks to make this week’s list (below).  Vincent Jackson (5 catches, 58 yards, 2 TD), James Jones (4 catches, 103 yards, TD) and Robert Meachem (5 catches, 98 yards, TD) just missed the list with 6 targets. Jason Hill and Chris Chambers – making his Chiefs debut – both scored 2 touchdowns, but both were targeted just 4 times. Don’t expect Hill to repeat this performance – the 49ers’ receiver has been targeted just 5 times all season – but with a full week to learn his new offense, expect Chambers to be a consistent target of Matt Cassel’s from this point forward, meaning he could be a viable flex option, depending on the match-up.

Speaking of viable flex options, here are a couple guys who are finally showing signs of life (after many of us expected big things from them at the start of the year). Surrounding two horrific receiving weeks – where he totaled 12 targets, 2 catches and 10 yards, though scored 2 special teams TD – Eddie Royal turned in two solid performances: Week 5 against New England (15 targets, 10 receptions, 90 yards) and Week 9 against the Broncos (10 targets, 5 catches, 74 yards). Earl Bennett had been consistently mediocre all season long, but in Week 9, his 11 targets were 7th among wide receivers, and he caught 7 passes for 93 yards. Are these signs of things to come? Don’t bet your fantasy life on it.

One thing you can bet your fantasy life on, however, is Cedric Benson getting touches. Benson has been mentioned in this column several times over the past few weeks, and with good reason.  His 34 Week 9 touches (all rushes) again led the league, and over the past 3 weeks, despite playing just two games, Benson has 4 more touches (71) than his next closest competitor, DeAngelo Williams (67). On the season, Benson’s 208 touches (198 runs) are most in the league, and he’s racked up 903 total yards and 6 TDs. Though you could argue Benson isn’t the top fantasy RB, you could make a good case for him as 2009’s fantasy MVP because if you were smart (lucky) enough to snag him in your draft, most likely he’s your RB2 and you’re the top dog in your league. For the record, Benson is on pace for 416 touches and 394 carries. 2010 “Curse of 370” anybody? Who knows? It hasn’t affected Michael Turner too badly in ’09 (161 touches, 755 yards, 10 TD).

A few notes before you peruse this week’s Targets & Touches grids:

Coming off a monster Week 8, Ryan Moats scored a TD (receiving), but averaged only 2.8 yards/touch and coughed one up. Steve Slaton also scored, didn’t fumble, but averaged just 3.2 yards/touch.

After the release of Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles (9 touches) and Kolby Smith (5 touches) will split time in Kansas City. Charles has more upside, and plays an Oakland D in Week 10 that has given up the most rushing TDs in the league (13). It’s worth mentioning, KC plays Buffalo and Cleveland, the two worst rush defenses in Weeks 14 and 15 (the first two rounds of the fantasy playoffs). 

Clinton Portis will likely miss Week 10 with a concussion. Ladell Betts will start, but don’t expect the 30 year-old to shred the Broncos like Rashard Mendenhall did on Monday night. 60-70 yards and a score are possible.

Finally, Randy Moss and Mike Sims-Walker put up the same line this week (6-147-TD), but Moss had three more targets (11-8).

Now, onto the Week 9 “Targets and Touches” grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

Full story

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist,Josh Fasulo, the owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production. The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

Week 8 was a mild week for fantasy football receivers, as only three players broke the 100-yard plateau and scored over 15 fantasy points (in standard scoring leagues): Reggie Wayne, Roddy White and Vincent Jackson.  The same cannot be said for fantasy runners, as six backs scampered past the century mark, and 15 went for 15 or more fantasy football points.  In a game that featured the two worst pass defenses in football, it was the running backs who shined.  Chris Johnson led the Tennessee Titans’ to win number one with 24 carries, 228 yards and 2 TDs.  He finished the day with 26 total touches and 239 yards.  Time of possession was dominated by Tennessee (39:43 to 20:17), thus Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew rarely saw the ball (9 touches), but when he did, he made it count, reeling off 8 rushes for 177 yards and 2 TDs.  Shockingly, no receivers were fantasy factors in this match-up.

Around the league, it was no surprise to see some of the game’s top backs doing their thing.  Matt Forte, Ray Rice and Thomas Jones all had 28 touches, and all had more than 100 total yards – though Jones, unlike the others, failed to score.  Adrian Peterson was up to his old tricks against the Green Bay Packers (26 touches, 141 yards, TD), and Steven Jackson finally hit paydirt, accumulating 166 total yards on 25 touches.  The story of Week 8, though, belongs to a man owned in less than 1 percent of fantasy football leagues before Sunday.

After Steve Slaton lost a fumble for the 438th time in ’09 – that was an exaggeration, if you didn’t realize – he was benched for former Philadelphia Eagle running back Ryan Moats.  The 26 year-old Moats went on to log 25 touches (23 rushes, 2 receptions) and run his way to 151 total yards and 3 TDs.  For fantasy owners who spent a top draft pick on Slaton, this spells bad news.  Despite the fumbles, Slaton had been putting up consistently solid fantasy numbers over the past several games, but now it’s likely he and Moats will have some type of RBBC in Week 9 against the Indianapolis Colts.

Speaking of the Colts, Peyton Manning slung the ball 48 times in leading Indianaplis to a 7-0 record, and of those 48, 19 went to Reggie Wayne.  Wayne’s 20 targets (one from Joseph Addai) were seven more than any other receiver in the league, and understandably, his 12 catches, 147 yards and a TD were best in the league, too.  It’s no surprise to see big production from Wayne (3rd in NFL in targets over the past three games, despite playing only two games), but 13 targets to Dustin Keller (8 catches, 76 yards, TD) and 10 to Tim Hightower (8 receptions, 57 yards, 16 total touches, 96 yards, TD) won’t happen every week. 

Quick hitters: It’s good to see Greg Jennings getting it going (12 targets, 8 receptions, 88 yards, TD).  He’s tied for 4th in the league in targets over the past three games with 28.  With Owen Daniels’ season ending injury, Kevin Walter’s value goes up.  Chris Cooley apparently isn’t done for the year, but for at least the next three weeks, don’t forget about the guy I mentioned last week: Fred Davis.  With the Arizona Cardinals falling behind early, it was back to business as usual, as Tim Hightower regained the touches he’d lost to Beanie Wells the week before.  And finally, though Mike Bell got more touches (17) than Pierre Thomas (16) on Monday Night, it’s readily apparent Thomas is the more talented of the two (100 yards, 2 TDs to Bell’s 49 yards, 0 TD), and he should see his touches go up a touch.

Here are the Week 8 Targets and Touches grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

Full story