Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Allie Fontana & James Burulcich
- Edited by Allie Fontana

Year in and year out defenses are often the deciding factor in who hoists the Lombardi Trophy come season’s end. In the world of fantasy football, defenses are typically relegated to the back pages of fantasy magazines and the last few rounds of our drafts. Should you treat defenses as a necessary evil on your fantasy roster? Definitely not, but you also shouldn’t overpay for one either. Whatever you do, resist the urge to lock up the New York Jets’ defense in the middle rounds of your draft. Fill your roster with additional quality playmakers and then look for your defense in the later rounds or play matchups throughout the season.

Every season there are a handful of under-the-radar or sleeper defenses that could potentially net you the same number of points as the league’s big-name defenses. To ensure that your top skill position picks aren’t gathering points for you in vain, help them out by targeting a defense that will provide you with consistent fantasy points on a weekly basis and also allow you to have a lineup deep with player talent. Here are five defensive units that are frequently overlooked by fantasy owners on draft day, yet have the potential to be significant fantasy factors in 2010.

Atlanta Falcons – The 2009 Atlanta Falcons defense was nothing to write home about. They finished the year tied for No. 26 in sacks with 28, in large part due to the lackluster play of their top defensive end John Abraham who managed just 4.5 sacks, down from 16.5 in 2008. The inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks wasn’t Atlanta’s only defensive weakness. They were No. 28 in pass defense letting up 242 yards per game, giving up 55 pass plays of 20 yards or more, and picking off just 15 passes. The tale of woe extended to the Falcons’ special teams unit that failed to contribute a touchdown all season. Finishing statistically at the bottom of the league is not something that a team with playoff aspirations in 2010 can repeat.

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- Written by Ryan Czopek
- Edited by Allie Fontana

There is a saying in the NFL that anything can happen on any given Sunday. The same goes for fantasy football. A player can put up 24 fantasy points one week and none the next. It’s the unpredictability of the season that makes football and fantasy football so interesting and exciting. No position in fantasy football is as unpredictable as wide receiver. So many receivers are fixtures in a fantasy lineup one season and on waivers the next. Just because a player makes the bust list, doesn’t necessarily mean you have to avoid him completely on draft day (though we’ll let you know who to avoid altogether). Some, not all busts are overvalued players, while the majority have seen their situations change (e.g., new team, new coaching staff, upgrade or downgrade of players around them, injuries, etc.) or are likely to have a hard time living up to expectations. Use our 2010 Fantasy Football Busts Wide Receivers list as a guide to move some players down your draft board.

Steve Smith, WR, New York Giants – Last season the “other” Steve Smith had one of the best receiving years in Giants’ team history. Smith came out of nowhere to set a franchise record with 107 receptions and his 1,220 yards were the second most in team history, trailing only Amani Toomer. Used as nothing more than a possession receiver in the slot in 2008, Smith was the receiver who benefited most from the loss of Plaxico Burress in 2009. The sure-handed Smith built an early rapport with quarterback Eli Manning and through the first-half of the season, he was arguably the best receiver in the NFL, producing 61 receptions for 719 yards and five touchdowns. As the season wore on, however, opposing defenses used blanket coverage toward Smith’s side of the field and he had a difficult time creating separation. This led to just two touchdown receptions over the Giants’ final seven games.

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Kickers are widely regarded as one of the most unimportant positions on the average fantasy football roster. You will never have to start more than one of them, and with this being the case there is always a kicker on the waiver wire in prime position to give you fantasy football points. However, a careless kicker choice can be devastating for a fantasy football team and decide vital head-to-head match ups.

Remember, just because a player makes the bust list, doesn’t necessarily mean you have to avoid him completely on draft day (though we’ll let you know who to avoid altogether). Some, not all busts are overvalued players, while the majority have seen their situations change (e.g., new team, new coaching staff, upgrade or downgrade of players around them, injuries, etc.) or are likely to have a hard time living up to expectations. Use our 2010 Fantasy Football Busts Kickers list as a guide to move some players down your draft board.

Jay Feely, K, Arizona Cardinals – Jay Feely has had quite possibly the most puzzling career path of any kicker in recent memory. He started his career with the Atlanta Falcons, posting a 78.4-percent field goal percentage his first year. That would get most kickers cut or at least on the hot seat, but the Falcons apparently felt that was acceptable for a rookie. The team was rewarded for their patience with a 76.6-percent the remainder of his time there, a whooping four years, which is actually a lot for most kickers. The fact that they didn’t cut Feely after an atrocious 2003, in which he converted just 19-of-27 can be chalked up as either bizarre behavior or Atlanta saw something that the average NFL fan didn’t.

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Kickers are not exactly highly sought after fantasy football players. Generally they are taken in the last rounds of the draft and are rarely on the same fantasy roster the entire season. Some managers even choose to stream kickers based on match-up, the idea being that point totals for kickers are based more often on the success of their offense than actual ability. No matter how you treat the position, it is a spot that needs to be filled and like in real life, can be the difference between being a champion or the first loser. Anyone who has ever won a match-up by less than three points can attest to the importance of even a few extra points to a success of the team as a whole. That means it’s crucial to have a quality kicker week in and week out even if you’re drafting the position in the last round.

Below are five kickers to target late who could have break out seasons and be that big contributor your fantasy football team needs to put it over the top. When reading about the 2010 Fantasy Football Sleeper Kickers selections, remember these three rules Bruno Boys uses to classify “sleepers”: 1) players who have a chance of outperforming their projection and player ranking; 2) players that should give you a nice return on your draft pick/auction price; 3) some sleepers are also undervalued, not all.

Dan Carpenter, K, Miami Dolphins – Carpenter is only entering his third NFL season, but has already proven himself to be one of the best in the business. He is coming off a strong Pro Bowl season in which he posted an 89-percent field goal percentage, good for fifth in the league for kickers with more than 20 attempts. This isn’t unprecedented for him, either. In 2008 he kicked at an 84-percent clip and went 40-40 on extra points, so we can assume the talent is real and that his 2009 Pro Bowl selection wasn’t a fluke. He also plays in Miami, where it’s 80 degrees and sunny 365 days a year. There might be rain from time to time; however, a passing seagull poses a bigger threat to his accuracy than the Florida weather ever will.

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As much as fantasy football owners hope to find sleepers during the middle-to-late rounds of the draft, the ultimate success of your fantasy season can boil down to how well you avoid the busts - especially among those guys that you draft in the first five rounds. Just because a player makes the bust list, doesn’t necessarily mean you have to avoid him completely on draft day (though we’ll let you know who to avoid altogether). Some, not all busts are overvalued players, while the majority have seen their situations change (e.g., new team, new coaching staff, upgrade or downgrade of players around them, injuries, etc.) or are likely to have a hard time living up to expectations. Use our 2010 Fantasy Football Busts Tight Ends list as a guide to move some players down your draft board.

Jeremy Shockey, TE, New Orleans Saints – As mentioned in our tight end sleeper article, Shockey is now entering his ninth season in the NFL and has yet to play a full 16-game season. For such a big name, Shockey has also never had more than seven touchdowns and 900 yards receiving in a single season, so he has always been relatively overvalued. This season could prove to be the year that Shockey slips into obscurity because the Saints now have two tight ends, David Thomas and rookie Jimmy Graham, who can push aside the veteran.

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The tight end position in fantasy football has always added a certain element of strategy to the game. Having a tight end spot reserved on rosters forces owners to stray from just worrying about running backs and wide receivers and deciding on whether or not they want to take a top-tier tight end, and when they want to draft their stud. 

Many top tight ends can be considered WR2 options, but if you miss out on a stud, you can get stuck with a dud in your lineup all season. This year, more than any other years, the talent at tight end is rich. With job splits and injuries, however, many tight ends will emerge from the waiver wires and become solid pieces to fantasy lineups down the stretch. The following 2010 Fantasy Football Sleeper Tight Ends list is made up of both lesser names with loads of potential value, or mid-range players that have a chance to break into the top tier this season. 

David Thomas, TE, New Orleans Saints – Despite being listed behind Jeremy Shockey on the depth chart last season, Thomas managed 356 yards and a touchdown on just 35 catches. Shockey, who will be discussed more in our tight end busts article, is entering his ninth season in the NFL, and has still yet to play a full 16-game season. He is now 30 years old and on a steady decline, so the time is right for Thomas to take over.

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- Written by Ryan Czopek
- Edited by Allie Fontana

The parity in the NFL makes fantasy football statistics harder to predict than other fantasy sports such as basketball. In fantasy basketball, many players are consistent with their career averages regardless of the situation they’re playing in. Fantasy football couldn’t be more opposite. Consistent statistical seasons are hard to find over time from any position in fantasy football, but especially at wide receiver. Receivers are a fickle bunch and often have a great statistical year one year, followed by a horrible statistical year the next. So many factors affect whether they are successful, such as changing quarterbacks midseason or the rise of a unknown running back. Whatever it is, fantasy football owners are used to dealing with the surprises that make fantasy football so much fun to begin with. Here are seven wide receivers for the 2010 season that made our list of 2010 Fantasy Football Sleeper Wide Receivers.

Johnny Knox, WR, Chicago Bears – Knox had a solid rookie season in 2009, registering 45 receptions for 527 yards and five touchdowns. He was one of the few bright spots in Chicago’s somewhat dysfunctional offense. A fifth-round pick from Abilene-Christian College, Knox also excelled on special teams, averaging 29 yards per return. New offensive coordinator Mike Martz brings his pass-happy offensive playbook to the Bears this season. Martz is responsible for the St. Louis Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf” offense from 1999 to 2001 that made stars out of receivers Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. Knox compares favorably to these former Ram standouts. Martz was also successful in Detroit, turning the somewhat forgettable quarterback Jon Kitna into a 4000-yard passer. 

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As much as fantasy football owners hope to find sleepers during the middle-to-late rounds of the draft, the ultimate success of your fantasy season can boil down to how well you avoid the busts - especially among those guys that you draft in the first five rounds. Just because a player makes the bust list, doesn’t necessarily mean you have to avoid him completely on draft day (though we’ll let you know who to avoid altogether). Some, not all busts are overvalued players, while the majority have seen their situations change (e.g., new team, new coaching staff, upgrade or downgrade of players around them, injuries, etc.) or are likely to have a hard time living up to expectations. Use our 2010 Fantasy Football Busts Running Backs list as a guide to move some players down your draft board.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants – Jacobs played through a torn meniscus in his left knee in 2009, and that led to a disappointing season despite a career-high 224 carries.  The workload seems to have hurt him, as he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and scored just five touchdowns, after scoring 15 touchdowns and rushing for 1,089 yards in 2008.  Jacobs’ size (6’4”, 264 pounds) and bruising running style has made him injury prone throughout his career, and the fact he signed a sizable contract extension prior to last season may have affected his general assertiveness or “edge” as a runner (see Shaun Alexander, 2005-2006). 

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With the level of attrition at the running back position, fantasy football owners who unearth a sleeper or two on draft day can have a decided advantage over the course of the season.  The following players make our 2010 Fantasy Football Sleeper Running Backs list.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles – The offseason departure of Brian Westbrook opens the door for McCoy to become the Eagles’ primary ball carrier.  As a rookie in 2009, he set an Eagles’ rookie record of 637 rushing yards along with 40 receptions for 308 yards.  His touchdown total (four) was a little lackluster; however it stands to rise with a full workload in 2010. McCoy’s fantasy football value is good in standard leagues, yet receives a bump in Points Per Reception (PPR) leagues.  He is currently ranked 10th in our running back cheat sheet for PPR leagues.
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As much as fantasy football owners hope to find sleepers during the middle-to-late rounds of the draft, the ultimate success of your fantasy season can boil down to how well you avoid the busts - especially among those guys that you draft in the first five rounds. Just because a player makes the bust list, doesn’t necessarily mean you have to avoid him completely on draft day (though we’ll let you know who to avoid altogether). Some, not all busts are overvalued players, while the majority have seen their situations change (e.g., new team, new coaching staff, upgrade or downgrade of players around them, injuries, etc.) or are likely to have a hard time living up to expectations. Use our 2010 Fantasy Football Busts Quarterbacks list as a guide to move some players down your draft board.

Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings – After much back and forth, Brett Favre finally decided to come back to the Minnesota Vikings for the 2010 season. He already missed camp and some preseason, which is not a surprise for Favre. Last season, his first with Minnesota, Favre led the Vikings to the NFC Championship game. He also had a great season individually, throwing for 4,202 yards with 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions. For those who have followed Favre throughout his amazing career should know that the seven interceptions was an aberration and nothing more. Favre takes risks and gambles a lot, and was lucky to throw just seven interceptions.

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